VZCZCXRO3223
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1532/01 3131628
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091628Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1753
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001532 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KV SR
SUBJECT: Serbia: Vojislav Seselj Goes on Trial in The Hague while 
SAA Initialed in Brussels 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Notorious Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav 
Seselj's November 7 war crimes trial in The Hague attracted only 
moderate media attention in Belgrade and no public pronouncements or 
protests.  With the concomitant press of Serbia's initialing of a 
Stability and Association Agreement Seselj popularity's at least 
this week has been neutralized, as Serbia focuses on a European 
future, but is reminded of its bloody past.  End Summary 
 
Moderate Media Coverage of Proceedings 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Media interest in the case was muted.  The influential 
pro-government newspaper "Politika" on November 8 dedicated a page 
to the trial, reporting the prosecution's opening remarks, trial's 
history and Seselj's past inflammatory statements.  Most other 
dailies documented the opening remarks without analysis or 
commentary.  The government RTS television station aired the 
pre-trial hearing, November 6, drawing 21% of the viewing audience, 
but the broadcast of the first day of the trial commanded only a 
13.61% audience share, with 382,130 viewers.  On November 8, trial 
coverage airing Seselj's opening statements attracted 34.01% of the 
viewing audience. 
 
Radicals Unlikely to Gain in the Polls 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Although the popular wisdom argues that the trial of 
Slobodan Milosovic, from 2002-2006,at first boosted his popularity, 
this time around local analysts do not expect the Radical Party 
(SRS) to profit from renewed scrutiny of Seselj's crimes. 
Independent journalist Dejan Anastasijevic told emboff that 
"speculation that the trial will boost Radical's popularity is 
overrated.  Instead, the trial will bring back ugly memories that 
even SRS supporters would like to forget," Anastasijevic said. 
Presenting a different view, Sonja Biserko of Serbia's Helsinki 
Committee told emboff that, with Seselj the link between the state 
and the paramilitary forces, the importance of the trial is to 
expose the criminality underlying the Yugoslav wars. 
 
Initialing the SAA:  Moving Towards Europe 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) Coinciding with the trial, Serbia's initialing of its 
Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European 
Commission on November 7, played positively in Belgrade.  The 
initialing became possible only after The Hague's Chief Prosecutor 
Carla Del Ponte confirmed Serbia's continued cooperation with the 
Tribunal.  Most acknowledged that the event brought Serbia one step 
closer to EU membership, while recognizing that Serbia must still 
fully comply with ICTY. 
 
¶5.  (U) The governing coalition applauded the initialing of the SAA 
and presented the EC a new action plan towards full EU integration. 
The action plan calls for Serbia to sign the SAA by the end of 
January 2008, to be on the EU's white Schengen list and to be an EU 
candidate country, both by the end of 2008.  Prime Minister Vojislav 
Kostunica said on November 6 he looked forward to a final signing as 
soon as possible, noting that the SAA would lead to new investments 
and a "better standard (of living) for Serbia's citizens." 
President Boris Tadic said on November 7 the initialing proved 
Serbia could become a full member of the EU, and hoped the SAA could 
be signed in the next couple of weeks, once Serbia achieved full 
cooperation with The Hague.  .Mladan Dinkic, leader of the G-17 Plus 
said on November 6 he hoped Serbia would have EU candidate status by 
the end of 2008.  Opposition was more cynical, saying Serbia's EU 
future was not yet guaranteed.  SRS MP, Zoran Krasic (and lawyer to 
Seselj), on November 7 criticized the public optimism surrounding 
the SAA, saying that the initialing was insignificant and guaranteed 
Serbia nothing. 
 
Media Reaction: Mostly Positive, but Realistic 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6.  (U) Local media extensively covered the initialing of the SAA. 
While positive on the initialing, the media was also astutely aware 
that it was primarily symbolic. Pro-government paper "Politika" on 
November 8 called the initialing Serbia's entryway into Europe. 
"Politika" also carried an interview with Russian Ambassador to 
Serbia Alexander Alekseyev, who said Russia supported the SAA 
process and congratulated Serbia on the initialing.  Only tabloid 
"Kurir's" negative coverage stood out.  Under the November 8 
headline "Exchange for Kosovo?"  Kurir speculated that the EU's 
sudden goodwill in moving the SAA process along could be 
compensation for impending loss of Kosovo 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
BELGRADE 00001532  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Seselj's trial began at an auspicious moment for Serbia. 
As Serbia moves closer to European integration via the SAA process, 
providing the public with a healthy dose of the truth will assist 
the country, or at least provide an opportunity for the country, to 
face the consequences of its past.  Looking towards the future, the 
initialing of the SAA also comes at a particularly good time for 
Serbia's democratic forces who can claim this as a major 
accomplishment and point towards Serbia's now clearer path to the 
EU, once Serbia fulfills its commitments to The Hague.  End comment. 
 
 
 
MUNTER