VZCZCXRO6439
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #4823/01 3061153
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021153Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3843
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 004823 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: SPD's New Direction to Face Test in Hesse Election 
 
REF.: Berlin 1977; Berlin 2004 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1. At the October 26-28 Social Democratic Party (SPD) national 
convention, the party's decision to adopt a platform advocating 
greater "social justice" bolstered the prestige of the Hesse SPD. 
Facing a state election in January 2008, Hesse SPD candidate Andrea 
Ypsilanti gained influence and esteem during the convention as the 
national party's agenda moved closer to her own. The Hesse election 
will test not only Ypsilanti's popularity with the electorate, but 
also the popularity of the SPD's new platform in an important German 
state.  END SUMMARY. 
 
National Party Follows Hesse to the Left 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  The SPD national convention in Hamburg saw several grassroots 
initiatives push the party agenda slightly to the left, more in line 
with the direction advocated by Hesse Party Chairperson and Minister 
President candidate Andrea Ypsilanti.  The proposal to put technical 
restrictions on the building of coal-fired power plants began as an 
initiative of the Hesse SPD.  The Hesse SPD leadership has also long 
advocated the creation of people's shares (Volksaktien) in the 
Deutsche Bahn ownership structure as a way of warding off foreign 
buyers, an idea that carried the day at the convention over the 
national party leadership's wishes. 
 
¶3.  In another clear victory for the Hesse SPD, Ypsilanti received 
444 votes for the national party board, second only to party 
chairperson Kurt Beck and ahead of Foreign Minister Frank-Walter 
Steinmeier.  The result bolsters Ypsilanti, a relative unknown 
outside Hesse and the SPD, in an election year and affirms the 
national party's support for her politics.  The Party Whip of the 
Hesse SPD, Norbert Schmitt, told Pol Specialist that the 
"consistent, critical but constructive approach of the Hesse SPD and 
its many initiatives in recent years have been acknowledged and 
rewarded. The Hesse SPD feels that its course has been confirmed by 
the national convention." 
 
Ypsilanti - From Outlaw to Emblem 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Ypsilanti has long been identified with the SPD's left-wing and 
is well known for her opposition to the Agenda 2010 economic reforms 
pushed through by former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.  At the 
time, she criticized the Agenda 2010 and Harz IV reforms as 
economically unjust, prompting Schroeder's famous remark: "I will 
not let the Ypsilantis of this party dictate my politics."  Under 
Beck, the SPD appears to have chosen to move in the direction of 
Ypsilanti's original politics instead of reaffirming Schroeder's 
reforms and taking credit for the subsequent economic upswing. 
Ypsilanti's selection as Hesse SPD chairperson in December, 2006 
signaled the Hesse SPD's shift to the left, in opposition to the 
more centrist course advocated by her party rival, Juergen Walter. 
Her selection, unpopular among SPD voters in Hesse at the time, 
presaged the current divisions within the national party over the 
Schroeder reforms. 
 
A House Divided 
--------------- 
 
¶6.  The Hesse SPD remains divided going into the 2008 state 
election.  With current polls showing the SPD at 30% and the CDU at 
43%, the centrists of the Hesse SPD argue that the party needs to 
take credit for the current economic upswing by trumpeting its role 
in the Schroeder reforms.  Walter, an unwavering supporter of Agenda 
2010, told Poloff that "this is no way to win an election," arguing 
that the party should be reaching to the center to appeal to a wider 
electorate.  Walter pointed to the party's 20% poll numbers in 
Frankfurt calling them "a disaster."  For Walter, the change in 
direction may have bolstered Ypsilanti in the party, but it only 
forces the party to compete with the Left Party for left-leaning 
voters, rather than reaching for the larger amount of voters in the 
center. 
 
¶7.  COMMENT (SBU): Two short years have brought the rise of 
Ypsilanti from a maverick under Schroeder to an influential leftist 
voice in the SPD.  Before the SPD's national convention in Hamburg, 
party members often called the Hesse SPD "the last village in Gaul 
to resist Roman rule."  The question now becomes whether Ypsilanti 
can translate her popularity in the party to electoral success among 
an electorate which has approved of the government's economic reform 
programs in the past.  Ypsilanti runs the risk of failing to appeal 
to both the moderate center and more left-wing voters.  Voters will 
decide on January 27 whether Ypsilanti's call for social justice in 
a time of economic growth resonates outside the party.  The national 
SPD will pay close attention as its new direction is put to its 
first test in Hesse.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8.  This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
FRANKFURT 00004823  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
POWELL