VZCZCXRO6071
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0662/01 3060634
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020634Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1318
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2842
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0862
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 5132
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1366
RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000662 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IN
SUBJECT:  BJP CLAIMS A NEW MAJORITY IN BANGALORE 
 
REF: A) CHENNAI 629, B) CHENNAI 620 C) CHENNAI 611 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  A newly reformed BJP-JD(S) coalition now claims 
to have a majority in the South Indian state of Karnataka's 
legislature.  It has demanded that the governor re-activate the 
state's legislative assembly and ask the coalition to form a 
government.  The Congress-appointed governor has been administering 
the state since the declaration of "President's Rule" following the 
collapse of the previous BJP-JD(S) coalition on October 8 (reftels). 
 He appears in no hurry to relinquish control and apparently has no 
legal requirement to heed the new coalition's demands.  The 
BJP-JD(S) will attempt to use public pressure to convince the 
governor.  The Congress Party may well allow the new coalition to 
rule Karnataka again, fully expecting that the two parties will soon 
be at each other's throats again, allowing Congress to benefit from 
early elections that will follow another government collapse.  End 
summary. 
 
A majority parade for the governor 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) A newly reconstituted BJP-JD(S) coalition paraded 129 members 
of Karnataka's legislature in front of Governor Rameshwar Thakur's 
office on October 29 to demonstrate that it has more than the 113 
votes necessary to create a majority.  The new coalition elected BJP 
member B.S. Yeddyurappa, who served as Deputy Chief Minister in the 
BJP-JD(S) coalition that collapsed in early October, as its leader. 
If he becomes Chief Minister (CM), it would be the first time that 
the BJP has held the top job in any state in South India.  (The new 
coalition chief was known as Yeddiyurappa until October 11, when he 
reportedly changed the spelling of his name on the advice of 
astrologers.) 
 
Dissent in the JD(S) ranks 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Not all JD(S) members are happy with the new arrangement. 
Dissident JD(S) legislator M.P. Prakash, flew to New Delhi the 
previous week to discuss with Congress leaders a possible 
JD(S)-Congress coalition.  A senior Congress state leader told us 
that a deal to make Prakash the new Chief Minister (CM) with 
Congress's support was "more or less agreed upon" when it was spiked 
by JD(S) former CM Kumaraswamy.  According to this source, 
Kumaraswamy convinced party chief Deve Gowda (conveniently, 
Kumaraswamy's father) to re-ally with the BJP to ensure that a 
member of Deve Gowda's immediate family (another son is also a 
prominent politician) remains near the CM's post in Karnataka. 
Prakash's deal, this Congress leader told us, would have left Deve 
Gowda and his progeny out in the cold. 
 
¶4. (U) Prakash claimed to have enough support from his fellow 
Lingayat caste members within the JD(S) to prevent the new BJP-JD(S) 
coalition from creating a majority, but only three JD(S) members 
joined Prakash in avoiding the show of support in front of the 
governor's office.  Prakash reportedly told the governor that the 
new BJP-JD(S) tie-up was "illegal and unethical," claiming that Deve 
Gowda had joined back with the BJP without consulting the party's 
membership. 
 
Governor in the driver's seat 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The governor apparently has no legal requirement to heed 
the new coalition's demands.  The BJP's point man on Karnataka told 
us that "everything now rests in the hands of the governor," saying 
that even though the BJP and JD(S) may claim to have a majority, the 
governor is in possession of a letter from the BJP, written as the 
former government collapsed, that calls for early elections.  He 
admitted that the governor could make himself look foolish if he 
allowed the parties to try again to form a government and they 
failed.  He also told us that the decision about whether or not to 
allow the BJP to form a new coalition would be made by Congress 
leaders in New Delhi.  He speculated that Sonia Gandhi may make the 
decision soon after her return from China on October 30. 
 
Congress may want a BJP-JD(S) coalition 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The senior Congress state leader told us that Congress is 
leaning towards allowing the BJP and JD(S) to take the reins of 
power again.  He said that Congress expects that their 
re-constituted alliance will soon founder, discrediting both parties 
completely and forcing an election that Congress will win. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
CHENNAI 00000662  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The short-term outlook for the BJP and JD(S) forming a 
coalition looks good, but it's not a sure thing.  Although he may 
have no legal obligation to end President's Rule, it would be 
awkward for the governor to ignore the apparent majority now 
mustered by the two parties.  If Congress decides to keep the 
governor in charge, there's apparently little the BJP can do beyond 
issuing public rebukes.  The Congress Party will, however, pay a 
political price for what will be seen as undermining the democratic 
process if it keeps the legislature suspended under President's Rule 
despite the coalition proving it has a clear majority.  Such a 
decision by the party could also be challenged in the courts.  There 
are precedents where courts have censured governors and the Federal 
Government for preventing a coalition formation from proving its 
majority on the floor of the legislature. 
 
KAPLAN