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OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #5914/01 3270950
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 230950Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0798
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0090
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 5208
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 7998
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 2001
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 3953
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005914 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTION ROUNDUP: DISQUALIFICATIONS AND 
PREDICTIONS 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 5881 (OATHS AND INSULTS) 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 5749 (ELECTION PLAYBILL) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 5740 (CANDIDATE REGISTRATION) 
     ¶D. BANGKOK 5667 (CAMPAIGN RULES EASED) 
     ¶E. BANGKOK 5578 (THAI ELECTION SEASON) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Citing duplicate party registrations and other 
procedural ineligibilities, the Election Commission of 
Thailand (ECT) on November 21 disqualified 37 party list 
candidates from 16 political parties from competing in the 
December 23 elections.  The ECT threatened legal penalties 
against disqualified candidates who knowingly violated 
election rules, while a few candidates vowed to appeal the 
ECT decision to the Supreme Court.  An Administrative Court 
judge opined that a November 16 ECT decision restricting the 
campaign activities of 111 former executives of the dissolved 
Thai Rak Thai party had no legal force.  Recent opinion polls 
of questionable reliability mostly predict a strong showing 
for the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP).  End summary. 
 
CANDIDATES DISQUALIFIED 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On November 21, the Election Commission of Thailand 
(ECT) announced it had disqualified 37 candidates from 16 
political parties who were competing for 80 party list seats 
in the 480 seat parliament.  News reports indicated that the 
ECT disqualified 33 candidates for being simultaneously 
registered with multiple parties, while other candidates had 
allegedly violated election laws by registering to compete 
for both party list and constituency seats in the December 23 
elections.  An additional candidate was allegedly not legally 
resident in the district in which he had registered.  The ECT 
said disqualified candidates had seven days to appeal the 
ruling to the Supreme Court. 
 
¶3. (U) The ECT ruling affected the Ruam Jai Thai Chart 
Pattana Party the most, as six of its candidates were 
disqualified.  The ECT disqualified three candidates from the 
Matchima Thippatai Party and two candidates from the For the 
Motherland Party, including one of the party's deputy 
leaders.  The ECT also disqualified one candidate each from 
the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) and the Pracharaj 
Party.  The remaining disqualified candidates belonged to 
lesser-known parties.  Several of the disqualified candidates 
publicly indicated bureaucratic errors led to their 
disqualification, which they promised to appeal.  On November 
20, an ECT official said disqualified candidates who 
knowingly violated election laws could face 10 years 
imprisonment, fines of up to 200,000 baht ($6,000), and a 
10-year revocation of voting rights. 
 
FALLOUT CONTINUES FROM ECT POLITICAL BAN 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Following the November 16 ECT ""advisory"" ruling 
prohibiting the 111 executive members of the dissolved Thai 
Rak Thai (TRT) party from participating in the December 23 
election campaign (reftel A), many of the ""banned"" TRT 
executives indicated they would challenge the ECT decision in 
Thailand's Supreme Administrative Court.  On November 20, 
Akkarathorn Chularat, the president of the Supreme 
Administrative Court reportedly commented to the media that 
the ECT ruling was not legally enforceable as he did not 
consider the ruling an official administrative order. 
Akkarathorn added that disputes arising from the ECT 
restrictions should be settled in court.  On November 22, 
some banned politicians lodged a complaint with the regional 
representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for 
Human Rights alleging the ECT order violated their rights to 
freedom of expression. 
 
OPINION POLLS PREDICT PPP PLURALITY, VOTE-BUYING 
--------------------------------------------- --- 

¶5. (SBU) During the past several weeks, the media have 
reported on a slew of pre-election opinion polls.  The polls 
have come from a variety of sources, including academic 
institutions, political party-funded internal polling, and 
(allegedly) the military.  The poll results generally confirm 
the commonly held view that the PPP will win the most seats 
in the parliament and that vote-buying is expected ahead of 
the elections.  (Comment:  Relatively few polling 
institutions in Thailand are considered to adhere to the 
highest standards of professionalism, and all poll statistics 
should be considered with skepticism.  End comment.) 
 
¶6. (U) The following are noteworthy results from recent polls 
(Note: 240 seats are needed to form a government in the 
480-seat parliament.  See reftel B for post's unscientific 
seat projections.  End note): 
 
-- A Bangkok University poll of 1,507 people in 16 provinces 
(out of a total of 76) conducted November 16 - 19 predicts a 
92% turnout on election day.  46% want Democrat Party leader 
Abhisit Vejjajiva to be Prime Minister while 23% support PPP 
leader Samak Sundaravej.  Only 37% of respondents believed 
the elections would be free and fair. 
 
-- A nationwide Suan Dusit Rajabhat University poll (sample 
size unknown) conducted November 1 - 10 predicts the PPP will 
win 180 seats compared to the Democrat Party's 160 in the new 
parliament.  Only 3% believe the government will be 
successful in eradicating vote buying ahead of the election. 
 
-- A poll allegedly sponsored by the Thai Army's Internal 
Security Operations Command (ISOC) predicted that the PPP 
would win up to 280 seats in the parliament while the 
Democrat Party would win 125 seats.  On November 16, an ISOC 
spokesperson insisted the leaked figures were from internal 
Army projections rather than scientific polling. 
 
-- A Ramkhamhaeng University poll of 1,464 Bangkok residents 
conducted on November 8 showed strong support for the 
Democrat party among capital dwellers, with 52% supporting 
the party and 14% planning to vote for rival PPP. 71% 
indicated they intended to vote on election day. 
 
-- Press reports on November 22 indicated an internal PPP 
poll predicted the party would win 165 of the 400 
constituency seats in the new parliament.  The press reported 
that a November ""For the Motherland Party"" internal poll 
predicted the party would win 80 seats. 
 
-- An ABAC/Morality Center poll of the Bangkok metropolitan 
area conducted from September 20-26 concluded that 53% of 
respondents would support a corrupt government if ""that 
government would make them happy."" 
 
ENTWISTLE