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RR RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD
DE RUEHMO #5522/01 3301457
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261457Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5439
INFO RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 2543
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2866
RUEHZN/EST COLLECTIVE
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID FOR GH, E&E 
HHS FOR OGHA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO SCUL PREL SOCI RS
SUBJECT: VIEWING RUSSIA'S DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS THROUGH A POLITICAL 
LENS 
 
REFS: A. Moscow 1834 
  ¶B. Moscow 1811 
  ¶C. Moscow 1434 
  ¶D. 06 Moscow 12348 
 
MOSCOW 00005522  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT 
ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Although Russia's demographic crisis has not been 
a major issue during the Duma elections campaign, most of the 
political parties have focused some attention on reversing the 
population decline by encouraging higher birth rates.  Led by 
President Putin, United Russia has crowed over recent improvements 
in both fertiliy and mortality statistics, introduced a National 
Demographics Concept, supported new GOR restrictions on abortions, 
and backed a family values project in ten pilot regions.  Just 
Russia leader Sergey Mironov has proposed greater financial 
incentives for families that have two or more children, including 
government-backed home mortgages, while Communist Party leader 
Gennadiy Zyuganov has urged every family to have three children. 
The candidates have focused on popular anti-abortion and pro-birth 
measures and largely avoided tougher questions like what to do about 
Russia's high mortality from alcohol and tobacco use.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Putin Leads Way, Adopts National Demographics Concept 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (U) During a November 21 nationally televised rally in support of 
United Russia, President Putin took credit for recent improvements 
in both mortality and fertility statistics:  "Thanks to the active 
social policy, mortality is going down.  For the first time in 
recent years -- I pin great hopes on the audience here -- the birth 
rate is growing."  Putin's brief comment echoed previous statements 
from leading GOR officials and United Russia campaigners that the 
recent demographic improvements resulted from the National Priority 
Health Project (Ref B) and new financial incentives to encourage 
more births (Ref A). 
 
¶3. (U) On October 9, Putin also signed an 11-page National 
Demographics Concept, which lays out three basic stages of 
demographic planning through 2025.  During the first stage 
(2007-2010), the GOR plans to limit natural population loss by 
reducing deaths from road accidents, cardiovascular disease and 
other preventable causes, improve maternal and child health care and 
social and family conditions to encourage more births, and increase 
immigration.  From 2011-2015, the GOR will attempt to stabilize the 
Russian population at the level of 142-143 million, by improving the 
health of the population and encouraging healthy lifestyles; 
creating favorable conditions for women to both work and bear 
children; and increasing financial incentives for families to have 
multiple children.  In the final stage (2016-2025), the government 
will take "preemptive measures" to prevent a worsening of the 
country's demographic situation and achieve a population level of 
145 million, even though there will be a significant decline in the 
number of women of reproductive age during this period.  The GOR has 
admitted that the concept paper still needs a concrete action plan 
for achieving these ambitious goals.  The GOR is supposed to present 
an action plan with specific measures in early 2008. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Russia Gets Tougher on Abortions 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) At the beginning of November, the Ministry of Health and 
Social Development reduced the number of social and medical reasons 
that will justify a state-funded abortion.  The MOHSD also published 
new rules requiring a woman to consult with a social worker and sign 
an informed consent form before having an abortion in a 
government-funded clinic.  The ministry is also reportedly 
considering, but has not yet implemented, a ban on abortions in 
private clinics.  (NOTE: In 2006, for the first time in the last 50 
years, there were more births than abortions reported in Russia. 
The trend of fewer reported abortions than births is expected to 
continue in 2007, though the officially registered abortions do not 
include the 15-20 percent of abortions that take place in private 
clinics. END NOTE.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Some observers, such as consultant Kirill Danishevskiy from 
the Open Health Institute, believe that the imposition of greater 
restrictions on abortions was an "obvious attempt" by the Government 
and United Russia to do something about Russia's low fertility rates 
during the Duma election campaign.  These efforts would bolster 
earlier GOR attempts to stimulate more births, such as the 250,000 
 
MOSCOW 00005522  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
ruble payment to families who have a second child and basic 
improvements to maternal and child health care under the National 
Priority Health Project (Refs A, B).  The new restrictions also may 
have been a concession to Russian "pro-life" religious groups.  Most 
observers do not believe the new rules will have much of an impact 
on the actual number of abortions in Russia, given that dozens of 
medical reasons still remain in place permitting abortions in 
government-funded clinics, and abortions are still freely available 
in private clinics. 
 
¶6. (U) Some fringe parties have proposed even greater restrictions 
on abortions, all of which the Duma has rejected.  Sergey Baburin, 
leader of the People's Union Party and a vice speaker in the Duma 
that ended November 16, proposed a draft law banning all abortions 
except for certain medical reasons, and fines of 80,000 rubles for 
health providers who violated the ban.  Rodina party members 
introduced legislation in the Duma a year ago requiring a husband's 
consent for a woman to have an abortion. 
 
----------------------- 
Promoting Family Values 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) In addition to supporting Putin's National Demographics 
Concept and GOR measures to restrict abortions, United Russia also 
supports the "Strong Family" project, which was launched in August 
2006 and is being implemented in ten regions.  The project aims to 
reduce teenage crime, prevent abandonment of children, support young 
volunteers working with families and at-risk youth, and encourage 
the public to embrace strong family values.  The party gives awards 
to the most successful participants in the program, which includes 
about 35,000 families who are raising 55,000 children and 
teenagers. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Russians Should Bring Forth and Multiply 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Many politicians have argued that Russians should simply have 
more children and not rely on immigration to solve the problem of a 
shrinking population.  Just Russia leader and Federation Council 
Speaker Mironov has adopted a strong pro-birth, anti-immigration 
policy.  He has proposed that the GOR fund half of home mortgages 
for families that have a second child and fund the entire mortgage 
if a third child is born.  Although Mironov is generally opposed to 
immigration, he does support efforts to stimulate a greater influx 
of Russian speaking migrants from CIS countries.  He would provide 
Russian citizenship to those who pass Russian language, culture and 
history tests.  In contrast to demographic forecasts that the 
Russian population will continue shrinking and be somewhere in the 
neighborhood of 100 million by 2050, Mironov has bullishly predicted 
that Russia will have a population of 250 million people by 2050. 
 
¶9. (U) Communist Party Leader Gennadiy Zyuganov, in a recent address 
to students, stated that every Russian family should have three 
children.  Beyond this platitude, the Communists have said little 
recently about the demographic crisis.  Historically, they have 
blamed Yeltsin for sowing the seeds of a "population genocide," 
arguing that declines in fertility and increases in mortality began 
during his presidency.  (NOTE: Experts generally agree that the 
population loss resulted from long-term trends in declining 
fertility and increasing mortality that began during the Soviet era. 
 However, they note that political instability, economic uncertainty 
and stress did play a role in worsening mortality and fertility 
statistics during the Yeltsin years. END NOTE.) 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Yabloko Party has argued that the demographic 
situation should be improved through greater support for families, 
mothers and children, and by reducing morbidity and mortality from 
environmental factors.  The party has not presented any specific 
plans for achieving these goals.  On November 20, the Urals State 
Economic University in Yekaterinburg "without explanation" revoked 
an invitation for Yabloko Party leader Grigoriy Yavlinskiy to 
deliver a speech at a demographics conference at the university. 
 
¶11. (U) LDPR Leader Vladimir Zhirinovskiy (known for making 
provocative comments) has mentioned the legalization of polygamy, 
which in his view would lead to more Russian births, especially 
given that there are fewer Russian men than women.  Zhirinovskiy 
also recently suggested that Russia accept males from overpopulated 
countries who are willing to marry single Russian women and raise 
families with them. 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
MOSCOW 00005522  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
What About Preventable Mortality? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) Politicians have paid little attention to dealing with high 
mortality rates, particularly among men, where the average life 
expectancy is 60.37 years of age.  The general consensus among 
experts is that this would lead more quickly to demographic 
improvements than trying to stimulate births.  President Mikhail 
Davydov of the Academy of Medical Sciences has argued that the GOR 
made a fundamental error by focusing so much attention over the past 
18 months on promoting greater births through financial incentives 
(Ref A).  In his view, the GOR should have made a concentrated 
effort to reduce the number of deaths from preventable causes, such 
as road and workplace accidents, alcohol poisonings, suicides and 
murders.  Likewise, Kirill Danishevskiy, a consultant at Russia's 
Open Health Institute, has argued that the government could greatly 
reduce mortality and increase life expectancies among the 
working-age population by adopting programs aimed at reducing the 
prevalence of hard alcohol drinking and smoking, which most experts 
agree are the main factors driving Russia's high mortality (Refs A, 
C, D). 
 
¶13. (U) Despite these criticisms, some components of the National 
Priority Health Project are aimed at reducing preventable mortality, 
such as modernizing and expanding Russia's ambulance fleet and 
building high-tech medical centers (Ref B).  The National 
Demographics Concept signed by Putin does not address either smoking 
or hard alcohol consumption.  Many analysts believe such measures 
would be politically unworkable, given the lingering history of 
Gorbachev's unpopular attempts to restrict alcohol consumption (Ref 
A, C), as well as strong tobacco and hospitality lobbies opposed to 
greater restrictions on smoking (Ref A). 
 
¶14. (U) Despite the political difficulties in regulating alcohol and 
tobacco, the Just Russia party platform includes a complete ban on 
alcohol and tobacco advertising, restrictions on the number of 
retail locations where alcohol can be sold, and a state monopoly for 
the production and sale of ethyl alcohol (the main ingredient in 
vodka).  The party also would establish a state-funded network of 
health care facilities for the mandatory treatment of alcoholism and 
drug addiction and social services for alcoholics and drug addicts. 
 
 
¶15. (U) The Just Russia party's platform also calls for the GOR to 
spend 5 percent of GDP on health expenses (the GOR now spends 3.66 
percent of GDP on health, according to the WHO).  The party also 
wants the GOR to set maximum retail prices for drugs, provide free 
medical care for all children, and introduce mandatory testing for 
drug use in high schools and universities. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Despite the magnitude of the problem, demographic issues 
have not featured prominently in the run-up to the December 2 Duma 
elections.  Politicians have focused on popular anti-abortion and 
pro-birth measures and largely avoided tougher questions like what 
to do about Russia's high mortality, with only Just Russia taking a 
stab at measures against heavy alcohol and tobacco use. 
 
BURNS