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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 004423 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KE
SUBJECT: 'Majimbo' -  Kenya Finds An Election Issue 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 4402; B. NAIROBI 4269; C. NAIROBI 4258; 
 
¶D. NAIROBI 4235 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The issue of federalism - 'majimbo' - has 
recently emerged as a main plank in the opposition 
platform and a topic of intense public debate.  Majimbo 
proponents - which include both major opposition parties 
- claim that devolving power to Kenya's provinces will 
allow citizens more control over local development and 
will decrease income inequality.  Majimbo opponents - led 
by President Kibaki's coalition party - counter that the 
proposal is a recipe for bureaucratic inefficiency and 
ethnic conflict.  The idea of devolution has been around 
since independence but was never implemented.  Kikuyus - 
President Kibaki's ethnic group and Kenya's largest ' 
have never seen majimbo to be in their interest. 
Populist, ethnic exclusivist majimbo slogans were used in 
the 1990's to spark politically-motivated ethnic 
violence.  Current majimbo proponents are trying to 
convince voters that this time, it will be different. 
Even without violence and ethnic exclusion, however, 
devolution on the scale described by 'majimbo' proponents 
would require a major restructuring of the Kenyan state, 
with all the upheaval that might entail.  Whether 
opposition candidates Raila Odinga or Kalonzo Musyoka 
would ultimately be willing or able to radically 
decentralize Kenyan government is questionable.  End 
Summary. 
 
Majimbo as Federalism or Devolution 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) 'Majimbo' is a Swahili word for 'regions' and 
most describe it as federalism or devolution from the 
current highly centralized political system. (Note: Kenya 
does have local administrative structures, but district 
and provincial commissioners are presidential appointees. 
Elected local councils have limited authority to manage 
services funded by local taxes and central government 
grants, like President Kibaki's popular Community 
Development Fund initiative which divests 7.5 percent of 
the government's budget to local administrative bodies. 
End Note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Majimbo proponents say that devolution of power 
will allow citizens more control over local development 
and will improve income distribution.  The devolution 
model comes from the 2004 draft constitution (known as 
the Bomas Draft).  The Bomas Draft mandated elected 
district governments with legislative and budgetary 
authority.  (Comment: If implemented in its entirety the 
Bomas Draft would radically alter the manner in which 
Kenyans govern themselves, creating the U.S. equivalent 
of state governments where there were none and ultimately 
divesting a full 65 percent of the entire national budget 
to these state governments' coffers.  End comment.) The 
Bomas draft was shelved by the Kibaki government and 
replaced by the Wako draft, named after the Attorney 
General who heavily diluted the decentralization aspects 
and other key components of the Bomas draft before 
submitting his version for a national referendum.  That 
majimbo-free version was voted down in November 2005. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The two most visible supporters of majimbo are 
the opposition presidential candidates, Orange Democratic 
Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga and Orange Democratic 
Movement - Kenya (ODM-K) leader Kalonzo Musyoka.  Odinga 
claims that devolution is the only way to ensure 
equitable distribution of resources to marginalized 
communities.  Musyoka, too, has focused on the economic 
benefits of devolution, calling majimbo 'economic 
federalism' and a way of allowing provinces to hold on to 
more of their own resources.  Speaking at a rally in 
Coast Province in late October, Musyoka said that Central 
Province had benefited more from federal largesse than 
the Coast, even though Coast Province contributed far 
more to the federal treasury.  This is a common complaint 
on the coast (ref A). 
 
Majimbo as a Recipe for Ethnic Conflict 
 
NAIROBI 00004423  002 OF 003 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Opponents of majimbo - most prominently 
President Kibaki, running for re-election on a Party of 
National Unity (PNU) ticket - claim that a 'majimbo 
state' would promote tribalism, ethnic-based land 
grabbing, and other tensions. 
 
¶6. (SBU) One reason for this fear is the long-standing 
political and economic dominance of the Kikuyu, the most 
populous ethnic group in Kenya (and President Kibaki's 
tribe).  Unlike many of Kenya's other ethnic groups whose 
population is concentrated in their ancestral districts, 
the Kikuyu are spread throughout the nation.  Many Kikuyu 
fear that conversion to a majimbo state will mean that 
they will be forced out of their land and businesses.  A 
District Commissioner in Nyanza Province recently told 
PolOff that in his area, majimbo means "This is our 
tribe's area, so everyone else get out." (Note: Nyanza 
Province is predominantly Luo and home to ODM's Raila 
Odinga, himself a Luo. End Note.)  Some ODM campaigners 
have encouraged this populist, and ethnic exclusivist 
view of majimbo, to the embarrassment of some of their 
more responsible comrades (ref B). 
 
Majimbo's History: Inefficient and Divisive 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Kenya's first constitution, passed in 1963, 
contained provisions for local governance that had been 
advocated by the smaller tribes and white settlers; 
however, they were never fully implemented.  The Kenya 
African National Union (KANU) party, which won Kenya's 
first post-independence elections, considered majimboism 
a threat to national unity.  Scholars and politicians 
also criticized the 1963 majimbo provisions as hastily 
negotiated, without clear lines of responsibility, and 
full of unworkable and unfair provisions. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Majimbo entered the public dialogue again in the 
early 1990's as opposition rose against the one-party 
state under President Moi (an ethnic Kalenjin).  To 
maintain Kalenjin dominance in the multi-party elections 
of 1992 and 1997, Kalenjin political leaders and their 
allies in the Rift Valley began a violent intimidation 
campaign that spread to the Coast province and left 
hundreds of Kikuyu dead and approximately 250,000 
displaced.  "Majimbo" was their rallying cry for anti- 
Kikuyu pogroms. 
 
Is Devolution the Answer? 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite its troubled history, the idea of 
devolution has strong appeal to some voters, as the 
federal government has not traditionally allocated 
resources to the provinces in a fair and objective 
manner.  While Kibaki's Constituency Development Fund 
(CDF) now allocates 7.5 percent of the government's total 
revenue to local constituencies for development projects, 
it is not always administered effectively or honestly. 
Also, a recent opinion poll funded by DfID and CIDA 
indicated 52 percent of respondents were dissatisfied 
with democratic practices at the local level.  Seventy 
five percent of respondents indicated that they had never 
been involved in discussions on development issues at the 
local council level. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Majimbo may or may not be the solution to 
problems of inadequate resource distribution.  Critics 
point to the possibility that the creation of local 
government structures will add to bureaucracy and 
corruption without necessarily improving living 
standards.  Others suggest that the same problems could 
be addressed using other approaches, including regional 
allocations for lucrative civil service jobs.  Some of 
the poorer, sparsely populated and more remote regions 
would have great difficulty sustaining basic government 
services unless they receive supplementary funding 
disproportionate to their populations. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Either way, Raila's campaign promise of a 
majimbo-focused constitutional change within six months 
 
NAIROBI 00004423  003 OF 003 
 
 
of victory is not realistic, and only recently have his 
calls for majimbo been accompanied by any detailed 
proposal.  Nevertheless, the government is stepping up to 
the challenge presented by promising to provide more 
money to the provinces.  In its formal rejection of 
majimbo, a PNU advertisement promises to "hand more 
autonomy to communities" by "investing more through the 
CDF and other devolved funds with a proven record of 
performance." 
 
¶12. (SBU) Majimbo is a potentially resonant campaign 
issue.  A Steadman poll released on October 26 showed 
that only 22 percent of respondents agreed with the 
government's claim that majimbo is a recipe for ethnic 
divisions and tribal clashes.  A slim majority (52 
percent) view the term positively as a way for fair 
distribution of resources and devolution of power to the 
grassroots.  The poll indicated that 40 percent of 
respondents oppose majimbo, 38 percent of respondents 
favor it, and 17 percent either did not know or did not 
understand the concept.  Majimbo had the highest levels 
of support in Nyanza, Raila's home district, and the Rift 
Valley (57 and 52 percent respectively), and the lowest 
level of support in the Kikuyu-dominated Central Province 
(10 percent). 
 
¶13. (SBU) ODM is attempting to win more support for its 
proposal by taking out two-page color ads in major 
newspapers explaining the Bomas-based devolution proposal 
and debunking "lies about devolution" (including that 
Kenyans will have to move back to their ancestral 
homelands). 
 
¶14. (SBU) Comment: It will be difficult to separate the 
majimbo concept of fiscal and political devolution from 
its anti-Kikuyu associations, particularly given the fact 
that the two main presidential contenders - Kibaki and 
Odinga - are old hands at tribal politics.  Looking 
beyond the election, however, ODM's recent attempt to 
recast the majimbo debate in non-ethnic terms combined 
with PNU's pledge to support a more scaled-down version 
of devolution could still result in a win for Kenyan 
voters - if one assumes that neither Raila Odinga or 
Kalonzo Musyoka would be willing or able to completely 
and immediately restructure the Kenyan state in line with 
their campaign promises.  As for the periodic outbursts 
of ethnic chauvinism we have seen on the campaign trail 
in the name of majimbo, the Ambassador and senior Emboffs 
have responded publicly and repeatedly in condemnation of 
such incitement and will continue to do so.  End Comment. 
 
RANNEBERGER