VZCZCXRO5018
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #1307/01 3041011
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311011Z OCT 07 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6563
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001307 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY (CHANGED PARA MARKING) 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AM
SUBJECT: TER-PETROSSIAN DECLARES CANDIDACY AT LARGE RALLY, 
ASSAILS AUTHORITIES 
 
REF: YEREVAN 1279 
 
YEREVAN 00001307  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) 
announced his candidacy for president at an October 26 
outdoor 
rally of some 20,000 supporters who gathered despite light 
rain 
in Yerevan's Freedom Square.  Blasting the authorities for 
over 
90 minutes, LTP called the ruling regime a kleptocracy, and 
suggested that President Kocharian was involved in the 1999 
assassination of Armenian leaders. LTP also contended that 
the 
ruling regime now accepted the kind of phased resolution of 
the 
Nagorno Karabakh (NK) that LTP had advocated in 1997-98, and 
which Kocharian had branded as defeatist at that time.  LTP 
has 
won the mantle of preeminent opposition candidate.  He now 
faces 
a steep uphill battle to convince voters and overcome 
political 
obstacles. End summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
TIME "TO CALL A SPADE A SPADE" 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Addressing 20,000 supporters who came to Yerevan's 
Freedom Square to hear him announce his 2008 presidential 
candidacy, LTP did not disappoint, opening his speech by 
saying "The hour has struck to call a spade a spade and 
present the bill to the authorities."  LTP was fierce and 
unrelenting in his criticism, calling the current leadership 
a 
"kleptocracy" and a "criminal regime which is corrupt from 
top 
to bottom."  LTP accused the authorities of "state 
racketeering," and charged them with having stolen three to 
four 
billion dollars from the Armenian people over the past five 
years.  Without naming names, LTP referred unmistakably to 
Prime 
Minister Serzh Sargsyan's brother and President Robert 
Kocharian's son, wondering out loud how an "ordinary bus 
driver" 
and a "25-year-old young man" could become two of Armenian's 
richest businessmen in such a short time.  LTP charged that 
the 
authorities' economic policy is directed at ensuring the 
welfare 
of a narrow group of people, where "the homeland is a 
conquered 
territory or business entity." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
KOCHARIAN FAULTED FOR OCTOBER 1999 ASSASSINATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Speaking on the eve of the eighth anniversary of the 
October 27, 1999 assassinations in Armenia's parliament 
that took the lives of the country's prime minister, 
parliamentary speaker, and six others, LTP said "President 
Kocharian did his best to hush up the act of terrorism ...." 
Taking the podium after the son (Stepan Demirchian) and 
brother 
(Aram Sargsian) of the felled leaders had already spoken, LTP 
charged that Kocharian had "directed all suspicions at 
himself," 
having forbidden parts of the investigation to take place, 
fired 
or reassigned personnel involved in the investigation, and 
released key suspects.  LTP called the October assassinations 
the "slaughter" that cleared the way for "the formation and 
development of Kocharian's regime," after which Kocharian 
consolidated his power by eliminating all officials who 
hindered his supremacy. 
 
----------------------------------- 
THE POT THAT CALLS THE KETTLE BLACK 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) LTP assailed the authorities for "having wasted so 
many years" in resolving the Karabakh conflict, challenged 
their commitments to a real resolution, and said the 
 
YEREVAN 00001307  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
allegedly "defeatist" approach they now embraced was the 
very same phased settlement he initially backed in 1997 -- 
the one which ultimately led to his ouster by Kocharian a 
year later.  LTP called for bringing Karabakh leaders to 
the negotiating table, and said the authorities "have 
pretended for the last ten years" to wish to settle the 
conflict, instead trying "to hinder its settlement in every 
way ..." so that the international community eventually 
agrees to maintaining the current - and tenuous - status 
quo."  LTP said it was time to radically change the 
authorities' destructive policy of postponing rather than 
solving the conflict, and to start doing this by "cleaning 
one's own barns" and "preventing the reproduction of 
the current criminal regime ...." 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
MEDIA AND GOAM REACTION TO LTP'S ANNOUNCEMENT 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Media reaction has been predictably divided along 
media outlets' loyalty or opposition to the government. 
Opposition dailies characterized the opposition rally as a 
"turning point" despite previous pessimistic forecasts 
about LTP's prospects, while pro-government newspapers 
continued to say the former president still has no chance 
in 2008.  TV stations, most of which are controlled or 
influenced by the government, negatively characterized the 
rally, juxtaposing misleading images that called into 
question the number of rally participants with extensive 
quotes by President Kocharian reminding Armenians of the 
cold, dark years of LTP's presidency in the mid-90s. 
Kocharian pledged to "remind whoever has forgotten" about 
those 
years.  Opposition newspapers claim a "black PR campaign" 
has already been launched to smear LTP on television. 
Opposition media also claimed that authorities tried 
to restrict citizens from attending the rally.  There were 
reports that state agencies threatened employees not to 
attend, 
and ordered minivan drivers from the regions 
not to work on October 26 in order to impede regional 
participation at the rally.  Yerkir Media, run by the ARF 
(Dashnaksutyun) party, was the only television network that 
aired balanced coverage of the rally. 
 
--------------------------------- 
INITIAL REACTIONS FROM THE STREET 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) EmbOffs at the rally informally queried citizens 
over the weekend to gauge their reaction to LTP's 
announcement.  Some citizens didn't know their had been a 
rally, or thought LTP had already announced during the 
summer.  Most agreed with LTP's assessment that corruption 
has spun out of control, and that the ruling regime has 
become too authoritative for their tastes.  Yet while most 
acknowledged LTP was no saint either, they said that at 
least LTP -- unlike Kocharian or Prime Minister Sargsyan -- 
had had to cope with factors out of his control, like the 
pains of early independence and the Soviet collapse, wars in 
Nagorno Karabakh and neighboring Georgia, and  closed borders 
with Turkey and Azerbaijan.  We detected sympathy in these 
statements, even a bit of nostalgia.  Others we spoke with 
said 
they were so irate over recent price hikes in foodstuffs that 
they would not vote for Sargsyan.  Many we queried said they 
were still undecided who to vote for, or wouldn't vote at 
all. 
Almost all noted, however, that LTP has "a chance" to become 
president again. 
 
------------------------------------ 
LTP ADVISERS ON THE BUMPY ROAD AHEAD 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) At an impromptu meeting two days prior to the 
rally, senior LTP advisers told EmbOffs that the October 
23-24 detention of LTP supporters (reftel) had revealed the 
real extent of concern the ruling regime has over LTP's 
presidential bid.  They also said the rally would be 
the first concrete opportunity to gauge public opinion on 
LTP's political re-emergence after being forced out of 
office a decade ago.  Criticizing the authorities' abuse 
of power, they added that LTP would have to take his 
campaign to the streets to overcome the media blackout 
imposed by the authorities.  They complained that not one 
of the country's 17 TV media outlets would publicize the 
rally, despite offers to all to pay for the advertising. 
They said LTP's visits to all of Armenia's administrative 
 
YEREVAN 00001307  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
regions in the last several months were conducted to 
reconnect 
with his traditional centers of support.  They acknowledged 
that 
LTP still does not have the opposition camp fully behind him, 
but generally viewed his campaign as gathering momentum. 
 
¶8. (SBU) They urged the United States government to pay 
great attention to the 2008 presidential election, as they 
contended it did in Ukraine and Georgia, and hold the 
authorities accountable for a free and fair vote.  They 
said LTP supporters would not accept the results of a 
tainted vote, and that they would "sit in the streets" 
until a free election is held.  They said they expected 
more harassment from authorities as time goes by, and said 
they were aware of the production of video shorts and 
documentary-style footage by the ruling Republican Party 
which will be used in a public smear campaign on TV. 
(Note:  According to media contacts, such footage has 
already been distributed by the presidential administration 
and begun to air as of October 25.  End note.)  In spite of 
the 
challenges ahead, the advisers struck a defiant tone and 
said "we are prepared for anything," and "we have to carry 
on." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The large attendance at the rally showed that LTP 
remains a vaunted political figure in Armenia.  His fierce 
public criticism of the authorities - the second time in 
two months - illustrates the seriousness with which he is 
approaching the campaign.  Although some of the issues he 
raised clearly resonate with the person on the street, 
whether it be corruption or being left out of Armenia's 
impressive economic growth, it is still too early to gauge 
Armenians' receptivity to a second LTP era.  Given the 
obstacles the authorities are already placing in LTP's path, 
his 
campaign remains very much of an uphill climb.  LTP's fiery 
entrance into the race, however, appears to have shaken up 
the 
seemingly apathetic Armenian body politic.  End comment. 
PENNINGTON