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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 ASHGABAT 001192 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EPET MARR PGOV PREL TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE ADJUTANT GENERAL, NEVADA 
NATIONAL GUARD VISIT TO TURKMENISTAN, 6-12 NOVEMBER 2007 (U) 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard Hoagland for reasons 
1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
¶1.  Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public internet. 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Your visit to Turkmenistan follows the celebration 
on October 27th of Turkmenistan's 16th Anniversary of its 
independence.  This visit helps continue the ongoing, 
bilateral dialogue on security issues, while reinforcing the 
progress made by the United States since December 2006 in 
"turning a new page" in its overall relationship with 
Turkmenistan.  Although the new president, Gurbanguly 
Berdimuhamedov, is making significant changes in some 
sectors, it is important to realize the country is at the 
very beginning of a new era.  The wreck of a country left 
behind by the now-deceased President-for-Life, Niyazov, 
combined with 70 years of colonial Soviet rule, compounded by 
nomadic/tribal customs and lack of a nation-state concept, 
create the need for a new model.  Turkmenistan was never 
North Korea, but it is not yet Denmark.  Rather, the current 
state offers a rare opportunity to develop a new model; a 
model molded by, and representative of, the proud people of 
Turkmenistan, with patient but consistent nudges by the 
international community. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Our security relationship with Turkmenistan 
continued unabated through the period of the presidential 
transition and the Defense Ministry appears ready for future 
cooperation to continue at a slow and consistent pace. 
Competition for the time and attention of security officials 
is increasing, however, as other countries, such as Russia, 
also are keen to improve their security relationships with 
Turkmenistan.  The challenge for U.S. security cooperation 
efforts remains finding areas with real traction that produce 
meaningful changes and result in a stronger, sovereign state 
and better security partner for the United States.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
INTRODUCTION 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) A hydrocarbon-rich state that shares borders with 
Afghanistan and Iran, Turkmenistan is in the midst of an 
historic political transition.  The unexpected death of 
President Niyazov on December 21, 2006, ended the 
authoritarian, one-man dictatorship that by the end of his 
life had made Turkmenistan's government among the most 
repressive in the world.  The peaceful transfer of power 
following Niyazov's death confounded many who had predicted 
instability because the former president had no succession 
plan.  President Berdimuhamedov quickly assumed power 
following Niyazov's death with the assistance of the "power 
ministries" -- including the Ministries of National Security 
and Defense, and the Presidential Guard.  His position was 
subsequently confirmed through a public election in which the 
population eagerly participated, even though it did not meet 
international standards. 
 
NIYAZOV'S LEGACY 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov inherited a country that former 
President Niyazov had come close to running into the ground. 
Niyazov siphoned off much of Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon 
proceeds into non-transparent slush funds used, in part, to 
finance his massive construction program in Ashgabat at the 
expense of the country's education and health-care systems. 
Politically, his increasing paranoia -- particularly after 
the 2002 armed attack on his motorcade -- led to high-speed 
revolving-door personnel changes at the provincial and 
national level, and an obsessive inclination to micro-manage 
the details of government.  Criticizing or questioning 
Niyazov's decisions was treated as disloyalty, and could be 
 
ASHGABAT 00001192  002 OF 006 
 
 
grounds for removal from jobs, if not worse.  Niyazov's 
"neutral" foreign policy led to Turkmenistan's political and 
economic isolation from the rest of the world, and his 
policies calling for mandatory increases in cotton and wheat 
production led to destructive agricultural and water-use 
policies that left some of Turkmenistan's arable land salty 
and played-out. 
 
EDUCATION -- "DIMMER PEOPLE EASIER TO RULE" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Niyazov's attacks on the educational system grew 
increasingly destructive in his later years.  The Soviet-era 
educational system was broadly turned into a system designed 
to isolate students from the outside world and to mold them 
into loyal Turkmen-speaking presidential thralls.  President 
Niyazov famously defended this policy when, in 2004, he told 
a fellow Central Asian president, "Dimmer people are easier 
to rule."  Niyazov's destruction of his country's education 
system included cutting the Soviet standard of ten years of 
compulsory education to nine, firing large numbers of 
teachers, and introducing his own works as core curriculum at 
the expense of the traditional building blocks of a basic 
education.  He slashed higher education to two years of study 
and discouraged foreign study by refusing to recognize 
foreign academic degrees.  Taken together, these steps 
created a "lost generation" of under-educated youth 
ill-equipped to help Turkmenistan take its place on the world 
stage. 
 
RULE OF LAW -- A LOW BAR 
------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Niyazov seriously harmed Turkmenistan's political 
system.  His capricious authoritarianism left a legacy of 
corrupt officials lacking initiative, accountability, and -- 
in many cases -- the expertise needed to do their jobs. 
Young officials who came of age after Niyazov's destructive 
changes to the education system are particularly deficient in 
skills and broader world vision needed to facilitate 
Turkmenistan's entry into the international community.  Many 
laws lack transparency and provision for oversight and 
recourse.  The population's lack of understanding of the 
meaning of rule of law has left the bar low in terms of 
citizens' expectations of their government. 
 
BERDIMUHAMEDOV BEGINS TO REBUILD THE SYSTEM 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov still pays nominal lip service to 
maintaining his predecessor's policies, but he has started 
reversing many of the most destructive, especially in the 
areas of education, health, and social welfare.  He has 
restored -- and in many cases -- increased old-age pensions 
that Niyazov had largely eliminated.  The president is 
embarking on a course of hospital-building, with the main 
focus on improving medical facilities in Turkmenistan's five 
provinces.  To this end, he has already authorized 
construction of five provincial mother-and-children 
(maternity) hospitals.  He has also publicly committed to 
improve rural infrastructure and to ensure that every village 
has communications, electricity and running water. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) In education, Berdimuhamedov is reversing many of 
the policies Niyazov ordered him to implement while he served 
as Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers for Education. 
 Since his inauguration, Berdimuhamedov has ordered a return 
to the compulsory standard of ten years' education, a return 
of universities to five years of classroom study, and a new 
emphasis on exchange programs and the hard sciences.  On July 
13, he called for recognition of foreign academic degrees, a 
major step which would allow exchange students to receive 
credit for their overseas study.  The goal is to repair 
Turkmenistan's broken education system as quickly as possible 
and to give the country the educated workforce that it needs 
 
ASHGABAT 00001192  003 OF 006 
 
 
to compete commercially.  These efforts, however, are 
hampered by old-thinking bureaucrats, especially in the 
Ministry of Education, who sometimes block or otherwise 
impede foreign assistance programs.  This may perhaps be a 
legacy of the culture of xenophobia Niyazov had encouraged. 
 
ELIMINATING THE CULT OF PERSONALITY 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has incrementally started 
dismantling Niyazov's cult of personality.  Huge posters of 
the deceased president are beginning to be removed from 
public buildings.  References to Niyazov's "literary" works, 
especially the Ruhnama, are less frequent and probably will 
fade away over time.  The new president has banned the huge 
stadium gatherings in his honor and requirement for students 
and government workers to line the streets, often for hours, 
along presidential motorcade routes.  That said, in some 
places, Niyazov's picture has been replaced by 
Berdimuhamedov's, and the new president's quotes are now 
replacing Ruhnama quotations on newspaper mastheads. 
However, these are practices common in Central Asia. 
 
FIRST STAGES OF POLITICAL REFORM 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has begun replacing the ministers 
he inherited from Niyazov.  His focus seems to be on finding 
better-qualified individuals.  On August 24, he established a 
&Human Rights Commission8 to help bring the practices and 
policies of Turkmenistan's government agencies into line with 
international standards and human rights conventions. 
He has established a state commission to review complaints of 
citizens against law enforcement agencies, which has become a 
vehicle for pardoning at least some of those imprisoned ) 
including for complicity in the 2002 attack on the 
presidential motorcade ) under Niyazov. Berdimuhamedov 
pardoned 11 prisoners, including the former Grand Mufti of 
Turkmenistan, Nasrullah ibn Ibadullah, in early August, and 
promised he would pardon more in the future.  Berdimuhamedov 
has also agreed to allow UNDP to provide human rights 
training to police. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In addition, he has slowly begun to walk back some 
of the most restrictive controls on movement within the 
country, first removing police checkpoints on the roads 
between cities, then -- on July 13 -- eliminating the 
requirement for Turkmenistan's citizens to obtain permits to 
travel to border zones (however, the permit system remains in 
force for foreigners).  Although the president has been 
slower to strengthen the rule of law, correct Turkmenistan's 
previous human rights and religious freedom record, and 
promote economic reform, he has told U.S. officials he wants 
to "turn the page" on the bilateral relationship and is 
willing to work on areas that hindered improved relations 
under Niyazov.  He has approved an unprecedented number of 
visits by U.S. delegations since he took office, including 
those directed toward promoting change. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY:  A NEW FOCUS ON ENGAGEMENT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Notwithstanding his statements that he plans to 
continue the "neutrality" policies of his predecessor, 
Berdimuhamedov -- probably at the advice of Deputy Chairman 
of the Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Minister Rashit 
Meredov -- has put a virtually unprecedented emphasis on 
foreign affairs.  Indeed, Berdimuhamedov has met or spoken by 
telephone with all the leaders in the region -- including 
with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, with whom Niyazov 
maintained a running feud.  He has exchanged visits with 
Russia's President Putin, and held a high-profile gas summit 
with Putin and Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev in 
Turkmenistan's Caspian seaside city of Turkmenbashy 
(Krasnovodsk).  China has a strong and growing commercial 
 
ASHGABAT 00001192  004 OF 006 
 
 
presence in Turkmenistan, and continues to court 
Berdimuhamedov through a series of high-level commercial and 
political visits.  In mid-July, Berdimuhamedov made a state 
visit to China, focused mainly on natural gas and pipeline 
deals.  While Turkey has given Berdimuhamedov top-level 
treatment, including an invitation to Ankara, its 
relationship with Turkmenistan continues to be colored more 
by the image of its lucrative trade and construction 
contracts that are siphoning hundreds of millions of dollars 
away from state budgets here than by generous development 
assistance or fraternal support.  Berdimuhamedov has also 
held positive meetings with high-level U.S. State Department 
officials and leaders of the Organization for Security and 
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and United Nations to discuss 
areas of potential assistance.  He met with UN High 
Commissioner on Human Rights Louise Arbour in May, the Head 
of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human 
Rights (ODIHR), Christian Strohal, and agreed to a visit by 
the UN's Special Rapporteur on Religious Freedom at an as-yet 
undetermined date.  He most recently made his first trip to 
the United States as president to participate in the UNGA 
session in September. 
 
ENERGY RESOURCES 
---------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves, 
but Russia's monopoly of its energy exports has left 
Turkmenistan receiving less than the world price and overly 
beholden to Russia.  Pipeline diversification, including both 
a pipeline to China proposed for 2009 and the possibility of 
resurrecting plans for Trans-Caspian and Trans-Afghanistan 
pipelines that would avoid the Russian routes, and 
construction of high-power electricity lines to transport 
excess energy to Turkmenistan's neighbors, including 
Afghanistan, would not only enhance Turkmenistan's economic 
and political sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of 
prosperity throughout the region.  Berdimuhamedov has told 
U.S. interlocutors he recognizes the need for more options 
and has taken the first steps to this end, but he also took 
the first steps needed to increase the volume of gas exports 
to Russia -- agreeing in principle to build a new littoral 
pipeline -- during the May tripartite summit in Turkmenbashy. 
 He will require encouragement and assistance from the 
international community if he is to maintain a course of 
diversification in the face of almost certain Russian efforts 
to keep Turkmenistan from weaning itself away from Russia. 
 
U.S. POLICY 
----------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) U.S. policy in Turkmenistan is three-fold: 
 
-- Encourage democratic reform and increased respect for 
human rights and fundamental freedoms, including support for 
improvements in the education and health systems; 
 
-- Encourage economic reform and growth of a market economy 
and private-sector agriculture, as well as diversification of 
Turkmenistan's energy export options; and 
 
-- Promote security cooperation. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) In raising human rights concerns, the United 
States: 
 
-- Encourages further relaxation of Niyazov-era abuses and 
restrictions on freedom of movement; 
 
-- Promotes greater religious freedom, including registration 
of unrecognized groups like the Roman Catholic Church, and 
making legal provision for conscientious objectors; and 
 
-- Advocates the growth of civil society by urging the 
government to register non-governmental organizations. 
 
ASHGABAT 00001192  005 OF 006 
 
 
 
SECURITY 
-------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Turkmenistan Armed Forces.  General of the Army 
Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev has remained the Minister of Defense 
since 2002.  Mammetgeldiyev is a trained medical doctor and 
previously was the Chief of the State Border Service (SBS). 
His primary deputy and acting Chief of the General Staff, COL 
Muhammetguly Atabayev, is also a medical doctor.  The only 
general officer in the ministry is the minister.  Since 
taking office, President Berdimuhamedov has initiated several 
changes affecting the military, which Niyazov previously 
maintained as a non-threatening institution and source of 
cheap labor for traffic safety, area beautification, hospital 
orderlies, and other enterprises.  The Ministry of Defense 
(MOD) and Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) are in the 
process of transferring emergency response-related 
responsibilities to a new organization, the State Service for 
Emergency Situations.  The standing MOD practice of supplying 
conscripts for civilian medical services and other civilian 
enterprises also may have ended.  The military, however, 
largely remains a parade force that performs one "major" 
battalion-level exercise annually, and only now may be 
receiving additional presidential attention to repair and 
upgrade its aging Soviet-era equipment.  President 
Berdimuhamedov's decision to allow cabinet ministers to 
travel abroad opens the door for General Mammetgeldiyev to 
visit the United States and participate in foreign events, 
which he previously was forced to decline. 
 
¶18.  (SBU) U.S. Defense Cooperation.  Turkmenistan continues 
to occupy a strategic location in the Global War on 
Terrorism.  Niyazov's UN-endorsed policy of "positive 
neutrality" kept Turkmenistan at arm's length from Russian 
military encumbrances -- and from Iranian maneuvering; 
Niyazov used his minimal security relationship with the 
United States to show his 
"independence" from Moscow.  Turkmenistan remains an 
important conduit for the U.S. military to Afghanistan, and 
maintenance of overflights and the military refueling 
operation at Ashgabat Airport remain key embassy goals. 
Although Turkmenistan is not an option for basing, the 
Turkmenistan government verbally has approved the use of Mary 
Northeast Military Airbase as an emergency divert location 
for distressed U.S. military aircraft. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) CENTCOM Theater Security Cooperation.  In addition 
to OEF support, Turkmenistan cooperates with the U.S. 
military through CENTCOM's annual Program of Security 
Cooperation (PSC).  The program, formerly known as the 
Military to Military Contact Plan, has grown from 20 events 
in FY05 to almost 100 events scheduled for FY08 involving the 
MOD, SBS, and MVD.  In August 2007, the CENTCOM D/J5 signed 
the FY08 PSC with officers from the MOD and MVD.  The PSC 
includes new events on maritime security cooperation based on 
the Defense Ministry's expressed interest in U.S. support for 
the development of its non-existent navy.  Cooperation with 
the MVD is mainly via the Marshall Center and in the field of 
fire response.  SBS interest in close cooperation with the 
U.S. military, however, is less clear. With the assistance of 
the Embassy's EXBS program, the SBS operates the former USCG 
Cutter Point Jackson, a U.S. Excess Defense Article donation, 
however, does not appear interested in deeper maritime 
cooperation.  Turkmenistan marginally participates in NATO 
and EUCOM exchanges, but has participated in Marshall Center 
programs since 1994.  CENTCOM plans to have a permanent 
Security Assistance Officer in place by mid-February 2008 to 
enable CENTCOM and the embassy to manage this increased level 
of security cooperation. 
 
¶20.  (SBU) Through the State Partnership Program and the 
annual military cooperation program, Turkmenistan has a 
long-standing relationship with the Nevada National Guard. 
While the cooperation covers many mutual areas of importance, 
 
ASHGABAT 00001192  006 OF 006 
 
 
current areas of emphasis are disaster preparedness and 
response, fire prevention and response, and counter-narcotics 
activities. 
 
¶21.  (SBU) The Nevada National Guard also supports the 
construction of border crossing stations using 
CENTCOM-provided counter-narcotics funding.  The Altyn Asyr 
border station on the Iranian border was opened in November 
¶2006.  The Imamnazar border station on the Afghanistan border 
opened on 13 August 2007.  CENTCOM recently provided $8M to 
build a third border crossing station at Farap on the 
Uzbekistan border and to purchase communications equipment to 
link border posts with Ashgabat.  The embassy hopes to 
continue working with CENTCOM and the Nevada National Guard 
in the important areas of border security and 
counter-narcotics, primarily focused on the Afghanistan 
border.  Although cooperation on border station construction 
is quite good, the Embassy in mid-July became aware that the 
Altyn Asyr border station has remained unused since its 
commissioning seven months ago.  The Embassy has questioned 
the Turkmenistan government why the last 200 meters of road 
that connects the border station to the existing road has not 
been paved and why the station remains unused. 
 
¶22.  (SBU) U.S. Security Assistance.  Current security 
assistance programs focus on improving the communications 
capability of the Turkmenistan armed forces in the areas of 
emergency response and border security, English language 
ability, and in building a future leadership with western 
principles.  For the first time, the MOD provided a letter in 
March 2007 identifying areas of interest for future IMET 
training.  Current FMF/IMET projections for FY07 are 
$250K/$424K, FY08 $0/$300K, and the United States government 
is re-looking security assistance to Turkmenistan for FY09, 
for which the Embassy has requested $2.8M/$700K. 
Turkmenistan has participated in FMF/IMET since 1997. 
 
¶23.  (SBU) The Turkmenistani government strictly controls 
contact between the U.S. military through the U.S. Defense 
Attache Office and Turkmenistan's security forces.  Relations 
are cordial, but not close.  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
approves all events and activities via diplomatic note.  No 
direct correspondence is allowed, although the coordination 
of MFA-approved events with the MOD has become slightly less 
bureaucratic. 
 
¶24.  (SBU) During your visit, Embassy recommends The Adjutant 
General, Nevada National Guard, emphasize the following: 
 
--  Greater regional security cooperation through 
conferences, training events, and exercises is in the 
interest of both the U.S. and Turkmenistani governments. 
 
--  The United States appreciates our continuing cooperation, 
especially with the military on disaster preparedness and 
response (civil defense), as well as with the customs and 
border services on the border post construction and 
communications projects. 
 
--  The United States appreciates Turkmenistan's continuing 
support in the Global War on Terrorism and for humanitarian 
overflights to Afghanistan. 
 
--  The Nevada National Guard seeks to better understand 
Turkmenistan's desired areas of cooperation and stands ready 
to respond to new proposals. 
HOAGLAND