VZCZCXRO4047
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0967/01 3271539
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231539Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6665
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1736
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000967 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 23, 2007 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Polish Priest Faces Deportation (para. 2) 
- Activists Authorized to Mark Slutsk Uprising (para. 3) 
- Activist Wins Appeal in Supreme Court (para. 4) 
- Pro-Regime "Belaya Rus" Holds Founding Conference (para. 5) 
- Prosecutor General Denies Kozulin Appeal (para. 6) 
- Officials Report Demographic Decline (para. 7) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Industrial Output Rises 8.2 Percent (para. 8) 
- GOB Fails to Meet Its Own Socio-Economic Targets (para. 9) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- Trade Deficit in Goods Increases Again (para. 10) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 11) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Polish Priest Faces Deportation 
 
Gomel authorities ordered Rechitsa-based Polish Catholic priest 
Grzegorz Hudek to leave Belarus by December 1.  Gomel regional 
religious officer Mikhail Zhukevich stated November 20 that "the 
case does not indicate any confrontation between the authorities and 
the denomination," but that the priest spoke negatively about 
Rechitsa in an interview though his main duty was "to spiritually 
revive the people."  The decision represents a rejection of a 
personal appeal on Hudek's behalf by Kazimierz Cardinal Swiatek. 
Local Catholics have started collecting signatures to petition the 
authorities to allow the priest to stay.  Hudek has served in Gomel 
region for over 14 years. 
 
¶3.  Activists Authorized to Mark Slutsk Uprising 
 
Minsk regional authorities November 20 granted permission to 
historical heritage preservation activists to hold commemorative 
events on November 24 to mark the anniversary of the 1920 Slutsk 
Anti-Bolshevik uprising.  Authorities limited the number of people 
authorized to mark the occasion to 100.  Plans include a visit to a 
private museum in Starye Dorogi to unveil a monument featuring an 
insurgent protecting a cross, an old Belarusian emblem, and a flag. 
The Slutsk uprising began November 1, 1920, though Soviet 
authorities fully suppressed it by the end of that year. 
 
¶4.  Activist Wins Appeal in Supreme Court 
 
Supreme Court Chairperson Valentin Sukalo November 19 annulled the 
decision of a Gomel district court that had fined opposition 
activist Sergey Semenov BYR 930,000 (USD 435) August 30 for his 
refusal to fill out a Russian-language customs declaration form 
while traveling to Ukraine.  Semenov was charged a second time for a 
similar incident in September, but the Constitutional Court 
Chairperson involved in that case dismissed those charges, urging 
other judges to respect the Belarusian language and thoroughly 
assess related cases. 
 
¶5.  Pro-Regime "Belaya Rus" Holds Founding Conference 
 
The pro-regime national organization "Belaya Rus" (BR) held its 
founding conference November 17.  380 regional and Minsk delegates 
unanimously elected Education Minister Aleksandr Radkov BR's 
chairman.  Radkov maintained BR would soon become the most "numerous 
public force" supporting presidential initiatives and GOB policies, 
and would take part in the 2008 parliamentary elections.  He also 
noted that BR may become a political party in the future.  The 
delegates ratified a founding charter and elected BR's National 
Council, which includes track and field champion Yuliya Nesterenko, 
State Television Network deputy head Yuriy Azaryonok, University 
rector Mikhail Baturo, and other leaders of state organizations. 
 
¶6.  Prosecutor General Denies Kozulin Appeal 
 
The Prosecutor General's Office November 19 denied political 
prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin's appeal challenging his five and a half 
year jail term.  Kozulin's lawyer Dmitriy Goryachko protested the 
 
MINSK 00000967  002 OF 002 
 
 
sentence and urged an end to criminal proceedings against Kozulin. 
The prosecutor's refusal of the appeal cited the legal grounds for 
his imprisonment.  Kozulin's lawyers plan to request once again a 
meeting with the Chairman of the Supreme Court, though the court 
denied a previous request.  Kozulin's lawyers also sent a complaint 
to the UN Human Rights Committee in October 2007. 
 
¶7.  Officials Report Demographic Decline 
 
The Ministry of Statistics and Analysis reported November 19 that 
Belarus' population decreased by 18,800 to 9,695,700 from January to 
September 2007, though statistics suggest some positive trends.  The 
number of births rose by 6,000 in that period, while 3,800 fewer 
people died compared to the previous year.  Infant mortality 
declined from 6.1 per 1,000 newborns in 2006 to 5.7 in 2007. 
Circulatory diseases caused the majority of deaths, while 2,127 
people committed suicide.  The number of divorces grew by 14.8 
percent, while marriages were up only 7.1 percent. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  Industrial Output Rises 8.2 Percent 
 
Belarus' Statistics Ministry reported November 20 that the country's 
year-on-year industrial output grew 8.2 percent through October. 
The chemical and petrochemical sectors increased production by 10.9 
percent.  Profitability of 20 percent for these industries was above 
the industrial sector's average of 13.2 percent.  The 
machine-building and metalworking sectors showed the largest output 
rise of 13.8 percent, while power, fuel and food industries declined 
0.1 to 2.6 percent during the same period. 
 
¶9.  GOB Fails to Meet Its Own Socio-Economic Targets 
 
Belarus' Ministry of Economics announced November 19 that the GOB 
met only 13 of 19 goals set for the country's social and economic 
development this year.  The country missed production targets for 
consumer goods, food, and agricultural products, failed to achieve a 
foreign trade surplus, and missed profitability targets in the 
industrial sector.  Nevertheless, the Ministry asserts that 
production and investment in the country's key industries are stable 
and are developing successfully. 
 
------------------- 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
¶10.  Trade Deficit in Goods Increases Again 
 
Belarus' Statistics Ministry reported November 18 that the country's 
trade deficit for goods in the January-September time period 
increased to USD 2.6 billion.  The government links the growing 
deficit to a more than twofold increase in prices for imported 
Russian gas and a 21.4 percent rise in oil prices.  Many of Belarus' 
exports declined sharply on the year.  The country still has a trade 
surplus with the EU, though its deficit with Russia reached USD 5.3 
billion. 
 
---------------------- 
¶11.  Quote of the Week 
---------------------- 
 
Columnist Victor Martinovich writing in non-state weekly "Belgazeta" 
on supposed Anti-American sentiment among the people of Belarus: 
 
"To hate America, you need to have a rank not lower than Deputy 
Minister.  Common Belarusians have nothing to hate America for. 
[So, America] bombed Belgrade?  Come on!  How many of us have ever 
even been to Belgrade?  Besides, Milosevic is not an epic hero of 
ours but an ideology trick pulled off by state TV." 
 
Stewart