VZCZCXRO9163
OO RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #3842/01 3190127
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 150127Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1448
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW AFGHANS OPTIMISTIC, CONCERNED ABOUT 
SAFETY AND ECONOMY 
 
KABUL 00003842  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Three polls released this fall suggest, contrary to 
many international press reports, that Afghans continue to 
feel that their country is headed in the right direction, 
with little change in attitudes from a year ago.  The most 
pronounced difference over last year is a rise in perceptions 
of insecurity, more due to lawlessness and crime than 
terrorism and insurgents.  These latter concerns remain 
paramount in the south.  Nationally and especially at the 
local level, Afghans stress the importance of development, 
particularly electricity, employment, water, education, and 
roads.  Despite concern with corruption, the Afghan 
government gets relatively high marks -- especially for 
health and education.  The polls collectively suggest a 
realistic leveling-off of expectations for the future, a 
durable desire for improved economic opportunity, and a 
renewed concern with security and public safety following a 
summer of increased crime and terrorist attacks designed to 
instill fear in the population.  The poll results suggest 
that daily international media coverage of Afghanistan paints 
a more negative picture than that held by the Afghans 
themselves.  End Summary. 
 
Optimism, But Concern with Security and Economy 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Three national polls released in fall 2007 show 
increasing concerns with security relative to previous years, 
but stable hopes for the future.  The polls -- conducted by 
the Asia Foundation (TAF), Environics, and MRA -- cover all 
34 provinces and are based on results gathered in summer 
2007, a period which saw a rise in insurgent violence, 
particularly in the south and east. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Asia Foundation's (TAF) "Afghanistan in 2007: A 
Survey of the Afghan People," funded by USAID, is the largest 
comprehensive opinion poll ever conducted in Afghanistan with 
a sample of 6,232 taken in June 2007.  The TAF poll concludes 
that "the mood of the country continues to be optimistic" 
with 42 percent of Afghans believing that their country is 
moving in the right direction and 24 percent in the wrong 
direction (statistically the same as the 44 percent of 
positive respondents in 2006).  Reconstruction was cited as 
the single largest reason for this optimism (39 percent), 
followed by good security (34 percent).  Those who think the 
country is not moving in the right direction overwhelmingly 
cited insecurity (48 percent) followed by different aspects 
of weaknesses in governance and the economy. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Environics' "2007 Survey of Afghans," the first 
national poll commissioned by the Government of Canada, 
sampled 1,578 Afghans from September 17-24, with a particular 
focus on Kandahar.  Similar to the TAF results, the 
Environics poll showed that 51 percent of Afghans believe 
their country is going in the right direction, with 28 
percent saying it is headed in the wrong direction.  The 
optimists cite security, reconstruction, disarmament, and 
schools for girls, while the pessimists cite lack of security 
and safety, and a poor economy.  The Environics poll suggests 
that 60 percent of Afghans feel personally better off today 
than in 2002, but they are somewhat less apt to believe they 
are better off than they were a year ago (36 percent).  Over 
two out of three Afghans feel that foreign countries are 
doing a good job of fighting the Taliban (64 percent 
positive, 17 percent negative), providing reconstruction 
assistance (65 percent positive, 15 percent negative), and 
training the army and police (75 percent positive, 9 percent 
negative). 
 
¶5. (SBU) These results are largely consistent with MRA's 
fifth "Afghan National Development Poll" commissioned by 
Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A), 
which sampled 5,310 nation-wide households in July 2007.  The 
poll shows that there has been a gradual downward trend for 
optimism after a sharp drop following the parliamentary 
 
KABUL 00003842  002 OF 003 
 
 
elections in 2005, leveling off at around 50 percent. 
 
Security:  Increasing Concern with Public Safety 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The three polls suggest that worries about 
criminality and other public safety issues increased across 
the country, with insurgent-related security a top concern in 
the south and east.  The TAF poll showed that 46 percent of 
Afghans think that security is the biggest problem facing the 
country (up from 27 percent last year), followed by 29 
percent for unemployment, reversing the order of these 
concerns from last year.  Two out of three Afghans rated the 
security situation in their area as good, and one out of 
three as bad, including a majority in the south.  But about 
42 percent felt the country is headed in the right direction, 
a finding statistically consistent with last year's results. 
Those who answered that the country is not headed in the 
right direction blamed insecurity most.  Respondents 
identifying the Taliban or warlords as the biggest problem 
facing the country are down from 32 percent last year to 17 
percent this year, suggesting that the perception of reduced 
security may be due to lawlessness and crime.  The MRA poll 
suggests that a majority of sources of insecurity are not due 
directly to the insurgency and that they vary by region, with 
criminality rising in the north, narcotics trafficking 
prominent in the west, and the Taliban and Pakistan dominant 
concerns in the south and east. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Afghans show high levels of confidence in their 
national security forces, especially the army.  They welcome 
the Coalition Forces, but more for their contribution to 
development than to security.  Both the TAF and Environics 
samples yielded high marks to the Afghan Security Forces, 
with 80 percent of respondents registering confidence in the 
army (90 percent TAF, 84 percent Environics), and over 75 
percent indicating confidence in the police (80 percent TAF, 
76 percent Environics).  The MRA poll shows that large 
majorities of Afghans see the police as primarily responsible 
for bringing security (84 percent in Kabul, 54 percent in the 
north, and 66 percent in the west).  These figures for police 
drop to less than a quarter of respondents in the south and 
less than 40 percent in the east, where local shuras are 
credited with bringing security by about a quarter of 
respondents (29 percent in the south and 22 percent in the 
east), more than for the army or foreign forces.  The 
Environics poll showed that Afghans welcome the contribution 
of Coalition Forces, with 60 percent describing the presence 
of foreigners as good, 16 percent bad, and 22 percent equally 
good and bad. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Few Afghans support the insurgents or their methods, 
but most Afghans support negotiations to bring about peace. 
The Environics poll shows support for the Taliban at 14 
percent, and 71 percent responded that suicide bombings are 
never justified.  However, 74 percent support negotiations 
with the Taliban to end the fighting. 
 
Development:  A High Local Priority 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Following insecurity, which increased as a source of 
concern in all polls, the TAF poll identified unemployment, a 
poor economy, and corruption as the most difficult issues 
facing Afghanistan.  Economic development remained the 
biggest concern at the local level, with respondents 
identifying electricity, unemployment, water, education, and 
roads (each at 10-15 percent), followed by security at 9 
percent.  Security remained the dominant concern in the south. 
 
¶10. (SBU) According to the TAF poll, about half of Afghans 
think that their families are more prosperous today than 
under the Taliban (49 percent, compared to 54 percent in 
2006), and just over a quarter feel they are less prosperous 
(28 percent, statistically the same as last year's 26 
percent).  Pashtuns were twice as likely as Tajiks to 
describe themselves as less prosperous today than under the 
 
KABUL 00003842  003 OF 003 
 
 
Taliban (20 percent for Pashtuns, 10 percent for Tajiks). 
About 40 percent of respondents of all ethnicities in the 
south described themselves as less prosperous today than 
under the Taliban.  Compared to two years ago, over half of 
respondents said access to schools has improved (51 percent), 
and just under half said the health situation of their family 
has improved (43 percent). 
 
Governance:  Confidence in Government, But Corrupt 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Afghans indicated a high degree of confidence in 
the national government's performance in key areas, with 80 
percent of the TAF sample indicating that the government is 
doing a very good or somewhat good job, particularly on 
education and health.  Respondents felt the government is 
delivering a sub-par performance on employment, economic 
revival, and corruption.  The Environics poll showed 
similarly high approval ratings, with 71 percent very or 
somewhat positive in their opinion of the Karzai government, 
versus 20 percent who are negative.  The MRA poll shows that 
nearly two out of three Afghans believe that their government 
will be able to bring security, jobs, and reconstruction in 
the next few years, with a majority in all regions.  The TAF 
poll showed the highest level of confidence in the Afghan 
National Security Forces, followed by electronic media, 
tribal and provincial councils, international NGOs, and 
Community Development Councils (CDCs).  Afghans prefer 
traditional justice mechanisms to the formal system, and 
distrust political parties and militias; fewer than half of 
respondents expressed confidence in these institutions. 
 
¶12. (SBU) While the government is perceived to be effective, 
Afghans also consider it corrupt.  The TAF sample shows that 
57 percent of Afghans believe that national corruption has 
worsened in the past year.  Perception of the prevalence of 
corruption was higher at the the national level (74 percent 
of respondents) than at the provincial (60 percent) or local 
levels (48 percent), which may be explained in part by the 
feeling among Afghans that the central government is distant 
from their daily lives and the difficulty they have in 
linking large foreign aid flows to specific local benefits. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Afghans oppose poppy production, but they do not 
blame it for the problems Afghanistan is facing.  A large 
majority of Afghans felt cultivation of opium poppies was 
wrong (80 percent), half of those saying their opposition was 
based on religious concerns.  Less than 10 percent linked 
poppies to terrorism, insecurity, or corruption. 
 
Durable Optimism, Consistent Priorities 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) These polls collectively suggest a leveling-off of 
expectations consistent with a country struggling with 
poverty and insecurity six years after the euphoria that 
accompanied the fall of the Taliban.  Afghans respond like a 
poor country with high expectations for the future, rather 
than a downtrodden country at war, except in the south where 
the insurgency remains the dominant concern.  But they are 
also the views of the population at large, not the 
politically aware or active elite. 
 
 
WOOD