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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004835 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: ABRIDGED WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT DUE TO KEY 
ELECTIONS IN GUJARAT, HIMACHAL PRADESH 
 
REF: A) MUMBAI 604 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The upcoming winter session of Parliament 
is likely to start a week sooner (on November 15) and run 
shorter than in previous years.  The condensed schedule would 
allow party leaders a few days of full-scale campaigning for 
state assembly elections in Gujarat on December 11 and 16 and 
Himachal Pradesh on December 16.  The US-India civil nuclear 
initiative is likely to dominate Parliamentary discussions 
during the session (septel).  The two state elections will be 
straight contests between the Congress Party and the 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since other parties have 
virtually no presence in either state.  Both parties attach 
considerable importance to these elections as snapshot 
indicators of their national appeal as well as for the 
momentum they hope to derive in the run-up to Parliamentary 
elections before mid-2009.  At this point, the BJP is 
comfortably positioned to oust the Congress from power in 
Himachal.  The contest appears to be closer in Gujarat, where 
BJP's Narendra Modi has a narrow edge in his attempt to 
retain power for a record third consecutive term for him and 
fifth straight time for the BJP.  A better than expected 
result for the Congress party, especially in Gujarat, would 
embolden it to confront more aggressively the Left parties 
(and its UPA allies), if IAEA talks are still stalled in 
December.  End Summary 
 
BJP, Congress Agree on Timing 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Normally the winter session begins the third week of 
November and runs to Christmas.  Under the proposed revised 
schedule recommended by the Cabinet Committee on 
Parliamentary Affairs#and expected to be confirmed by the 
Cabinet soon, the winter session would begin the week of 
November 15 and end on December 7.  The UPA proposal to shift 
the session schedule has the support of the opposition BJP, 
which also is eager to have its national leaders join the 
campaigning in Gujarat and Himachal.  The Left parties, which 
have neither presence nor prospects in either state, 
criticized the proposed revision of the Parliamentary 
calendar as a dilution of democratic processes.  Agreement 
between the Congress Party and the BJP on any issue is rare 
in the current political environment in India.  Their 
convergence on the timing of the winter session reflects the 
enormous importance the Congress Party and the BJP place on 
both state elections. 
 
BJP v Congress Party: Head to Head 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In both states, the elections will be a straight 
contest between the Congress Party and the BJP as third 
parties have virtually no following in either state.  While 
local factors play a dominant role in state elections, the 
performance of the two parties in Gujarat and Himachal would 
provide a good snapshot indicator of their national strength. 
 A strong showing by either party in these elections would 
provide it momentum in the run-up to Parliamentary elections 
before mid-2009.  Gujarat is a more crucial battleground for 
both parties, not only because it has 26 seats in Parliament 
(compared to four for Himachal) but also because of the 
Hindu-Muslim dynamic, which has intensified since Chief 
Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2001.  Gujarat is 
also a "bellwether" Indian state that is leading the Indian 
economic resurgence.  At this point, five-six weeks before 
the elections, the BJP is ahead in both states. 
 
Himachal: BJP Comfortably Positioned 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Congress Party, which ousted the BJP in 
Himachal Pradesh in 2003 with a clear majority, is on the 
back foot today in the state.  It is expected to suffer from 
a strong anti-incumbency vote.  Infighting, defections, 
charges of rampant corruption in government, and a water 
shortage in the capital, Shimla, have also weakened its 
prospects.  The betting appears to be on how far the Congress 
Party will fall in the elections. 
 
Gujarat: BJP Has Narrow Edge 
---------------------------- 
 
NEW DELHI 00004835  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In Gujarat, where Narendra Modi is vying for his 
third consecutive term in office, anti-incumbency will work 
against the BJP.  It may not be a decisive factor, however, 
because Narendra Modi's reputation as an able administrator 
and the architect of Gujarat's impressive economic 
development, combined with a weak Congress Party organization 
in the state, appears to be outweighing the anti-incumbency 
drag.  Most pundits have the BJP narrowly ahead at this time 
(Ref A). 
 
¶6.  (SBU) A wild card will be the communal and caste 
undertones which are always a factor in Gujarat but have 
become even more prominent since Modi rode the aftermath of 
the 2002 riots to further power.  A recent story by a 
newsmagazine about Modi's role in condoning the riots has 
been getting front page attention in the print and electronic 
news media in Delhi (septel).  Congress Party allies like 
Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav have seized on the 
assertions and demanded Modi's dismissal.  Many observers 
believe that the more the election becomes about Modi and his 
role in the riots, the better his chances to retain power 
because such focus strengthens his anti-Muslim, Hindu 
nationalism credentials, consolidates the right wing Hindu 
vote in the state and serves to intimidate the Muslim 
minority from enthusiastically participating in the electoral 
process.  Indeed, as a sign of this, the Gujarat unit of the 
Congress Party has remained silent about the allegations; 
while the Congress can count on the Muslim vote in the state, 
state party leaders would not want to alienate Hindu voters 
who can turn the tide against the BJP. 
 
Comment: BJP Hopes to Keep Win Streak Going 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) For the BJP, winning the two states would add to a 
string of solid victories it and/or its allies have rung up 
in the last two years -- Bihar, Punjab and Uttarkhand.  It 
would also allow the party to push under the rug its poor 
performance in the Uttar Pradesh elections in May 2007 as an 
anomaly driven by unique local factors.  The BJP has been 
racked by infighting, leadership and ideological battles, and 
organizational ineptitude since its loss in the 2004 
parliamentary elections. Strong performances in Himachal and 
Gujarat would give the party confidence that its internal 
disorder has not affected the appeal of its message in those 
states and, pssobly, nationawide. 
 
Comment: Congress Hopes to Exceed Expectations 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Were the Congress to fare better than expected in 
Gujarat and Himachal, it would become emboldened to confront 
more aggressively its UPA allies and the Left parties as they 
attempt to influence UPA policy for their narrow interests. 
In particular, the Congress Party will push more forcefully 
for the US-India civil nuclear agreement (if the IAEA talks 
are still stalled) and will be more willing to risk early 
Parliamentary elections.  A strong showing by the Congress 
Party in Gujarat against the BJP's Narendra Modi, the poster 
boy of right-wing anti-Muslim Hindu nationalist ideology, 
would also enhance the appeal of the Congress Party to the 
Muslim community around the country in the run up to 
Parliamentary elections before mid-2009. 
MULFORD