VZCZCXRO3874
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #5502/01 3271259
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231259Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5409
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR RS
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: KRASNOYARSK ELECTION - QUIET ON THE 
SIBERIAN FRONT 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) A joke is circulating in Krasnoyarsk that the 
regional electoral commission is taking care to make sure the 
population doesn't falsify the elections.  With less than two 
weeks before polling day, virtually everyone "knows" the 
election outcome -- a solid majority for United Russia; 
enough votes to put the Communist Party of the Russian 
Federation (KPRF) in the Duma; and a few "crumbs" for the 
rest.  The only remaining questions are how many voters will 
turn out and how large United Russia's take will be.  The 
United Russia headquarters is smugly confident, while the 
other parties complain of harassment, media bias, and the 
misuse of administration resources.  END SUMMARY. 
 
United Russia Smugly Confident 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) The chairman of United Russia's regional executive 
committee, Aleksey Dodatko, exudes the confidence of a 
veteran skipper, navigating home under clear skies.  He and 
his staff have tallied the numbers and calmly predict that 
United Russia will bring in 60 percent of the vote, up from 
the 45 percent success in the April regional legislative 
elections and about equal to that which Putin received in 
¶2003.  Problems that have shaken the party in other regions, 
such as rising prices on food, did not lead to a drop in the 
party's numbers, according to Dodatko. (The governor 
nonetheless opened special markets for peasant-farmers to 
sell directly to city consumers.)  Dodatko's only remaining 
challenge was to ensure that the KPRF didn't get a larger 
share of the vote than in the April elections -- about 20 
percent of the voting population.  The key to success was 
managing the turnout, which he believed would be no more than 
45 percent of eligible voters. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Dodatko described United Russia as the party of 
"leaders" and looked at the election as social legitimization 
of the current course.  He defended his party's decision not 
to participate in debates on the grounds that other parties 
had nothing to offer but criticism and were not ready to 
discuss alternative plans for resolving real issues.  The 
"For a Just Russia" party were "running after the train," 
having faltered in the weeks following Putin's decision to 
lead United Russia's party list.  He likewise dismissed the 
Communists and liberal Union of Right Forces (SPS), the 
former as "jokes" or a "caricature" and the latter as 
ideologically adrift.  When asked about the protest vote, now 
that "against all" was no longer an option for voters, 
Dodatko seemed unconcerned, noting that there had been little 
impact in the April elections or even an increase in spoiled 
ballots. 
 
Opponents are Hapless and Unhappy 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Besides the KPRF, which appears from press reports 
to be more or less satisfied with a minority position in the 
next Duma, Krasnoyarsk's other "opposition" parties are 
frustrated by a lack of access to the media and United 
Russia's bullying use of administrative resources to bolster 
its already strong position.  Parties on the left -- KPRF, 
"Just Russia", and Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR -- were 
unable (or unwilling) to meet with Embassy, but local 
newspapers report problems with confiscation of campaign 
materials and general harassment. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On the right, party leaders from Yabloko and SPS 
complained about problems with the administration but appear 
helpless to address those concerns.  Yabloko regional 
chairman Vladimir Kopytov said that militia officers had 
detained him without reason to keep him from "interfering" in 
a United Russia rally on November 4.  He claimed that the 
administration had blocked his party from posting campaign 
billboards by "threatening" local advertising firms.  (Poloff 
noted United Russia billboards were sprinkled throughout the 
city, but only a few solitary advertisements for LDPR, SR, 
and SPS.)  Sergey Shakmatov of SPS reiterated his party's 
irritation with the administration's seizure of campaign 
materials and likewise claimed about administration 
interference in the party's programs. 
 
¶6. (SBU) As in other regions, United Russia's domination of 
the regional electoral commission creates a further challenge 
for the opposition parties, denying them a transparent and 
impartial court in which to air concerns.  Chairman of the 
Krasnoyarsk Electoral Commission Konstantin Bocharov 
dismissed SPS's appeal related to the confiscation of 
campaign materials as "politicking," noting that both the 
 
MOSCOW 00005502  002 OF 002 
 
 
Central Electoral Commission and a regional court had upheld 
the regional commission's decision.  He expressed pride that 
his commission had only one ruling overturned -- a "technical 
error" during the April elections. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Conversations with others outside the 
political parties offered an admittedly anecdotal picture of 
a population largely disconnected from the election process. 
Sergey Kim, a regional television journalist, said that 
public complacency resulted from the region's strong economy 
and "stable" political structure (so stable that the Deputy 
Governor resigned out of "boredom," according to Kim). 
Sociologist Irina Muratova of the Komkon-Yeast Siberia 
polling firm said that without administrative pressure not 
even 40 percent of population would turn out for elections. 
Indeed, the number of "agitators" on the streets hawking a 
new cell phone plan easily outnumbered the few party 
activists waving flags or passing out flyers. Contacts in 
town, from taxi drivers to businessmen, joked about United 
Russia's attempt to take credit for improved roads and seemed 
resigned to a carefully stage-managed election. 
BURNS