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R 301224Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
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INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2435
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0643
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 000876 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE - PEASE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SMIG PGOV PREL KHLS EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND FACING NEW IMMIGRATION AND INTEGRATION 
CHALLENGES 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) The surge in immigration to Ireland during the past 
decade has presented the Republic with economic opportunities 
as well as social challenges.  Foreign nationals now 
constitute upwards of 15 percent of Ireland's inhabitants, 
compared to 10 percent in the U.S.  Ireland has used the 
immigration of predominantly young, highly-educated workers 
to fuel its "Celtic Tiger" economic boom and most economists 
predict future economic growth will depend on continued 
inward migration.  Despite past success, government officials 
are facing new challenges that are forcing them to update 
immigration and integration policies amid strained public 
services, new immigrant-concentrated neighborhoods, and 
slowing economic conditions.  Critical of the faltering 
British and French models of multiculturalism and 
assimilation, Irish officials are keen to forge a third way 
which, if successful, could provide Europe with a new model 
for integration.  Ireland's ability to manage its 
ethnically-diverse population will be of key interest in 
Europe where in some countries immigration debates have take 
on an increasingly anxious tone and anti-immigrant political 
platforms seem to be gaining popularity.  End summary. 
 
YOUNG, SKILLED EASTERN EUROPEANS DOMINATE GROWING IMMIGRANT 
RANKS ... 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Ireland took in an estimated 87,000 immigrants between 
April 2005 and April 2006, according to Ireland's Central 
Statistics Office (CSO), representing the highest figure 
recorded since the CSO began tracking migration to Ireland in 
¶1987.  Nearly half--43 percent--came from the Central and 
Eastern European states that joined the EU in 2004, including 
24 percent from Poland alone.  (Note: Ireland was one of the 
few EU countries that opened its borders to workers from the 
new EU member states in 2004.  End note.)  Eighteen percent 
of immigrants came from the UK, 12 percent from the rest of 
the EU, and 27 percent from the rest of the world.  According 
to Ireland's 2006 census, 420,000 foreign nationals currently 
live in Ireland, or 10 percent of the total population. 
However, Conor Lenihan, Minister of State for Immigration and 
Integration, has stated publicly that he believes the census 
"seriously underestimated" the number of foreign nationals 
and the non-Irish population could be between 13 and 15 
percent of the population. 
 
¶3. (U) Ireland's immigrant pool is generally young and well 
educated.  More than half, or 54 percent, of foreign 
nationals are between the ages of 25 and 44, and slightly 
more than 30 percent have third-level degrees.  Research 
conducted by the Dublin-based Economic and Social Research 
Institute (ESRI) found that while the most recent immigrants 
from the Central and Eastern EU states have a lower level of 
educational attainment compared to immigrants who came to 
Ireland in the late 1990s, their educational level is still 
generally higher than that of the native Irish population. 
 
... BUT ECONOMIC BENEFITS FOR NEWEST ARRIVALS DECLINE 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (U) Numerous studies have shown that immigration has made 
Ireland richer by creating a virtuous cycle whereby increased 
economic prosperity combined with an open immigration policy 
has attracted foreign workers who in turn helped fuel the 
Celtic Tiger economic boom.  Since the mid-1990s the 
predominantly well-educated immigrant pool increased 
competition in the high-skill labor market which suppressed 
wage growth and increased Ireland's competitiveness. 
Immigration continues to be the key force behind Ireland's 
labor market with 72 percent of the annual increase in 
employment accounted for by non-Irish nationals, according to 
the CSO.  However, the shift to predominantly non-English 
speaking immigrants since 2000 has resulted in most of the 
recent immigrants taking jobs that are not commensurate with 
their education level and subsequently earning substantially 
less than similarly-qualified Irish workers.  Minister 
Lenihan told the IEA that at least 10 percent of immigrants 
are overqualified for the jobs they currently hold. 
 
¶5. (U) While lack of English language skills is the key 
reason for the skills mismatch, non-recognition of 
qualifications is another factor.  ESRI research shows that 
recent immigrants are less likely than previous migrants to 
be working in managerial, professional, or associate 
professional occupations.  Foreign nationals compose nearly 
 
DUBLIN 00000876  002 OF 004 
 
 
30 percent of all hotel and restaurant employees, 14 percent 
of workers in other production facilities, and 13 percent of 
construction workers, according to the Irish Government's 
most recent statistics.  The disparity between skills and 
employment has reduced the net benefit of immigration to the 
Irish economy and increased earnings inequality by driving 
down low-skill wage levels. 
 
ASYLUM SEEKERS DECLINING AMID TIGHTER POLICIES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (U) In contrast to the growing number of migrant workers, 
applications for asylum in Ireland fell in 2006 for the fifth 
straight year, according to the UN Commissioner for Refugees. 
 Ireland received just over 4,300 applications, or less than 
2 percent of all those seeking asylum in industrialized 
countries.  Asylum migrants make up only 4 percent of 
Ireland's immigrant pool. 
 
¶7. (U) At a public address at the Dublin-based Institute of 
European Affairs (IEA) in November, Minister Lenihan credited 
the decline to tighter government policies implemented after 
a surge in asylum seekers to Ireland in 1999 and 2000 when 
the Republic received 8,000 applicants annually.  Ireland 
accepts only 10 percent of asylum applicants and, according 
to Minister Lenihan, the government's policy is successful in 
countering the fraud that permeates asylum applications. 
 
¶8. (U) Recent government actions to further close loopholes 
indicate that the number of asylum seekers may continue to 
decline.  Since 2000 most political refugees in Ireland have 
come from Nigeria and Romania.  However, the Irish Government 
in January announced it would no longer permit citizens from 
other EU states to apply for refugee status.  The move was 
intended to prevent Romanian immigrants, whose intent is to 
find a job rather than escape persecution, from settling in 
Ireland and using the social services available to asylum 
seekers. 
 
 
IMMIGRATION IS KEY TO FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Jim Power, a leading Irish economist, told econoffs in 
November that all future economic growth in Ireland requires 
inward migration, as Ireland currently is fully employed. 
This view is supported by the latest OECD report which 
concluded that despite Ireland's population surge, there is 
still room to increase the labor supply.  Ireland's National 
Training and Employment Authority estimates that the Republic 
will need 500,000 more migrant workers during the next 
decade.  Minister Lenihan stated at the IEA in November that 
Ireland must look on its immigrants as a "huge opportunity," 
and work to move the current underemployed migrants to 
appropriately skilled areas in order to increase Ireland's 
productivity. 
 
¶10. (U) There is still much debate in Ireland concerning the 
impact of a slowing economy on immigrant employment, 
according to Power, who noted it is still too early to tell 
if they will be re-employed, unemployed, or leave.  Some 
Irish press reports have suggested that an economic downturn 
will produce increased competition for jobs, fueling tensions 
between native and immigrant populations.   However, the 
recent slowdown in Ireland's construction industry indicates 
that the EU labor market may be flexible enough to mitigate 
pressures if an economic slowdown is not EU-wide.  Irish 
government officials report that layoffs this year in 
Ireland's construction sector were not accompanied by a 
commensurate upturn in unemployment, suggesting that many of 
the immigrant workers in that sector from EU member states 
simply returned home to take advantage of Central Europe's 
burgeoning economies or emigrated elsewhere in the EU. 
(Comment:  However, emigration elsewhere in the EU is not an 
easy option for immigrants from non-EU nations, such as 
Nigeria, China, or the Philippines.  In the event of an 
economic recession and an increase in unemployment, such 
visible immigrants could the targets of social frustration. 
End comment.) 
 
¶11. (U) Irish officials suggest, instead, a key problem in 
the coming years will be retaining skilled workers.  Minister 
Lenihan reported that Ireland has already seen a number of 
the nurses recruited from the Philippines five years ago 
"poached" by Canada.  CSO data shows just 30 percent of 
Central European workers who immigrated since 2004 remain in 
Ireland. 
 
DUBLIN 00000876  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
A SHORT HISTORY OF SUCCESSFUL INTEGRATION 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) Foreign workers have largely been absorbed into Irish 
society with limited friction during the last decade. A 2006 
report from ESRI found that the incidence of racism in 
Ireland was lower than in other European countries and 
surveys of Irish public opinion indicate that, although there 
are some mixed feelings on immigration, there has been 
relatively little evidence of a negative attitude.  The 
success of integration to date is probably due to a 
combination of historical, ethnic and economic factors unique 
to Ireland.  Irish was the most common ethnicity of 
immigrants from 1995 to 2000, as many emigrants returned home 
to profit from the early days of Ireland's economic boom. 
Ireland's current immigrant pool still is predominantly 
European, educated, and Predominantly (50 percent) Catholic. 
Moreover, Irish emigrants' own experience with racism may 
have tempered local attitudes toward new arrivals.  A strong 
economy, consistently low unemployment, and high per capita 
wealth have also probably mitigated a backlash against new 
non-Irish workers.  Moreover, government policies allowing 
noncitizens to vote in local elections and join the police 
force has helped reduce the marginalization of immigrants. 
 
¶13.  (U) In response to the rapidly emerging issue of 
immigration, the Ministry of Immigration and Integration (led 
by  Minister of State Conor Lenihan) was newly created by 
Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Bertie Ahern following the May 
2007 election.  During a meeting with the Ambassador on 
October 9, Lenihan said that he expects to take about a year 
to clearly define the role of the new Ministry and get up 
fully up and running.  (Comment:  The Taoiseach is said to 
have more than a passing interest in immigration policy. 
Reportedly, 52 percent of his North Dublin constituency is 
comprised of immigrants.  End comment.) 
 
GROWING NUMBERS AND CHANGING ETHNICITY ADD CHALLENGES 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶14. (U) The growing proportion of immigrants relative to the 
native population and the changing and more diverse ethnic 
background of newcomers, however, will likely make 
integration more difficult in the future.  CSO data shows 
that in 2001 returning Irish still composed 44 percent of 
immigrants, but by 2006 they composed only 23 percent.  While 
the largest portion of non-Irish immigrants has come from the 
new EU member states, prior to 2004 ethnic Chinese comprised 
the largest non-Irish group of immigrants and remain a 
sizable number today (with estimates of up to 90,000). 
Moreover, there is evidence "ghettos" are emerging in and 
around Dublin dominated by immigrants.  Irish press reports 
indicate that in some urban districts the number of 
immigrants has risen 120 percent in the last year and in some 
primary schools in Dublin 50 percent of the students are from 
non-Irish backgrounds. 
 
¶15. (U) Minister Lenihan has called the emergence of 
immigrant-concentrated neighborhoods Ireland's biggest 
integration problem and characterized them as a by-product of 
the lack of affordable housing.  He said in November that he 
believed both Britain's multicultural and France's 
assimilation models of integration had failed, producing 
parallel societies, and Ireland's objective now is to learn 
from, and not repeat, their experiences.  He noted the first 
steps of his integration plan are to provide immigrants with 
English language skills and implement a better housing policy. 
 
WELFARE AND SOCIAL SERVICES UNDER PRESSURE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶16. (U) Ireland's infrastructure and social services have 
come under severe pressure due to the extraordinary growth in 
population and economic activity during the past decade.  The 
total population in Ireland increased 16 percent from 1997 to 
2006--the second highest rate of increase in the EU after 
Cyprus.  However, studies show that while immigration is 
straining Ireland's already stressed services, it is not the 
sole source of the problem.  A report by ESRI last year found 
that immigrant workers were only half as likely to avail of 
social welfare services as native Irish workers, with the 
demographic composition of immigrants tempering the amount of 
services required.  According to the CSO, just 10 percent of 
immigrants entering Ireland are school age children under the 
age of 15 and just one percent are 65 or older. 
 
 
DUBLIN 00000876  004 OF 004 
 
 
¶17. (U) The Government has undertaken measures to mitigate 
the impact of immigration on services.  Prior to the 
accession of the EU states in 2004, Ireland introduced 
restrictions to prevent "welfare tourism," requiring 
immigrants to be habitually resident to receive most forms of 
social assistance.  (Comment: Anecdotal evidence indicates 
that, because of cheap airfares, some foreign born welfare 
recipients live in other European countries and fly into 
Ireland each month to collect their welfare checks.  End 
comment.) 
 
GOVERNMENT POLICIES IMPROVING, BUT MORE CHANGES NEEDED 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶18. (U) Irish officials are rapidly moving to update 
legislation to keep pace with immigration.  An EU-wide study 
on integration issued by Brussels this year criticized the 
Republic's policies as having evolved in a "piecemeal and 
economically-driven" fashion and placed Ireland the bottom of 
its league table for the provision of long-term residence 
rights to migrant workers.  Currently, migrant workers' 
security to live in Ireland is based entirely on employment 
(putting them, critics say, at the mercy of their employers). 
 A proposed immigration bill that is before the Parliament, 
if passed, will be Ireland's first consolidated piece of 
legislation on immigration and give permanent residency to 
migrants. 
 
¶19.  (U) The Government this year also replaced a complex 
work permits regime with a simpler one centered around a 
"green card." Unlike the U.S. green card, it is simply a 
two-year renewable work permit that covers all occupations 
that offer an annual salary of 60,000 euros (USD 88,500) or 
more and some "strategically important" occupations in the 
30,000 euros (USD 44,250) to 59,000 euros (USD 87,000) 
bracket where shortages exist, such as health care, 
construction, and financial services. 
 
¶20. (U) Ireland's "green card" is designed to be responsive 
to filling high-skill shortages as they emerge; however, Jim 
Power told econoffs that he believes it does not go far 
enough and a Canadian or Australian-style points system is 
needed.  Shortcomings of the program include prohibitive 
application fees, bureaucratic delays, and no clear path to 
citizenship.  Irish press reports say that it is difficult 
for even highly-qualified foreign students to remain in 
Ireland to work and, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers 
report published earlier this year, companies in Ireland 
report experiencing the most difficulty in the EU recruiting 
foreigners to senior management and professional positions. 
 
¶21. (U) Minister Lenihan said in November that he advocates a 
European-led approach to immigration. He suggested that 
without a common approach there will continue to be unnatural 
flows of migrants within the EU due to EU countries' 
disparate policies, social provisions, and economic 
performance. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶22. (SBU) Ireland's immigration experience is unique as it 
has occurred against a backdrop of unprecedented economic 
prosperity.  However, the Republic's enviable position could 
be altered if the Government does not adequately control the 
flow, settlement, and integration of migrants, and improve 
public services.  Already there are worrying signs that 
Ireland has been slow in developing appropriate policies to 
address long-term challenges.  Problems arising from unequal 
access to education and housing in parts of fast-growing 
northwest Dublin could worsen if not stemmed, contributing to 
the emergence of tensions between immigrants and natives seen 
elsewhere in Europe and leading to an "unvirtuous cycle," 
whereby Ireland ceases to attract the highly skilled 
immigrants needed to sustain its economic prosperity. 
However, if Ireland succeeds in integrating its increasingly 
ethnically-diverse immigrant population while reaping the 
economic benefits of a growing labor pool, the Republic's 
policies could serve as a prototype for other EU countries 
struggling to attract workers while maintaining social 
cohesion. 
 
FOLEY