VZCZCXRO5894
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #5381/01 3181314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141314Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5221
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 2532
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2850
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 4680

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005381 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI RS
SUBJECT:  IN IRKUTSK NATIONAL POLITICS OVERSHADOW LOCAL 
 
 
MOSCOW 00005381  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU) A recent trip to Irkutsk oblast found a region not 
immune to the ebb and flow of Russian national politics.  While 
the pro-Putin United Russia Party (YR) has a distinct advantage 
over also-rans For a Just Russia (SR) and the Communist Party 
(KPRF) in this region, the endemic corruption within the YR and 
the failure of local leadership to deal with local problems could 
provide an opening for expressions of opposing views come the 
State Duma election on December 2.  End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
The Local Landscape 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a trip to Irkutsk and Angarsk October 1-5, we found a 
staunchly independent oblast that nonetheless was still dominated 
by the United Russia (YR).  Galina Solkina and Yelena Veselkova 
of Teleinform, an Irkutsk-based news and information agency, 
described regional politics as controlled from outside and free 
of vigorous public debate.  They noted that a free press does not 
exist in Irkutsk oblast, and they found that no print or 
broadcast media would criticize or contradict the current power 
structure.  The current governor, Aleksandr Tishanin, a Putin 
appointee, exemplified the current political process.  Tishanin 
was not directly elected but rather selected by Putin from 
outside Irkutsk Oblast.  Solkina suggested that he was brought in 
to control the independent-minded electorate. 
 
¶3. (SBU) During our meetings we often heard of the unique state 
of politics in Siberia as if there existed a "wild east" 
mentality.  Solkina and Veselkova said that in previous 
elections, United Russia did not receive as much support from the 
local electorate as it did from the European oblasts.  However, 
in national polling data released September 18 by the Foundation 
for Public Opinion (FOM), political leanings in Irkutsk Oblast 
did not differ significantly from the national trends.  The minor 
differences, which fall within the margin of statistical error, 
lead us to question the perception of a political culture 
distinct from the rest of the country. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Politics in the Best Chicago Tradition 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Like the rest of Russia, Irkutsk has not been free of 
corruption.  Solkina told us that the local YR has become a haven 
for corrupt politicians.  The current mayor of Irkutsk, Vladimir 
Yakubovskiy, second on the local YR party list, would be grateful 
for a Duma seat for the immunity from prosecution it provides. 
According to Solkina, after December, he either goes into the 
Duma or prison.  The local prosecutor's office has amassed a 
substantial case against him for abuse of his office.  Solkina 
also suggested that most likely, his departure from the city 
would be welcomed by the public as well because of his strangle 
hold on the housing market.  In Irkutsk, only construction firms 
approved by Yakubovksiy can get land for housing development, and 
of course those firms pay for such favorable treatment.  This 
tight, controlled market in new construction only adds to the 
exceedingly high costs of housing in the oblast.  (Note: Solkina 
and Veselkova said that housing prices in Irkutsk were the fourth 
highest in Russia.  End note.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Solkina pointed out that two previous YR mayors from 
Irkutsk Oblast are now serving time in prison because of their 
criminal behavior.  Viktor Doroshek, the mayor from Nizhniy 
Ulimskiy Rayon, and Vasliy Saikov the mayor from Sludyanskiy 
Rayon, were both arrested earlier this year for murder and 
attempted murder.  Solkina suggested that YR has become a haven 
for the unscrupulous, noting that more than 70 mayors appeared on 
the regional party lists for the December Duma elections. 
 
¶6. (SBU) According to the regional leader of the Communist Party, 
Sergey Levchenko, election fraud was the only reason for YR's 
significant gains in previous elections. 
 
¶7. (U) Recent press reports have demonstrated how vulnerable YR 
could be in the oblast.  According to national and local press 
reports, on October 19, deputy governor Sergey Voronov was 
arrested for embezzlement of public funds in the amount of RUR 42 
million (about USD 1.6 million).  YR expelled him from the party 
on November 9.  Earlier in October, the head of public roads in 
Irkutsk Oblast, Viktor Bushuyev, was also arrested in connection 
with the same crime. 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
MOSCOW 00005381  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
United Russia, Large and in Charge 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) YR controls the oblast legislative assembly, the 
governorship, and the mayor's office in almost all cities in the 
oblast.  The party list for the December 2 State Duma elections 
will be led by the governor Aleksander Tishanin, current State 
Duma deputy Vitaliy Shuba (elected from a single mandate 
district), and Irkutsk mayor Vladimir Yakubovskiy.  Our contacts 
in the city believe the governor will not actually enter the 
Duma.  Putin appointed him to his post in September 2005, and his 
position as governor is more lucrative than a Duma seat.  Rather 
he will function as the "locomotive" of the list, gathering votes 
through name recognition.  The fate of Yakubovskiy was still 
uncertain.  Although under investigation for corruption, he also 
might find his job as mayor more financially rewarding.  If 
Yakubovskiy stayed, Governor Tishanin would likely want to push 
him out to bring in his own man to this important job. 
 
¶9. (SBU) In Angarsk, a city of 247,000 people about 40 minutes 
drive from Irkutsk, YR kept a stronghold on the local levers of 
power.  (Note: Angarsk was the site of the July 21 attack on an 
ecological camp protesting the uranium refinement facility 
there.)  We met with several high placed local elected officials 
who proved both competent and devoted to YR.  Andrey Kozlov, the 
mayor of the Angarsk, described a paternalistic YR that takes 
over where the people leave off.  According to him, the fall of 
the Soviet Union left few social structures to create leaders, 
foster civic culture, and to function within a democracy.  In 
response YR, not the government or other institutions,  would 
foster the birth of such organizations that would lead to a 
Western-style civic culture. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
For A Just Russia Thinks It Too Has Prospects 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  A meeting with Dmitriy Rasumov, chair of the regional 
SR, was colored by Putin's recent decision to be the only name on 
the national party list for United Russia.  When we met with him, 
Rasumov had not had time to process the meaning of this dramatic 
and unexpected move and what it meant for SR as the other party 
of Putin.  He maintained his loyalty to the president although he 
acknowledged that YR's share of the vote would naturally 
increase.  He originally expected that YR would garner 45 percent 
of the local vote but after the announcement expected it to get 
upwards of 60 percent.  None of the gain would come at the 
expense of SR.  Speaking without the benefit of polling data, he 
claimed that SR, as a left-wing party, would derive most of its 
vote from the current undecideds.  YR, as a right-wing party 
would increase its vote at the expense of other parties. 
 
¶11. (SBU)  In explaining Putin's decision, Rasumov turned the 
focus of discussion to stability, something Putin has striven for 
during his presidency.  In a resigned way, he almost agreed with 
Putin's decision as the only serious way of guaranteeing the 
continuation of Putin's policies.  If Putin had chosen to throw 
his support behind SR, the national political situation would 
destabilize.  Rasumov  characterized the stability of Putin's 
policies as the fulfillment of government obligations while 
destabilization would mean default, inflation and unpaid social 
payments. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Rasumov described SR as the left-wing, pro-Putin option 
that would appeal to the natural left leanings of the Russian 
electorate.  He characterized YR as the party of capitalists and 
bureaucrats while SR fit into the typical European social- 
democrat party model.  He mentioned specifically the issues of 
housing, pensions and education.  He placed much blame for YR's 
inadequacies at the feet of bureaucrats who hold sway in that 
party.  SR would combat the bureaucracy that permeates YR's plans 
and programs.  However, he was unable to clearly articulate why 
United Russia was so much more popular than SR given that the two 
parties back the same leader (Putin). 
 
-------------------------------- 
KPRF, the New Brand of Democracy 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) The regional leader of the Communist Party in Irkutsk, 
Sergey Levchenko, described a vibrant and democratic party 
clearly focused on the economic development of the region.  He 
highlighted the democratic structure of the party and its social 
concerns, two characteristics not shared by the other parties. 
Levchenko said that the KPRF was evidently the only party to 
include  local candidates selected by the rank-and-file on party 
lists.  SR and YR both selected candidates from other regions for 
inclusion on the lists, ostensibly to guarantee Duma seats to 
 
MOSCOW 00005381  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
party loyalists.  Also, KPRF would be the only party to guarantee 
that all candidates on its list would serve in the Duma if 
elected.  According to Levchenko, YR's lists included several 
"locomotives" who would attract votes but not ultimately serve 
and several "parachutists" who appear on the local lists but have 
in fact no connection to the oblast. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Levchenko described a Communist Party platform focused 
on drug abuse, use of natural resources, unemployment, and 
housing.  Official statistics on unemployment underestimated the 
actual problem.  To address the high cost of housing, YR's plans 
focused on the availability of credit for purchasing a home. 
Levchenko noted that this plan in effect would increase the 
amount of money available to purchase housing but not increase 
the housing itself.  Levchenko dismissed the current 
administration's efforts to fight ddrug abuse as incompetent or 
completely ineffective. 
 
------------------------ 
Politics Should Be Local 
------------------------ 
 
¶15. (SBU) Solkina and Veselovka asserted that the oblast ought to 
be wealthy given its oil resources in the north.  However, the 
allocation of contracts and licenses has been strictly controlled 
by the central government.  They also pointed out that the 
construction companies building oil pipelines tend to bring in 
workers from outside the oblast thus not contributing 
significantly to the local economy.  The heavy machinery used in 
the construction of oil and gas pipelines destroys the local 
roads which must be repaired by local governments. 
Unfortunately, all taxes from oil and gas go to the federal 
government.  Thus the energy industries make significant demands 
on the local governments yet do not contribute significantly to 
the tax base. 
 
¶16. (SBU) This complaint about oil companies' negative impact was 
supported by Yelena Kovalenko, the mayor of Tayshet, a small town 
in Western Irkutsk Oblast.  According to the new plans for local 
self-government recently put in place in Russia, Tayshet has 
assumed responsibility for maintenance of the roads.  However, 
the laws that created such governing structures did not 
necessarily provide the appropriate tax revenues. 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) Irkutsk seems like the rest of Russia.  Its support of 
United Russia was strong and the party had a strong hold on the 
levers or power.  SR was struggling, and the Communists were able 
to count on a strong but comparatively small base of support. 
Corruption, a perennial issue, does not appear to hinder YR 
although many contacts noted its significance in people's lives. 
 
BURNS