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RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1781
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RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0927
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 001073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S.HILL 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN 
TREASURY FOR J.RALYEA AND T.RAND 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN 
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI
 
SUBJECT: Zim Notes November 30, 2007 
 
¶1.  The Embassy Harare Political/Economic Section began producing 
Zim Notes in July, 2007 to present a perspective on current events 
in Zimbabwe.  Suggestions are always welcome. If you would like to 
receive Zim Notes by email, as well, please contact Frances Chisholm 
at chisholmfm@state.gov. Distribution is restricted to U.S. 
government employees. 
 
¶2.  Parallel exchange rate: ZW$2,000,000:US$1 
Official exchange rate: ZW$30,000:US$1 
 
Sugar on the parallel market jumped to Z$1.2 million/2kg vs. 
controlled price of Z$247,000/2kg 
Cooking oil on the parallel market Z$5 million/750 ml vs. new 
controlled price of Z$440,000/750 ml 
Fuel - Z$2.4 million/liter vs. Z$60,000/liter at controlled price 
(and scarcer than ever) 
 
----------------------------- 
On the Political/Social Front 
----------------------------- 
 
Proposed Changes to Electoral Laws Positive, But - The Electoral 
Laws Amendment Bill published on Nov. 16 and pending debate in 
Parliament proposes to amend the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission Act 
and the Electoral Act to provide an improved electoral framework. 
Major changes to the electoral law would include: continual 
registration of voters (up until the day before candidates are 
formally nominated), less restrictive procedural requirements for 
voter registration, electronic copies of voter rolls to political 
parties, exclusion of security forces from running polling stations, 
equal access to state media for editorial time and advertising, and 
foreign election observers (although the justice minister may ban 
some groups).  It is important to note that an improved electoral 
law will be significant only if the political atmosphere, which 
continues to feature violence and intimidation, is improved; and if 
there is time for the opposition to take advantage of the electoral 
law and other changes before elections take place. 
 
Police Bash 22 Activists During Mbeki Visit - Some 400 National 
Constitutional Assembly (NCA) activists turned out in Harare on Nov. 
22 to protest against continuing state-sanctioned political violence 
against opposition and civil society activists.  The group intended 
to intercept the motorcade of South African President Mbeki who was 
in town to press for a quick conclusion to the drawn-out mediation 
talks between the ruling party and the opposition.  Ironically, one 
of the key issues still under discussion is the cessation of the 
political violence.  Maddock Chivasa, NCA spokesperson, told us that 
police dispersed the crowd using batons and injuring nine activists 
just before Mbeki was to pass by the demonstration.  Soon after, 
suspected state agents in plain clothes forced 22 NCA members into 
minibuses and took them to ZANU-PF provincial offices in Harare 
where they were beaten.  The activists were turned over to police 
later that evening and then eventually released some hours later 
after paying a fine.  Chivasa reported that all 22 required medical 
attention for their injuries; 10 required hospitalization. 
 
Zimbabwe Low On U.N. Human Development Index - The 2007 U.N. Human 
Development Index, released this week, put Zimbabwe, DRC and Zambia 
at a lower level of development than they enjoyed in 1975.   Most 
countries have seen their human development index rise over the last 
30 years, but in 16 countries it was lower than in 1990.  The index 
ranks 175 U.N. member countries plus two territories by life 
expectancy, education levels and real per capita income. 
 
Senegal's Wade Visits Harare - Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade 
visited Harare on Wednesday and proposed a committee of at least 
five heads of state, including South Africa's Thabo Mbeki, to 
mediate an improvement of relations between Zimbabwe and the United 
Kingdom.  Wade was reported as stating that while he did not condone 
 
HARARE 00001073  002 OF 004 
 
 
President Robert Mugabe's policies, they should be understood in 
their historical context.  While praising SADC's mediation efforts 
under Mbeki, Wade said they were inadequate and that Africa should 
do more to help Zimbabwe.  For his part, Mbeki said he was unaware 
of the visit. 
 
Prelude to the EU-AU Summit - Tomaz Salomao, SADC executive 
secretary, said SADC would pull its 14 members out of the EU-AU 
 
SIPDIS 
summit, scheduled for December 8-9 in Lisbon, unless European 
leaders agreed not to single out Zimbabwe for criticism.  Zimbabwe 
will most likely be discussed not as a separate agenda item but as 
part of a discussion on governance and human rights.  Mugabe intends 
to attend; UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has stated he will not. 
 
 
 
Zanu PF All Set For Million Men And Women March - Zanu PF has 
launched a major media campaign, using radio and TV adverts, to 
encourage people to join the million men and women march set for 
Friday November 30, 2007, and show support for President Robert 
Mugabe's candidacy for 2008.  Additional train and bus service is 
being provided for marchers coming from out of town, with over 150 
buses having reportedly been pledged by private transport owners. 
The march is expected to start at 11 am in the center of Harare and 
end in Highfield, a low density suburb located approx 12 km out of 
town.  Although the war veteran's association under the leadership 
of Jabulani Sibanda was initially at the forefront of campaign 
marches in support of Mugabe, ZANU-PF has appropriated the 
organization after various party bigwigs expressed dissatisfaction 
with the leadership of Sibanda, who had been expelled from the 
party. 
 
WOZA Marks "16 Days Of Activism Against Gender Violence" With 
Peaceful Demonstration - On Tuesday 27 November, approximately 1000 
members of WOZA marched through central Bulawayo to support the 
global campaign 16 Days of Activism Against Violence Against Women." 
  The group walked for four blocks singing and chanting slogans 
before it was stopped by police who told the group the official 
government campaign did not begin until the following day.  The 
marchers dispersed without incident.   WOZA leader Jenni Williams 
told us that the march was the fourth demonstration in a row WOZA 
had managed to stage without arrest.  She also said high ranking 
police officers were becoming increasingly conciliatory toward WOZA 
demonstrators. 
 
UK Lifts Ban on Deportation of Zimbabweans, Appeal Expected - The UK 
Embassy confirmed media reports that the UK Asylum and Immigration 
Tribunal (AIT) upheld the Court of Appeal's 2006 ruling that 
Zimbabweans face no automatic risk of persecution following 
deportation.  Since 2002, UK Immigration has fought a legal bar on 
deporting Zimbabweans who are denied asylum, allowing thousands to 
remain indefinitely in the UK without legal basis.  The AIT's Nov. 
23 decision to lift that ban, however, is unlikely to result in the 
immediate resumption of deportations, according to the UK Embassy 
Head of Visas David Ashford; UK Immigration officials expect the 
decision to be appealed again, almost certainly requiring another 
moratorium on deportations.  The UK officials don't wish to repeat 
the embarrassing scenario of August 2006 when a similar ruling 
resulted in only one successful deportation before the moratorium 
was imposed.  Canada has a similar moratorium on Zimbabwean 
deportations resulting from a court case also under appeal; the USG 
deports Zimbabweans for all manner of reasons, including failed 
asylum applications. 
 
Bulawayo's Water Crisis Deepens - Bulawayo City Council is 
decommissioning the Invankuni Dam today, leaving Zimbabwe's second 
city with only one supply dam, according to the Chronicle.  The 
state-owned newspaper reported that water rationing in the city 
would spread to the central business district; residential areas 
 
HARARE 00001073  003 OF 004 
 
 
would receive supplies once a week, and industrial areas twice a 
week.   See Harare 1051 for details of Bulawayo's water woes. 
 
Zimbabwe's Deteriorating Public Health System - Harare 1047 
describes how Zimbabwe's public health care system, once among the 
best in Sub-Saharan Africa, is being eroded by mismanagement and 
under funding which have led to deteriorating infrastructure, low 
public expenditure, and high attrition of human resources.  As a 
result, the system today is characterized by inadequate staffing, 
reduced accessibility by the general population, shortages of 
essential drugs and medical supplies, and outdated and poorly 
functioning equipment.  Many health indicators have worsened, and 
while the HIV prevalence rate has declined, Zimbabwe is still home 
to one of the worst HIV/AIDS epidemics in the world.  The GOZ is 
able, but unwilling, to address the current economic and health 
crises. While current donor support in the health sector is 
primarily focused on HIV and reproductive health, many programs are 
designed with intentional spill-over effects to strengthen systems 
within the public health sector.  Such programs are enabling the 
continuation of some basic health care services for an increasingly 
impoverished population. 
 
USAID Celebrates World AIDS Day With Award Ceremony - USAID hosted 
the 7th Annual Auxillia Chimusora Awards on November 29.  The award 
celebrates the bravery and leadership of the first woman to publicly 
announce her HIV status in Zimbabwe (in 1987), at a time when stigma 
was extremely high.  The awards, prestigious in the HIV community, 
are given to individuals and organizations in the fields of media, 
arts, corporate responsibility, orphans and vulnerable children, and 
advocacy to recognize leadership in the field of HIV and AIDS and 
impact achieved on reducing stigma.  While Auxillia Chimusora is 
deceased, she was represented at the event by her daughter and other 
family members.  Ambassador McGee presided over the event, attended 
by approximately 400 guests, and was joined in formal remarks by 
Minister of Health David Parirenyatwa and USAID Director Karen 
Freeman. 
 
 
--------------------------- 
Economic and Business News 
--------------------------- 
 
Independent Press Reports New Currency Launch on December 1.- The 
Independent reported on November 29 that the RBZ would rollout 
"Sunrise II" - introduction of a new currency - on December 1 and 
that the changeover would require a minimum of three days instead of 
the 48 hours initially suggested.  Gono announced last weekend cash 
deposit limits of Z$50 million for individuals, Z$200 million for 
businesses, and Z$1 billion for wholesalers and other large cash 
handlers, effective December 1, unless one can account for the 
source of the cash.  In spite of the pressure to bank one's cash, 
its availability at banks did not improve this week.  However, more 
cash began to circulate in the informal market, wiping out the 
premium at which it had been trading and sharply driving down its 
value vis a vis hard currencies. 
Z$58 Trillion Cash In Circulation; Is There Hoarding? - Reserve Bank 
officials said that about Z$30 trillion of Zimbabwe's total Z$58 
trillion cash in circulation was being held outside the banking 
system.  Using that figure, RBZ Governor Gono lashed out at "cash 
barons" for hoarding notes and fuelling the parallel market in 
currency and goods.  But commentators were quick to note that Z$30 
trillion divided among a population of roughly 10 million (on the 
high side) averaged out to only Z$3 million per person, hardly a 
hoard when it  doesn't even suffice to buy a small bottle of cooking 
oil on the street in these hyperinflationary times. 
Finance Minister Announces Z$7.8 Quadrillion Budget - With 
starry-eyed projections of 4 percent growth in 2008 and inflation 
falling to 1,978% by December 2008, Finance Minister Samuel 
Mumbengegwi announced a Z$7.8 quadrillion "People's Budget"(that's 
 
HARARE 00001073  004 OF 004 
 
 
Z$7,800,000,000,000,000, or US$3.9 billion at the parallel exchange 
rate and about US$260 billion at the official rate) on November 29. 
Details and analysis to follow septel. 
More Staples Appear In Supermarkets, But At Exorbitant Prices - 
Supermarkets appear to be getting more frequent deliveries of bread, 
soft drinks, local beer, some chicken and sausages, but the goods 
disappear quickly amid consumer uncertainty about supplies.  In 
addition, the lid appears to be off prices in apparent reaction to 
Industry Minister Mpofu's announcement on November 22 that there 
would be no repeat of the disastrous price crackdown of the last 
months. 
Air Zambia Suspends Direct Flights To Harare - On the heels of 
British Airway's withdrawal from Zimbabwe last month, Air Zambia 
announced suspension of its Lusaka Harare direct flight effective 
December 1.  Contacts in the industry told us the airline was 
operating at a loss on the route, especially due to the high fuel 
prices and fluctuations in the Zimbabwe dollar exchange rate. 
 
In the meantime, Air Zimbabwe increased its fares across the board: 
roundtrip Harare Johannesburg went from Z$84 million to Z$195 
million, Harare Lusaka shot to Z$130 million from Z$54 million, and 
a return flight to London now sets a traveler back Z$1.3 billion - 
up from Z$600 million a week ago. 
 
Mobile Carriers Raise Tariffs, Too - Econet, Telecel and Net One 
announced new rates this week for phone calls and text messages. 
Econet's tariffs went up by about 650%; a local text message now 
costs Z$11,000 (less than one US cent on the parallel market). 
Analysts commented that the tariffs were still very low in real 
terms, well below regional comparisons, and, for Econet, below its 
own target of about 15 US cents/message.  A text messages from 
GOZ-owned Net One increased to Z$8,000. 
 
World Bank Concludes Mission, Not Sanguine About GOZ Economic 
Stabilization Plan - World Bank Mission Chief Naoko Kojo and the 
Acting Country Manager Mungai Lenneiye expressed skepticism to the 
diplomatic community on November 29 about the prospects for the 
successful implementation of the GOZ's plan, approved by the 
cabinet, to introduce a one-year Stabilization and Short-Term 
Recovery Program in January.   At the conclusion of the two-week 
mission, they lamented the lack of cooperation and consensus on the 
way forward among the GOZ's competing economic policy institutions: 
the RBZ, the Finance Ministry, and the Ministry of Economic 
Development.  Details to follow septel. 
 
IMF Mission Due in December - IMF staff will visit Zimbabwe December 
13-19.  The primary purpose of the mission, according to World Bank 
Mission Chief Kojo, is data compilation.  Embassy Harare is 
coordinating a business briefing for the mission by representatives 
of the American Business Association of Zimbabwe on day-one of the 
visit and Amb will host a debrief for fellow ambassadors on December 
¶18. 
 
McGEE