VZCZCXYZ0023
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #4402/01 3111333
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071333Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3371
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9661
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5570
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4909
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2372
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1635
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2457
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2381
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004402 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: COAST RUNNING 60/40 
PRO-OPPOSITION SO FAR 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4269 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  PolCouns' travels in Coast Province 
indicate that the coastal strip is strongly pro-Raila Odinga 
and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).  The interior of 
the province is much less committed, with the President's 
Party of National Unity (PNU) coalition better represented. 
The Coast accounts for about five percent of projected voters 
(registered voters multiplied by traditional turnout rate). 
Ethnic Kambas have significant communities in Mombasa, Kwale 
and Taita/Taveta districts.  They back ODM-Kenya presidential 
candidate Kalonzo Musyoka.  While the electorate remains 
volatile, 60 percent pro-opposition support (ODM & ODM-K) to 
40 percent pro-government support is a good estimate for 
Coast Province at this point.  End Summary. 
 
Mombasa:  Cosmopolitan Coast Capital Favors ODM 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Cosmopolitan Mombasa has significant support for 
both opposition parties (Raila Odinga's ODM & Kalonzo 
Musyoka's ODM-K) as well as President Kibaki's PNU coalition. 
 The majority of residents appear to support ODM, largely due 
to the coast's traditional attachment to the idea of 
decentralization, which ODM supports and PNU opposes. 
 
¶3. (SBU) A major component of PNU on the coast is the 
Shirikisho party, which, unusual for a Kenyan political 
party, has a strong policy orientation.  Shirikisho was 
founded to promote the "majimbo" concept of decentralized 
governance (reftel).  Kibaki and his PNU are outspokenly 
anti-majimbo, causing severe discomfit for their Shirikisho 
allies.  Shirikisho leaders are having difficulty maintaining 
the support of rank and file members, who accuse their 
leaders of selling out Shirikisho principles.  Kibaki's 
Minister of State for National Heritage, Suleiman Shakombo, a 
Shirikisho leader, confessed to PolCouns that his reelection 
to parliament from his Mombasa constituency was in doubt due 
to his unpopular alliance with Kibaki and the PNU. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Shakombo insisted, "Raila's and Kalonzo's talk about 
'majimbo' is not serious.  We can convince Kibaki to give the 
coast what is owed to us.  Raila will take our votes and then 
forget us."  Shakombo listed the coast's grievances in much 
the same terms as do ODM-supporters: "Mombasa is the 
country's second greatest source of tax revenue after 
Nairobi.  But very little of that money comes back to us. 
Where are our roads and other infrastructure?  Tourists will 
stop coming and spending here if the coast gets more and more 
run down.  Nairobi is starving the cow that produces milk for 
the whole country."  On the controversial land issue, a 
highly emotive subject on the coastal strip, Shakombo again 
sounded much like ODM-supporters on the coast: "We will 
peacefully accept what occurred in the past, all the land 
stolen from us by Kenyatta and Moi.  But now we need a new 
deal.  Why shouldn't coastal people own beach property?  It 
is not right that all our prime land is in the hands of 
upcountry people."  (Note:  'Upcountry people' is standard 
coast code for Kenyans from the interior, especially Kikuyus. 
 End Note.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) An ethnic Mijikenda ODM-supporter in Mombasa frankly 
expressed anti-Luo sentiments, despite his backing of 
ethnic-Luo Raila Odinga, the ODM Presidential candidate.  "In 
2002 we used Kibaki and his Kikuyus to tame Moi and his 
Kalenjins when they stayed too long and grabbed too much. 
This year we will use Raila and his Luos to tame Kibaki and 
his Kikuyus for grabbing too much and treating everyone else 
with disrespect.  The Luos are not civilized like we 
coastals, but they can help us get what we want."  (Note: 
The largest ethnic group on the coast are the Mijikenda, a 
group of nine Bantu communities.  They tend to share the 
widespread Bantu distaste for Nilotic (especially Luo) 
cultural practices and traditions.  End Note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) PolCouns did not detect a Christian/Muslim divide in 
Mombasa political sympathies.  Coast  province is evenly 
split between the two faiths, while Mombasa is 60/40 Muslim. 
Coast natives in Mombasa, whether Christian or Muslim, tend 
 
to be pro-ODM.  Kamba residents tend to be pro-ODM-K.  Other 
'upcountry' Mombasa residents tend to be pro-PNU (although 
some Luhya tourist industry workers line up behind ODM). 
 
Tana River District: Preoccupied by Feuding 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The poor and remote Tana River District has not yet 
caught election fever.  Residents are more concerned about 
chronic, violent ethnic strife among the agricultural (Bantu) 
Pokomo and the pastoralist (Cushitic) Somali, Orma and Walde 
peoples, and among the pastoralists themselves.  Of the 
district's three parliamentary constituencies, two are 
considered lightly pro-ODM and one is considered heavily 
pro-PNU.  In each case, this is a function of an individual 
leaders' political alliances rather than voter commitment to 
a particular party.  The land and resources debate does not 
feature in the interior in the same manner as it does on the 
coastal strip.  However, fierce competition over land between 
farmers and herders, and among herders for water and prime 
pasturage, is a constant for this region.  These divisions 
may develop into rival political camps, with violent 
implications.  In general, herders tend to support ODM and 
farmers tend to support PNU.  However, the picture is 
complicated by some pastoralist leaders' traditional 
adherence to KANU, which is now a PNU affiliate.  The concept 
of the PNU coalition is not well understood in the area. 
Orma herders loyal to a KANU politician expressed puzzlement 
to PolCouns about how they could be on the same side as 
Pokomo farmers. 
 
North Coast: "Whose Side Are We On?  We Have No Idea!" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Political discussions in the Giriama country (one of 
the larger Mijikenda groups, predominately Christian and/or 
traditional) revealed a great deal of confusion.  This 
coastal area to the North of Malindi is a hotbed of 
pro-majimbo (decentralization) sympathies.  A meeting with 
the local PNU coordinator in Magarini included bitter remarks 
about "exploitation by upcountry people," and confusion about 
her Shirikisho party's participation in the PNU coalition. 
"We read in the papers that the President is against majimbo, 
but our leaders tell us he is really for it and we should do 
as they say.  We do not understand.  But Raila will have a 
rally here next week and he will explain all to us."  Again, 
this expression of longing for the advent of opposition 
leader Raila Odinga was coming from the local coordinator of 
the President's coalition party.  PNU has a lot of work to do 
on the north coast reconciling its anti-majimbo position with 
the pro-majimbo sympathies of the members of its local 
coalition partner, Shirikisho.  In fact, the second strata of 
Shirikisho leaders recently announced to the press that 
Shirikisho was pulling out of PNU, only to have their leaders 
denounce them and insist on adherence to PNU, inspiring much 
grumbling from the membership. 
 
On The Road to Voi: Voter Card Buying Operation 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶9. (SBU) At a gasoline station in the town of Mariakani, 
about an hour drive northwest of Mombasa, PolCouns witnessed 
individuals casually buying up voter cards from this pro-ODM 
area.  Mariakani is situated on the border of Kwale (south 
coast) and Kilifi (north coast) districts.  When asked about 
the gentlemen with the clipboards and satchels sitting at an 
outside table in the snack bar receiving a stream of 
visitors, a pump attendant explained that they were buying 
voter identification cards from agents that were transacting 
business in the rural areas of the two districts.  While at 
the station, PolCouns witnessed envelopes exchange hands. 
The attendant explaned that the agents go to remote rural 
areas and explain that the government was paying a reward for 
those citizens who had showed civic virtue by registering to 
vote.  They then asked for the cards as a receipt for the 
money paid, telling the would-be voters: "your name is 
already on the voter rolls and you have your national 
identification card, so you do not need the voter 
identification card."  In fact, both cards must be presented 
 
on the day of the vote.  This tactic removes from play voters 
thought likely to support the other side.  The attendant 
identified the individuals transacting this business as local 
Government of Kenya officials and PNU activists. 
 
Taita/Taveta: Personalities Rule, Not Issues 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The Taita/Taveta region of Coast Province is 
traditionally considered more in tune with upcountry politics 
than coast politics.  The area includes the Tsavo wildlife 
parks and huge sisal plantations.  The Taita and Taveta 
peoples are found in both Tanzania and Kenya.  Many Kambas 
from neighboring Eastern Province have moved into the area, 
along with the usual Kikuyu shopkeepers and professionals. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The ODM office in Voi was staffed by a professional 
cadre of political operators drawn from the area.  They spoke 
eloquently of ODM campaign themes and alleged that the local 
administration tilted strongly in favor of PNU.  (Throughout 
his Coast travels, PolCouns found District Commissioners and 
District Officers consistently away from the office, 
"monitoring political events."  This was not the case in past 
trips.)  When PolCouns asked about ODM supporters making 
dangerously inflammatory statements castigating the Kikuyu, 
the ODM coordinator said they had just disciplined one of 
their parliamentary aspirants for using abusive language in 
that regard, "since that sort of thing is forbidden in the 
campaign book."  On inspection, "the campaign book" turned 
out to be a campaign manual printed by the African National 
Congress for use in South Africa.  The ODM coordinator 
averred that the ANC manual was used throughout Kenya by ODM 
activists. 
 
¶12. (SBU) ODM-K did not have an office in Voi.  The ODM-K 
coordinator worked out of his internet cafe.  ODM-K activists 
also alleged pro-PNU bias by the local administration, but 
emphasized that "these days people don't do whatever the 
district officer or chief tells them to do.  Under the 
British, Kenyatta and Moi, people were terrified of district 
officials.  They had the power of life and death.  These days 
they don't have so much authority.  Some of the chiefs speak 
in favor of PNU in the presence of the district officer and 
then, once he leaves, tell their people to vote for the 
opposition." 
 
¶13. (SBU) PNU's Voi operation was in a shambles: no PNU 
office and the constituent members of the PNU coalition were 
opposed to one other.  The PNU district coordinator had just 
quit over a dispute with Nairobi PNU officials on the 
disappearance of campaign funds slated for the district.  An 
ally of the former PNU coordinator told us that the Nairobi 
PNU officials delivering funds to the district campaign 
committee "claimed to have 'consumed' 200,000 Kenyan 
Shillings staying in a hotel for one night.  The hotel 
charges  1,200 shillings a night for a room!  How is that 
possible to spend so much!")  The PNU Youth Wing leaders 
(former KANU Youth) told PolCouns that they were so disgusted 
with the corruption of Nairobi PNU officials that they were 
prepared to sell their "mobilization services" to the 
opposition.  Despite PNU disarray, PolCouns found a fair 
amount of support for Kibaki in Voi town, whose population 
includes civil servants, merchants and shopkeepers from 
outside the district.  A number of pro-Kibaki voters in Voi 
expressed an intention to split their ballot: voting Kibaki 
for President and supporting a popular local ODM candidate 
for parliament. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Outside Voi, the population of the surrounding 
district was focused on individual local leaders, adopting 
their party and presidential preferences as their own.  While 
the majority of the population is either Taita or Taveta (the 
two indigenous Bantu communities), the area attracts 
plantation workers from throughout the country (mostly 
Kambas, Maasai, Luhyas and Luos).  In a constituency 
bordering Tanzania, one knowledgeable observer predicted 80 
percent support for the likely ODM candidate and 20 percent 
support (the Kamba vote) for the ODM-K candidate, with 
negligible support for the PNU incumbent. 
 
 
Comment: 60/40 Pro-Opposition on Coast, But Many Can Be Swayed 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) The prevailing sentiment on the coast is 
pro-opposition, especially pro-ODM.  However, Kibaki has a 
significant following in Coast Province and has activated the 
provincial administration to bring to bear on his behalf the 
carrots and sticks available to an incumbent.  On the 
opposition side, some irresponsible elements within ODM seem 
prepared to push the populist version of majimbo to the point 
of threatening social peace.  Coast Province only accounts 
for about five percent of likely voters, but in an 
anticipated close election, it could make a difference. 
 
¶16. (SBU) We are expressing concerns about neutrality of the 
administration, vote card buying and inflammatory rhetoric to 
the Electoral Commission Chairman, political party 
leaderships and relevant government officials.  If not 
addressed, we are prepared to comment publicly on these 
concerns, possibly in league with other major electoral 
process donors. 
RANNEBERGER