VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2265/01 3330747
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290747Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9789
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; ANNAPOLIS CONFERENCE; VENEZUELAN 
REFERENDUM; WAR ON DRUGS; 11/27/07 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's key international stories deal with expectations for the 
Middle East Peace conference in Annapolis; the Venezuelan referendum 
on the country's constitutional amendment; and a critical view on 
the war on drugs. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "Chavez falling from favor" 
 
Paul Scheltus, on special assignment in Caracas for liberal, 
English-language "Buenos Aires Herald," writes (11/27) "... If 
approved, the new constitution would turn (Venezuela) into a 
centralized socialist state and allow the president to be re-elected 
indefinitely. That's causing considerable unease, even with those 
loyal to the former paratrooper. 
 
"The opposition - a lackluster bunch of little consequence in recent 
years - seems finally to have found a message that resonates with a 
large part of the electorate. The 'no' vote is gaining ground, 
thanks mainly to the leading role played by students. Opinion polls 
quoted by opposition media put those that reject the changes at 
around 45 percent and those in favor at between 30 and 40 percent. 
The government pollsters still insist that 'yes' will beat 'no' by 
58 to 42 percent. Abstention here is a major threat for the 
opposition... 
 
"Fair enough, but past experience should have taught those opposed 
to Chavez that ignoring him is a dead-end road." 
 
- "Skepticism over a Middle East peace summit" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (11/27) "On the eve of the Middle East Peace conference 
that will be held in Annapolis today, US President George W. Bush, 
Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas 
showed optimistic. However, last night, Palestinian negotiator Ahmad 
Qorei and Israeli FM Tzipi Livni had not reached a deal on a final 
communiqu and skepticism prevailed among the experts consulted by 
'Clarin.' 
 
"Phyllis Bennis, author of 'Understanding the Palestinian-Israeli 
conflict,' who works for the Institute for Political Studies, a 
progressive NGO, said: 'The real objective of the Annapolis 
conference is not doing justice with the Palestinian claims or 
preserving Israel's security. What the Bush administration wants is 
the support from Arab countries to isolate Iran while improving the 
US image in the region after Condoleezza Rice supported and 
encouraged Israel's attack against Lebanon.' 
 
"On the other extreme of the political spectrum, former US 
ambassador to the UN, neo-conservative John Bolton agreed: 'The 
conference has been organized to improve the legacy of the Bush 
administration.' Everything indicates that 'it is doomed to failure, 
regardless of the standards you use to analyze the outcome.' 
 
"... Nonetheless, some experts believe that even when a deal is 
reached, it will hardly be implemented. Both Bush and Olmert and 
Abbas have less than 30 percent of support. However, this is not 
all. Hamas was not invited because the US Department of State 
considers it a terrorist group. However, Fatah's moderates, led by 
Abbas, only control the West Bank. 
 
"In spite of the difficulties, Rice is convinced that at least some 
progress will be made and that this will be enough to give new 
momentum to the peace process. The truth is that if the conference 
fails, the effort made could have an opposed effect. Fareed 
Zakarias, author of 'The future of freedom,' said: 'These countries 
will hardly agreed to attend again a conference like this one.'" 
 
- "The summit will start today with some doubts" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (11/27) "Merged in a sea of 
doubts about its outcome, the Middle East international summit will 
start today in the port city of Annapolis... It has a very 
complicated objective - come to terms on a permanent peace deal or 
at least on an agenda that will lead to a permanent truce. 
 
"The USG, and particularly US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, 
pleaded for months in favor of the summit although she stressed her 
'moderate optimism' about what may happen in the next 48 hours in 
order to keep reasonable expectations. 
 
"... The arrival of a delegation from Syria, one of the most 
visceral enemies of Israel, reinforced the serious nature of the 
 
summit... 
 
"However, the challenge is so huge that the communiqu containing a 
tentative agenda was delayed due to the parties' confronting ideas. 
 
"The chore of the dispute is how to make concrete the 'solution of 
the two States' premise to honor the 'road map' that Israelis and 
Palestinians agreed upon in 2003. 
 
"However, this dispute has multiple fronts. Some of them include 
where to delineate the borders of the Palestinian State, how to 
solve the refugees problem, what the future of Jerusalem will be, 
how to solve the remaining Israeli settlements and Israel's return 
(or not) of the Golan Heights to Syria..." 
 
- "Who wins the war on drugs" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed story by Juan Gabriel 
Tokatlian, professor of International Relations at Universidad de 
San Andres, who opines (11/27) "... If one reviews the drug 
phenomenon from an organizational angle, the conclusion is alarming. 
The strategies implemented to dismantle mafia conglomerates have 
created more sophisticated, influential and virulent criminal 
organizations. Transnational criminality is no longer an emerging 
class but has become a dominant class in many cases. Some years ago, 
the narco-trafficking issue was a criminological fact. Today, it is 
a sociological issue... 
 
"If one analyzes the militarization of the struggle against drugs 
(the participation of Armed Forces in basically police tasks), the 
result has been a failure. The effect of the military participation 
in anti-drug actions impacted negatively on the relations between 
civilians and the military, human rights and the degree of 
corruption. The direct and active role played by the armed forces in 
eradication, interdiction and chase did not imply a promising 
advance towards eradicating or at least reducing the drug 
problem... 
 
"However, in this process, armed forces, as a corporation, have 
become inclined to the 'war on drugs,' because they receive domestic 
and foreign financial resources, gain domestic influence and US 
support. 
 
"... World information reveals that banning drugs has been a 
failure, although nothing seems to put a brake on the banning 
crusade... 
 
"In Argentina there are many sectors that are eager to join the 'war 
on drugs.'... What the country needs is to tackle and solve the 
structural problems that allow the drug business to prosper and 
expand. The role of the State in this regard is essential. 
Meanwhile, the society should get more and better information on the 
issue and attempt to create domestic and international coalitions 
that will help to rethink the costly and unproductive ongoing 
policies." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE