VZCZCXRO5497
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0877/01 3301508
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261508Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4825
INFO RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 2671
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 2567
RUEHOR/AMEMBASSY GABORONE 0755
RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 1425
RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 6418
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000877 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID FOR DCHA/FFP PETERSEN, TAYLOR 
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA ISAACS, GOTTLIEB, MARX, PRATT 
USAID FOR AFR/SA LOKEN, COPSON 
DEPT FOR AF/S, INR/GGI, PM/ISP 
NCS FOR MELINE 
PRETORIA FOR DISKIN, HALE, SINK, AND USDA/REYNOLDS 
NAIROBI FOR ESTES, DEPREZ 
GABORONE FOR BROWN, KHUPE 
HARARE FOR PATTERSON, REED 
MAPUTO FOR POLAND 
ROME FOR FODAG NEWBERG, BROOKS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON EAGR MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI SITUATION REPORT NUMBER XX - DISASTER ALERT 
 
REF: LILONGWE - REPORT ON FLOODS/HAIL STORM IN SOUTHERN MALAWI 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  The first floods and hail storms of this rainy 
season are reported to have occurred between November 7-16 in seven 
districts: Chikwawa, Nsanje, Phalombe, Mwanza, Mangochi and Machinga 
in southern Malawi, and Mzimba in the north. According to the 
Department of Poverty and Disaster Management Affairs (DoPDMA) an 
estimated 1,309 households have been affected with loss of houses, 
roads and food items. However, the DoPDMA has indicated that most of 
the damage is the result of the hail storm and not due to flooding 
and has dispatched food items to the effected areas as of November 
17, 2007. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (U) GOM EFFORTS:  The households affected by the recent floods 
and hail storms require food assistance, and the DoPDMA indicated 
that food items would be dispatched to Nsanje, Chikwawa and Phalombe 
starting from November 17, 2007. The DoPDMA has made arrangements to 
draw maize supplies from the nearest Agricultural Development and 
Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) depots in the affected districts to 
facilitate immediate and timely response. 
 
¶3. (U) CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCY: There is currently 61,500MT 
in the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) for emergency food aid that can 
be drawn down and replenished. 
 
4 (U) IO/NGO EFFORTS:  The United Nations (UN) is closely monitoring 
the developments with the DoPDMA and field officers, and will be 
ready to come in with the necessary support to fill up any gaps upon 
request, and the Country Representative of the World Food Program 
(WFP) in Malawi indicated that the situation under control. Post 
will continue to monitor this current situation through 
consultations with GoM and partners in the affected area, and will 
report further should the situation deteriorate or the GoM make a 
request for assistance. 
 
¶5. (U) HEALTH CONCERNS:  No cases of cholera have been reported. 
 
6 (U) WEATHER OUTLOOK: The recent weather forecasts by the Southern 
African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), NOAA, GFCSA, and 
the Malawi National Meteorological Service all agree that Malawi has 
a high chance of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall in the 
southern and part of the central regions from January to March 2008. 
 If these predictions prove accurate, the chances of flooding and 
water-logged conditions in the most flood prone districts (Nsanje, 
Chikwawa, Karonga, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mangochi, Nkhata Bay, and 
Salima) are significantly increased.  It should be noted however, 
that floods occur every year in Southern Malawi, especially in the 
districts of Nsanje and Chikwawa, which are located in the flood 
plains of the lower Shire valley.  The Government of Malawi (GoM) 
has initiated a campaign to try and move households located in these 
flood plains to areas of higher elevation. Nonetheless, these 
weather predictions call for preparedness of all stakeholders to 
respond effectively and timely as the needs arrive. 
 
¶7. (U) POTENTIAL EEFECTS OF FLOODING IN JANUARY-MARCH 2008: 
Generally, December is a very critical month in the early 
development stage of the maize crop in Malawi.  By this time, the 
maize would be approximately 30cm high and is very fragile to any 
shocks.  Flooding during this period can potentially wash away the 
maize crop and require replanting later.  A continuous above normal 
rainfall from December 2007 or January through March 2008 also poses 
a high risk of leaching of both organic and inorganic plant 
nutrients. The GoM is in the process of distributing fertilizer and 
send coupons in readiness for the upcoming agricultural season, and 
any above normal rainfall during this period could potentially water 
down the fertilizer that may have been applied to the crop, thus 
effectively reducing the impact of the fertilizer and other input 
investments.  In addition, excess rainfall during this critical 
period can potentially lead to water-logging and yellowing of the 
maize crop, which can drastically reduce crop yield and effect the 
food security situation for the next consumption year.  This is not 
to mention the risk of loss of lives, household property, 
 
LILONGWE 00000877  002 OF 002 
 
 
livelihood, and infrastructure that may result from any flooding 
among the affected population. 
 
¶8. (U) PREPARATIONS TO DATE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING: The UN and the 
Red Cross have been updating their flood contingency plans in Malawi 
since September 2007 on the basis of "Scenario 2" flooding 
assumptions.  Scenario 2 assumes that localized flooding will occur 
as a result of heavy rainfall, but that this would be limited to a 
relatively short period averaging 2-3 weeks.  Scenario 2 also 
assumes that an average of 15,000 households (equivalent to 83,000 
individuals) spread out across the districts of Chikwawa, Karonga, 
Machinga, Mangochi, Nsanje, Salima and Zomba, are likely to be 
affected by flooding.  While the district list is not exhaustive, 
those districts mentioned above are felt to be the most vulnerable 
and likely to be worst affected should a flood occur.  Areas of the 
flood contingency plan that have been updated include: 1) Contact 
details for all disaster focal points in the GoM at all levels, UN 
Disaster Management Technical Working Group, NGOs, and field-based 
staff; 2) Information on in-country emergency stocks, their 
locations and quantities; 3) Information on what each Agency (UNDP, 
UNICEF, FAO, WHO, Red Cross Movement, and WFP) has planned at Agency 
level in relation to how it will assist towards responding to a 
possible flood disaster; and, 4) Annual Work Plan, bearing in mind 
lessons from the 2007 review meeting. 
 
¶9. (U) USAID officer Mark Visocky is the Mission's Disaster Relief 
Officer.  He can be reached at 265-1-772-455 (office), 265-9-960-020 
(mobile) 
 
EASTHAM