VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #3351/01 3201558
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161558Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6685
INFO RUCNMEN/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 8116

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN GOVERNMENT FORMATION - ADRIFT, BUT STILL 
AFLOAT 
 
REF:  Brussels 3308 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Yves Leterme's attempt to form a new 
Belgian government is still alive, but there seems little 
chance that it will succeed anytime soon.  A recent 
series of inter-communal flaps, all centered around the 
bilingual communes surrounding Brussels, have brought a 
pause to Leterme's efforts.  Some leaders, including FM 
De Gucht and Finance Minister Reynders are working to 
recreate an atmosphere in which talks can resume.  In the 
meantime, it appears that some leaders are at least 
talking informally. End summary 
 
¶2. (U) Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V) leader Yves 
Leterme?s attempt to form Belgium's next federal 
government is still alive, but it remains as far from 
success today as it was when he began the effort, 160 
days (and counting) ago.  Leterme and his "orange 
(Christian Democrat) - blue (Liberal)" partners from the 
Flemish and francophone parts of the country have reached 
broad agreement on most important issues save one, the 
vexing question of institutional reform.  This subject is 
generally understood to mean re-dividing responsibilities 
between federal, regional, and communal governments. 
There is a good reason why it has poisoned the government 
formation process - too many politicians on both sides of 
the language divide have made promises on institutional 
reform that they cannot redeem without near complete 
surrender by the other side.  Until Leterme and his 
colleagues in the other coalition parties find a way to 
eat their many ill-judged and provocative words of the 
past five months, the formation process cannot move into 
an end game phase. 
 
¶3. (U) The prospects for any, let alone rapid, movement 
during the last week of November appears to slim, most 
press commentators and our political contacts agree. 
Their pessimism now stands in sharp contrast to their 
hopeful attitude following a November 7 vote by a 
Parliamentary committee to redistrict the Brussels-Halle- 
Vilvoorde (BHV).  The committee vote, if it actually 
becomes a law, would strip the vote of francophones 
living in the periphery of Brussels to cast their federal 
ballots for francophone parties competing in the Brussels 
constituency.  The francophone parties were aghast that 
the Flemish had used their numerical advantage to push 
through a measure opposed so strongly by French speakers. 
Although anathema to the francophone parties (which had 
walked out of the committee before the vote), francophone 
Christian Democratic and Liberal leaders pointedly made 
clear they were still willing to talk to Leterme about 
forming the next government.  Leterme himself had seemed 
to hint at a willingness to back away from demands for 
far-reaching changes in the balance between the regional 
and federal government, suggesting that he would settle 
for alterations requiring less than the two-thirds 
majority needed to effect a constitutional change. 
 
¶4. (U) The optimism of November 7 disappeared for three 
reasons.  The first reason involved pressure from 
backbenchers in Leterme's party, and from his "cartel" 
allies in the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), a Flemish 
nationalist group.  This convinced CD&V leaders to issue 
statement on November 9 indicating that the party would 
continue to seek "meaningful" institutional reform. 
Francophone leaders considered this as meaning that 
Leterme was more interested in protecting his position in 
the 2009 regional elections than in striking a deal with 
them in November 2007.  The second and third reasons 
concerned the BHV dispute.  Flemish leaders universally 
rejected a francophone appeal for a conciliatory gesture 
following the committee vote on BHV, arguing that they 
were simply carrying out a judicial order and thus had 
done nothing requiring any apology.  Citing legal 
grounds, the Flemish regional government infuriated 
francophones further by refusing to approve the selection 
of francophone mayors in three of the communes bordering 
Brussels.  Francophones thought this action to be a "slap 
in the face" and disproportionate to the admitted 
infractions committed by the three mayors, who had sent 
francophone residents an official announcement of the 
federal and communal elections in French rather than 
Dutch, as required by Flemish law. 
 
¶5. (U) Several other developments have contributed to the 
gloomy atmosphere of the last week.  King Albert II's 
attempt to subsume the current debate on constitutional 
change with a more long-term effort - the so-called 
"Committee of Wise Men" - has yet to get under way, not 
 
least because the Socialist and Green opposition parties 
have refused to "rescue" Leterme from his own mistakes 
during the formation process.  The scattered catcalls 
from Flemish nationalist louts and petty vandalism that 
occurred in front of the cathedral in Brussels during a 
November 15 Te Deum held to celebrate the Royal Family's 
rule (with most members of the Royal family inside) made 
clear that the Sovereign is far from being a unifying 
figure.  Most telling, however, has been the continued 
absence of any formal discussions between the parties 
since the November 7 vote in Parliament.  There were no 
signs of any talks getting underway over the next few 
days. 
 
¶6. (SBU) There are at least a few hints of possible 
progress.  Senior officials in the francophone and 
Flemish Liberal parties have confirmed press reports of 
informal contacts between the potential coalition party 
presidents.  They reportedly have attempted to sketch out 
a possible format and timetable for relatively non- 
controversial constitutional changes.  Some leaders on 
both sides of the language divide also have attempted, 
albeit belatedly, to inject an element of common sense 
into the debate.  FM Karel De Gucht, for example, 
published a long op-ed piece condemning the Flemish for 
abusing their numerical superiority while castigating 
francophones for unreasonably refusing even to talk about 
Flemish interest in constitutional changes.  Similarly, 
the prominent francophone newspaper Le Soir has sponsored 
a public forum where members of the two language groups 
have been able to hear the other side's opinions, 
unfiltered by journalistic commentators.  It remains to 
be seen if these positive steps will lead anywhere 
useful. 
 
¶7. (U) Finance Minister Reynders, a francophone Liberal, 
has worked to strengthen his position as leader of his 
community by convening the other francophone party 
presidents to meetings at his ministerial office or 
Liberal party headquarters.  Reynders also has tried to 
make clear to the Flemings that the francophones are 
deeply interested not so much in a receiving a good will 
gesture as an indication of their willingness to remain 
part of a united Belgium, particularly one where the 
majority community cannot impose actions on the minority. 
In that connection, Reynders said in a recent interview 
that he could see a need for institutional reforms, but 
only if done in a fair and balanced manner.  He 
envisioned such a process taking place over several years 
under the leadership of elder statesmen. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Against all the evidence to the 
contrary, Leterme may still succeed eventually in 
delivering a new government for lack of any alternative 
path out of the crisis.  It will be, as one local 
journalist put it, "an ugly baby," but odds are that it 
will eventually come into being.  End comment. 
BUSH