VZCZCXRO1690
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1752/01 3121530
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081530Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9120
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001752 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
 
SUBJECT: JEM CFC REP WARNS OF LOOMING CONFLICTS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In a sobering November 6 meeting with FieldOff, 
the Justice and Equality Movement representative to the Second 
Chamber of the Ceasefire Commission (CFC) at AMIS Headquarters 
warned that the current widespread deployment of the Sudanese Armed 
Forces (SAF) throughout the three Darfur states - in an attempt to 
expand areas of control - will only strengthen the resolve of the 
rebel movements to present a unified front, not only in Sirte talks 
but also on the battlefield against the SAF.  According to the JEM 
rep, JEM and Sudan Liberation Army-Unity movements are close to 
unifying and will likely attend planned December peace negotiations, 
but only if a neutral venue, clear end date and absence of 
GoS-aligned factions can be assured.  The JEM rep blames such 
factions for the September attack on AMIS forces at Haskanita and 
warned that history would repeat itself if the international 
community does not bring to justice the perpetrators of this attack. 
 The rep predicts that the likelihood of estrangement from his IDP 
support base will ultimately drive SLA leader Abdelwahid al-Nur to 
the December talks.  JEM rep reaffirmed JEM's stated intention to 
continue attacks against China if it maintains its support to the 
GoS.  The rep's messages in this meeting illustrate the tense 
atmosphere that persists as all parties to the Darfur conflict 
jockey for both positions at the negotiating table and areas of 
control on the ground.  END SUMMARY. 
 
AS SAF DARFUR DEPLOYMENT INTENSIFIES . . . 
------------------------------------------ 
¶2. (SBU) The JEM CFC representative did not mince words in a 
November 6 courtesy call with FieldOff in Bashir's office at AMIS El 
Fasher Headquarters when characterizing the current SAF deployment 
in the three Darfur states as a "preparation for war."  He described 
in great detail evidence of this deployment (which the rep claims 
JEM has submitted as a complaint to AMIS), seen in movement of heavy 
equipment through airports in Darfur state capitals, in the presence 
of 70 SAF Land Cruisers in Jedid al-Sail (a village 16-20 km 
northeast of El Fasher) and of SAF helicopter gunships in El 
Geneina, and in the deployment of SAF members to El Geneina via 
Nyala by the trainload.  JEM rep asserts that all this activity is a 
GoS attempt to expand its areas of control on the ground in the 
countdown to final peace negotiations slated for December.  He also 
claims to have the names of the leaders of the 4000 janjaweed 
fighters whom the GoS has recruited in each of the three Darfur 
states.  Cutting the 90-minute meeting "short" in order to catch a 
ride to an undisclosed location in the field, the JEM rep promised 
to provide FieldOff with exact locations of significant SAF 
deployments upon his return. 
 
. . . SO TOO DOES REBELS' RESOLVE FOR UNITY 
------------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) JEM rep contends that the SAF's deployment plans have shown 
the rebel movements and factions the futility of reacting 
independently to the GoS military threat and have consequently 
strengthened their resolve to seek a united front around the 
negotiating table and on the battlefield.  According to the rep, JEM 
and SLA-Unity have signed an agreement in the past days to unite 
against the SAF threat.  On the political side, JEM and SLA-Unity 
are coordinating their leadership and forming joint teams to try to 
unify their views ahead of peace talks - not quite true unification 
yet, rep says, but very close to it.  He assures JEM is ready for 
the upcoming talks and will likely attend, but only if a neutral 
venue, a clear end date, and an absence of what he considers 
GoS-aligned factions (including JEM-Idriss Ibrahim Azrag, 
JEM-Collective Leadership Banda Abu Garda and National Movement for 
Reconstruction and Development) can be assured. 
 
¶4. (SBU) JEM rep reports that the other rebel movements are 
similarly uniting militarily to attack SAF assembly points. 
Politically the five main SLA factions continue their efforts in 
Juba to combat what he considers GoS attempts at fragmentation, and 
the rep expects those movements will form two groups to present 
themselves at December negotiations.  JEM rep faults the 
international community for giving a forum to the "small and 
insignificant" factions that went to Sirte, especially JEM 
Collective Leadership - Bahar/Banda, which Bashir says is 
responsible for the September attack on the AMIS installation at 
Haskanita.  The JEM rep serves on the AMIS team investigating this 
incident, which he characterizes as an act of banditry by poorly 
equipped groups attempting to re-arm and preying on AMIS in an area 
outside the peacekeepers' control.  He warns that Haskanita history 
will repeat itself and that a similar incident will happen again if 
the international community and the African Union do not bring to 
justice the perpetrators of this attack. 
 
¶5. (SBU) JEM rep acknowledges the persisting influence of SLA leader 
Abdelwahid al-Nur on the IDP Fur populations but recommends that the 
December talks go on should al-Nur opt not to go.  The rep predicts 
that the likelihood of estrangement from his IDP support base should 
 
KHARTOUM 00001752  002 OF 002 
 
 
other rebel factions conclude an agreement at negotiations while 
al-Nur stays away will ultimately compel Abdelwahid to attend. 
 
CHINA STILL NOT EXEMPT FROM BLAME 
--------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) JEM rep reasserted JEM's stated intention, following its 
October 23 kidnapping of foreign employees at the Delfra oilfield in 
Kordofan, to continue attacks against China if it maintains its 
support to the GoS.  He contends that China's only contribution to 
the Darfur crisis is in weapons - "all arms captured in battle in 
Darfur were made in China"   - not in humanitarian assistance, and 
that China is "continuing to steal our oil," thus justifying JEM's 
campaign against Chinese workers in Sudan.  The rep said JEM had 
advised other oil exporters (namely India) to halt production until 
Darfur peace was achieved, but he did not rule out the possibility 
of JEM's targeting other nationalities for following China's lead. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶7. (SBU) The JEM rep interviewed, bearing the rank of general, is a 
prime example of a high-ranking rebel representative who still 
maintains field credibility.  He appeared in fatigues and headwrap 
for the meeting with FieldOff, and discussion was regularly 
interrupted by the incessant ringing of his cell phone.  The rep cut 
the 90-minute meeting "short" to catch a flight to an undisclosed 
location, illustrating his intimate knowledge of the situation on 
the ground.  While his opposition to the GoS colors his discourse, 
JEM rep's messages nonetheless illustrate the tense atmosphere that 
persists as all parties to the Darfur conflict jockey for both 
positions at the negotiating table and areas of control on the 
battlefield.   END COMMENT. 
 
FERNANDEZ