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DE RUEHBW #1504/01 3091928
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051928Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1724
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1394

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001504 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT:  Serbia: Election Announcement to Follow Troika Report on 
Kosovo; Vote in 2008 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The leaders of Serbia's governing coalition agreed on 
November 3 to call presidential elections, only after December 10. 
The timing defers the call for elections until after delivery of the 
Troika's report to the UNSYG on the conclusion of Kosovo status 
negotiations and sets the first round of elections no earlier than 
January 10.  The date of elections is still up in the air, and 
politicians and media speculate about a January 13 or 20 first 
round.  The agreement allows the possibility of further delay; 
conditioning announcement of elections on the absence of a threat to 
Serbia's territorial integrity.  The announcement temporarily 
overcomes an impasse on election timing that pitted the president 
and prime minister head-to-head and had brought parliament to a 
standstill.  Political leaders confided both relief that the 
compromise agreement will allow parliament to satisfy all 
constitutional election requirements and concern about the need to 
fix dates lest Kosovo headlines annul the deal.  End summary. 
 
Coalition Agrees to Delay 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) President Tadic, Prime Minister Kostunica, and Economic 
Minister Mladjan Dinkic, representing the three parties constituting 
Serbia's ruling coalition, on November 3 announced their agreement 
to call elections only after December 10.  The government also 
announced that it would introduce in parliament by November 8 the 
drafts of the legally mandated legislation that must be in place 
before the speaker calls elections. 
 
Media Claims Victory for Both Sides 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Media response has been varied.  Independent daily "Blic" 
ran a headline claiming that "Kostunica gave in" and tabloid "Kurir" 
similarly credited the win to Tadic.  Pro-government daily "Novosti" 
speculated that the agreement cemented coalition relations and 
established the conditions for cooperation. 
 
¶4.  (U) Media reports highlighted that the announcement of the 
parties left much indeterminate, including what the parties took in 
trade for the compromise and even whether elections will go forward. 
 The press noted that, in announcing the agreement, Dinkic confirmed 
his G-17 Party's support for Tadic's candidacy and Kostunica's 
Democratic Party of Serbia explicitly reserved any endorsement.  Nor 
did the parties announce whether local and provincial elections 
would coincide with presidential, although the speculation is that 
they will not.  Most significantly, the political leaders' agreement 
stipulates as a precondition for calling elections that there be no 
immediate threat to Serbia's territorial integrity.  Public opinion 
polls indicate that Tadic has a strong lead and would win, 54% to 
46%, in a runoff against Radical Party candidate Tomislav Nikolic. 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) G-17 Party leader Dinkic, in a meeting with the Ambassador 
just prior to the announcement of the agreement, confirmed that he 
had met with President Tadic, the night of November 2 and that Tadic 
had confirmed that a deal with Kostunica was in place.  Dinkic, 
whose party firmly supports Tadic in the presidential race, seemed 
relaxed, even relieved.  He said that he wanted to see elections 
locked in before the possible uncertainty of the post-December 10 
period.  Dinkic said he believed the dates would be announced soon, 
and expected the first round of the election to be January 20, with 
a February 3 runoff. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Parliament Speaker Dulic, with considerable relief told 
poloff on November 3 that the compromise had averted a government 
crisis.  The test of the agreement, he said, would come on November 
5 in parliament when he would try to move pending legislation to a 
vote in what had become a paralyzed legislature.  The speaker 
expected to call the first round of elections for January 13; the 
second round on January 27, but acknowledged that these dates could 
change.  Dulic expressed relief, as well, that the new timetable 
would allow parliament to pass all necessary legislation and allow 
him to announce election prior to year's end, avoiding a potential 
conflict between constitutional requirements. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) With Kosovo negotiations coming to an end, a loophole that 
allows delay of Serbia's presidential elections in the presence of a 
threat to Serbia's territorial integrity is large enough to march an 
elephant (or entire province) through.  The agreement may have 
averted an immediate government crisis, but it sets the stage for a 
renewed debate in December.  As Kosovo status decisions steal the 
spotlight, expect further election delays, which, without changing 
 
BELGRADE 00001504  002 OF 002 
 
 
the likely outcome of a Tadic second-round win, leave the prime 
minister controlling the political agenda.  End Comment.