VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLGB #1041/01 3190752
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150752Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4905

UNCLAS KIGALI 001041 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/C PLEASE PASS TO SENATOR KERRY'S STAFF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL RW
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SENATOR KERRY VISIT TO RWANDA 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Post warmly welcomes the November 18-19 visit of 
Senator Kerry to Rwanda.  Rwanda is a nation still struggling 
to overcome the legacy of the devastating 1994 genocide when 
upwards of one million Rwandans lost their lives, and the 
nation's infrastructure, economy and society were terribly 
damaged.  Today, the Government is deeply committed to 
forging national unity through the reconciliation of wanda's 
ethnic groups, and has made great strides in restoring 
security and establishing the underpinnings for a developing 
democracy (see paras 8-12).  The economy has been largely 
rebuilt and Rwanda is seeking to position itself as "the 
Singapore of Africa."  Yet much remains to be done, and we 
are working with the Government of Rwanda (GOR) to finalize a 
Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Country Plan 
(see paras 13 to 16). 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Regionally, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of 
the Congo (DRC) recently signed an agreement - with strong 
U.S. backing - to address the security threat posed by the 
Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR - an armed 
group operating inside the DRC consisting of the remnants of 
the former Armed Forces of Rwanda and the Interahamwe 
militias).  Additionally, Rwanda has become an mportant 
player in peacekeeping operations in Darfur and elsewhere. 
Your visit coincides with the rotation of two 538-person 
Rwandan battalions to Darfur with the U.S. providing the 
airlift capacity.  Finally, the United States is the largest 
bilateral aid donor operating in Rwanda, with almost $175 
million in assistance in FY07. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Your meeting with President Kagame provides an 
opportunity to welcome the recent DRC-Rwanda agreement on the 
FDLR and to thank him for Rwanda's contribution to the 
African Union/United Nations peacekeeping operation in Darfur 
and to express U.S. support for Rwanda's efforts at regional 
economic integration (Rwanda recently joined the East African 
Community).  Your trip to Paul Farmer's Partner's In Health 
hospital in Rwinkwavu will express U.S. support for the 
program's integrated approach to community 
health. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Regional Security:  On November 9, the DRC and 
Rwanda signed an agreement on a common approach to end the 
threat to peace and stability in both countries and the Great 
Lakes region posed by "negative forces," especially the 
Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda that continues 
to operate in North and south Kivu provinces of eastern DRC. 
Tensions between the DRC and the GOR have also centered on 
renegade Congolese Rwandaphone General Laurant Nkunda who has 
not cooperated with the DRC in reintegrating his militia 
forces into the Congo's army.  Successful 2006 elections in 
the DRC, however, have brought hope that Rwanda's large 
eastern neighbor will stabilize and there will increased 
scope for cooperation between the two governments. Uganda and 
Rwanda enjoy the most positive relations in years, and the 
simmering internal political problems in Burundi show signs 
of improvement. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Regional Security:  Tripartite Plus:  In 2004, the 
USG facilitated the formation of the Tripartite forum for 
Rwanda, Uganda, and the DRC (with Burundi added in 2006) to 
discuss regional security issues.  The most recent meetings 
were held in Bujumbura in June and in Kampala in September. 
A meeting of the Chiefs of Defense Staff of the four nations 
took place at the end of August in Kigali, and in Lubumbashi 
in October.  Both considered regional security approaches to 
"negative forces."  In addition to the Tripartite Plus 
meetings, the Tripartite Fusion Cell (TFC) continues 
operations in Kisangani, DRC, with the primary function of 
sharing information on the foreign-armed groups in eastern 
Congo. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) AU/UN Mission in Darfur:  The Rwandan Defense 
Forces (RDF), one of the most competent and professional 
militaries in sub-Saharan Africa, currently has four 
battalions deployed in Darfur, to be attached to the African 
Union Mission/United Nations Hybrid Operation (UNAMID).  The 
USG has been providing logistical and training support for 
the Rwandan contribution to peacekeeping efforts in Sudan 
since initial deployment in August 2004.  The U.S. Air Force 
and US-funded contract airlines have provided transport for 
nearly all troop deployments.  American contractors under the 
ACOTA program (Rwanda became a full ACOTA partner in June, 
2006) have conducted training for twelve battalions in 
preparation for the Darfur deployments.  As noted above, your 
visit coincides with the rotation of two 538-person 
battalions.  We provided transportation in October for a new 
800-person AU/UNAMID hybrid battalion and rotated a 
680-person battalion. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Global Health:  Rwanda is one of 15 "focus 
countries" under the PEPFAR program.  The national HIV 
prevalence rate is approximately 3.1 percent (3.6 percent for 
women, 2.3 percent for men).  A 2005 survey suggests that 
women are contracting HIV/AIDS at a younger age than men, and 
that for both sexes prevalence in urban areas is 
approximately three times higher than in rural areas.  By the 
end of FY 2008, the PEPFAR program in Rwanda will provide at 
least 50,000 persons with anti-retrovial treatment (ART), 
prevent 158,000 new HIV infections, and provide care and 
support to 250,000 persons affected by 
HIV/AIDS, including orphans and vulnerable children.  FY07 
PEPFAR funding for Rwanda was approximately USD 104 million. 
FY08 levels are expected to be nearly USD 124 million.  In 
June 2007, Rwanda hosted the yearly PEPFAR conference and 
garnered high praise for its energy and initiative in its 
HIV/AIDS programming. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In addition, Rwanda is a phase II country for the 
President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). This program works to 
dramatically reduce the incidence of malaria through new 
treatments, indoor residual spraying, home-based management 
of fever in children and increased bed-net use.  PMI funding 
for the first year of the program is USD 20 million and we 
anticipate $17 million in FY08.  The Mission also implements 
successful programs in child survival, maternal and child 
health, reproductive health and family planning.  These 
programs have annual budgets of approximately USD 8 million. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Domestic Political Issues:  In 2003, President 
Kagame was elected to a seven-year term with 95 percent of 
the vote; members of Parliament were elected to five year 
terms in the same year.  Both elections were peaceful, but 
marred by irregularities.  The next legislative elections 
will be held in 2008, with presidential elections following 
in 2010.  Although constitutional and regulatory restrictions 
on political party operations remain in place, and use of 
broadly-worded criminal statutes sanctioning 
"divisionism" and "genocide ideology" concern the human 
rights community, a June 1 law allows parties to organize 
down to the lowest administrative level.  As a result, 
Rwanda's political parties report renewed interest among 
average Rwandans in politics. Other human rights concerns 
include lingering restrictions on a free press, a judicial 
system still hampered by capacity limitations, and a 
developing civil society that must satisfy extensive 
licensing requirements.  Pending legislation appears to 
loosen many restrictions on civil society, and to a lesser 
degree on the press; their final form will be determined in 
the course of the next several months. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Press Freedom:  Press freedom remains the subject 
of much debate and action in Rwanda.  While senior GOR 
officials recognize the importance of a free, effective free 
press to the development of Rwanda's democracy and to 
international perceptions of the country, there have been 
reports of harassment, occasional run-ins with the police and 
other government authorities, and jailing and prosecution of 
several journalists.  Most observers consider the press freer 
than it was two or three years ago, and independent 
newspapers regularly publish articles critical of senior 
government officials and institutions and the ruling Rwanda 
Patriotic Front without government sanction (two have 
recently suspended publication temporarily to protest what 
they consider to be harsh government criticism).  Local 
journalists, who do admit to self-censoring on occasion, 
often confess that their over-riding concern is the 
day-to-day economic obstacles to making journalism profitable. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Justice and the Genocide:  Over 800,000 suspected 
"genocidaires" (those who participated in the 1994 genocide) 
are the subject of judicial inquiry by the "gacaca courts," a 
traditional system modernized and expanded by the GOR.  Over 
90 percent of the pending cases had been adjudicated by 
approximately 3000 gacaca courts by November of this year. 
The gacaca service is optimistic it can finish all cases by 
the end of this year or the beginning of 2008.  The GOR in 
March lessened sentences in the gacaca system.  This summer 
the prison population stabilized at about 90,000 prisoners 
when the GOR decreed that gacaca prisoners would serve their 
suspended and community service sentences first, and return 
to prison at a later date.  Since then, the prison population 
has diminished, alleviating crowded and unsustainable 
conditions, as the government began releasing prisoners 
previously convicted.  While the most serious genocide 
offenders will continue to be judged by the regular courts, 
the gacaca court represent the principal attempt by the GOR 
to achieve justice and reconciliation -- a difficult policy 
balance -- given Rwanda's history of ethnic animosities. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Democracy and Governance Programs:  USG programs 
focus on three areas:  local government, civil society, and 
reconciliation.  We are supporting decentralized governance 
through an innovative wrap-around program in which health and 
governance objectives combine to ensure local management and 
delivery of high quality health services.  The program is 
intended to demonstrate ability for local 
governments to manage and fund public services.  We also 
support a series of smaller projects related to 
reconciliation, such as activities in women's micro-finance, 
women's legal rights, land policy and law, and youth trauma 
therapy. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Economic Development:  Rwanda's main development 
challenges remain its small economy, relative isolation, poor 
infrastructure, energy insecurity, and poorly developed human 
capital.  Rwanda's economy remains largely dependent upon 
foreign aid, while its population remains overwhelmingly 
rural with over 85 percent of families earning a living 
through subsistence agriculture and 56.9 percent of 
households living below the poverty line of 250 Rwandan 
francs a day (about $0.45).  However, Rwanda has achieved an 
average GDP growth rate of 6 percent over the past six years 
and increased the total value of exports by 23 percent in 
¶2005.  The government has established important policy 
benchmarks for overhauling the economy, and establishing 
Rwanda as a regional crossroads bridging the Francophone west 
and Anglophone east.  It has achieved major improvements in 
the areas of tax collection, banking, trade agreements, 
anti-corruption, and fiscal policy.  It has improved road 
conditions throughout the country, and maintained a low 
corruption rate relative to neighboring countries. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Specialty Coffee:  In 2001, the country produced 
only low-grade commercial quality beans for export despite 
coffee being the traditional number one export earner.  Over 
the past six years, the USG has invested an estimated USD 10 
million in promoting and developing the Rwandan coffee 
industry, building and rehabilitating coffee washing station, 
training farmers and "cuppers" (coffee tasters), organizing 
cooperatives, encouraging banks to lend to Rwandan investors 
to build coffee washing stations, and improving rural 
infrastructure.  Today, Rwandan coffee has become known as 
one of the "best of the best" coffees in the world. Rwanda 
exported 1,100 tons of high quality specialty coffee in 2005, 
and 2,000 tons in 2006.  While still a small proportion of 
overall coffee exports, these crops earn top prices for the 
coffee growers, and have resulted in better health care, 
education, and housing in 
coffee farming communities.  In 2006, Starbucks launched a 
promotional campaign featuring the best of Rwandan coffee, a 
program seen by an estimated 19 million customers per week in 
over 5,000 Starbucks retail stores throughout the U.S. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Poverty Reduction:  The government has made 
efforts, with measurable results, to reduce poverty and to 
improve access to health care and education, despite its 
severely limited resources.  Under its national policy of 
universal primary education, the GOR provides free primary 
education to all children.  A joint GOR-donor task force is 
focusing on improvement of girls' education.  The GOR is also 
attempting to improve access to health care through greater 
decentralization to ensure inadequate health services at the 
local level.  In addition, it has implemented plans for the 
prevention, protection, and reintegration of street children 
(currently 7,000 out of 4.2 million children), including 
vocational training to promote self-reliance through 
development of income-generating skills.  Rwanda is 
completing its Economic Development and Poverty Reduction 
Strategy (EDPRS) at the end of 2007.  Rwanda had completed 
the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) debt relief 
initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative by the 
end of 2006.  Completion of these two debt initiatives 
significantly reduced its overall debt.  Anticipated GDP 
growth for the immediate future should continue at 5-6 
percent, while 
inflation may rise given high energy costs and large donor 
inflows.  Rwanda does face challenges to food security from 
cyclic rainfall shortages. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Millennium Challenge Corporation Country Threshold 
Program: Rwanda was selected in 2006 for the Threshold 
program. The GOR with assistance from the Mission is putting 
the finishing touches on a Threshold Country Plan intended to 
improve its scores on MCC's Ruling Justly basket of 
indicators.  The Threshold program will focus on three main 
components: strengthening the judicial sector, aiding civic 
participation, and promoting civil rights and civil 
liberties.  Rwanda has passed all three baskets of 
indicators (the others are Economic Freedom and Investing in 
People) in 2007, and so is theoretically eligible for full 
Compact negotiations. 
ARIETTI