VZCZCXRO7624
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1651/01 3191853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151853Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1357
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 2320
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2239
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 2294
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 2012
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/USCENTCOM TELECOM CENTER MACDILL AFB FL
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 3266

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001651 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S 3,600 MEGAWATT MIRAGE - ROGUN DAM PROJECT 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00001651  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Government of Tajikistan is still 
actively seeking a partner with the estimated $2 billion needed 
to complete the 3,600 megawatt Rogun dam.  During a November 10 
visit to the site, project engineers gave EmbOffs a tour and 
their perspectives of the thirty-year-old project.  They said 
the Russian conglomerate RusAl had invested $3.5 million in the 
past three years for dormitory buildings and basic 
infrastructure.  In the past thirty years over 60 kilometers of 
tunnels were designed, with 30 more ready to transport earth and 
rock quarried from the valley walls.  The engineers also said 
that in the Soviet era, Uzbekistan's National Academy of 
Sciences calculated that the reservoir would also be able to 
provide enough water for Uzbekistan's irrigation needs. 
Tajikistan's attempt to complete the dam remains a major source 
of bitterness with Uzbekistan.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) About 60 miles east of Dushanbe in a narrow gorge of 
the Karotegin Mountains, the Soviets began planning a dam 
upstream from Nurek on the Vaksh River in 1976.  Construction of 
the Rogun Dam halted in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet 
Union, and resumed about three years ago when the Russian 
aluminum conglomerate RusAl financed preparatory construction 
phases.  The Government of Tajikistan publicly announced the 
termination of that agreement with RusAl in August of this year. 
 Media speculated that contract was cancelled because the 
Russian side wanted to build a 285 meter concrete dam rather 
than the 335 meter earth and rock dam that the Tajik side 
preferred.  The Russian side was interested in a dam which could 
power an aluminum smelter; the Tajiks wanted a dam that would 
help provide electricity to internal and external users.  There 
were also disagreements over the value of the Soviet era 
contribution to the project which would ultimately count in 
favor of the Tajik government's share of the ownership. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Ukmatsho Shirinbekov, chief engineer of the Rogun 
project since 2000, spent a few hours November 10 showing 
EmbOffs how much of the project had been finished and explaining 
what needed to be done.  Shirinbekov said RusAl had invested 
$3.5 million in the past three years for a few dozen four-story 
pre-fabricated dormitory buildings on the west side of the dam 
site.  (Note: RusAl claims to have invested over $50 million in 
the project, but this figure may include the Hyatt hotel and 
business center RusAl is constructing in Dushanbe.)  Shirinbekov 
pulled out detailed engineering diagrams of 90 kilometers of 
tunnels to transport earth and rock quarried from the valley 
walls and to house underground generating units.  He said 
another 30 kilometers of tunnels started in the 1990's were 
almost finished and two generators were "70% complete."  In 
August, the Tajik government announced it would spend $5.5 
million and possibly allocate an additional $50 million to 
further construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Shirinbekov repeated some statistics reported widely in 
the Tajik press about the proposed project: the dam will be 335 
meters tall and 1.5 kilometers long; the 17 billion cubic meter 
reservoir will take 7-12 years to fill once the 71 million cubic 
meter earth-and-rock fill is in place; in the fall and winter 
the water will pass over the dam at 120 cubic meters/second and 
at up to 2,000 cubic meters/second during the spring/summer 
runoff season; the power output of the six generators will be 
3,600 megawatts, each one producing more power than either of 
the planned Sangtuda dams, making Rogun the largest in 
Tajikistan.  (The Nurek dam generates 2,700 megawatts.)  With 
total current installed capacity in Tajikistan of a little over 
4,000 megawatts, he said that the power shortage in Tajikistan 
is 1,000 megawatts in winter time, so that the excess of power 
generated by Rogun would be available for export to Pakistan and 
Afghanistan.  Talco, the state-owned aluminum smelter, uses 
between 40-60% of Tajik electricity produced in the country. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In the dilapidated engineering headquarters, two of 
Shirinbekov's colleagues asked if EmbOffs were "technical 
experts or people with money" before showing decades-old 
engineering diagrams documenting the plans.  They said that in 
the Soviet era experts from Uzbekistan's National Academy of 
Sciences had calculated that when the reservoir reaches full 
capacity, it would provide enough water for Uzbekistan's 
irrigation needs.  When EmbOff asked if Uzbek President Karimov 
knew of this benefit, Shirinbekov said Karimov opposed the dam 
because he did not want a neighbor wealthier than Uzbekistan. 
 
DUSHANBE 00001651  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment. Although Shirinbekov was generous with 
statistics and plans that are already well publicized, he paused 
for several seconds before providing his own name and cell phone 
number when EmbOffs asked, in case questions arose later.  The 
willingness to cooperate is heartily extended when the 
tantalizing possibility exists that financing may follow.  The 
week before, Shirinbekov had given the same tour to a World Bank 
team in Tajikistan for the Central Asian Regional Economic 
Cooperation conference.  There has been much talk lately of an 
international consortium to fund the dam's construction, or of 
Iranian or Russian parties becoming strategic investors; nothing 
definite has appeared; so far all is just talk.  Uzbek 
resistance to the Rogun dam and other disagreements over water 
sharing permeate the two countries' relationship.  End Comment. 
 
¶7. (U) In parting, Shirinbekov apologized for not being able to 
offer tea, a Tajik custom and point of pride.  The town had no 
electricity to boil the water. 
JACOBSON