VZCZCXRO2251
RR RUEHNZ
DE RUEHWL #0765/01 2901843
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171843Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4813
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1501
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4995
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0583
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: NATIONAL MAINTAINS POLLING LEAD OVER LABOUR 
 
REFTEL:  Wellington 538 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Some recent polls show the gap closing between 
the ruling Labour Party and the opposition National Party, but the 
double digit National lead continues, despite several recent highly 
publicized political fumbles by National Party officials.  National 
Party officials privately admit that the party needs to improve its 
public messages and not open the door to easy Labour attacks that 
undermine voter confidence.  Experts believe that although Labour 
continues to stubbornly lag behind in the polls, a fourth term for 
PM Helen Clark cannot be ruled out.  End Summary. 
National Lead Over Labour Continues 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Recent political polls, while differing in the lead 
attributed to the National Party, indicate that the opposition party 
continues to outpoll the ruling Labour Party (reftel).  Some recent 
polling shows that the opposition National Party has maintained its 
comfortable double-digit lead over the ruling Labour Party. 
However, other polls indicate Labour has gained some ground on 
National, reducing National's lead to a narrower margin. 
¶3. (SBU) In keeping with an established voter trend against Labour 
that began at the end of first quarter 2007, the September Fairfax 
Media/Nielsen poll showed National at 50% and Labour at 36%.  The 
same poll found that a staggering 62% of those surveyed believe that 
National will lead the next government, with Labour support recorded 
at 26%.  Further reinforcing the trend, the Roy Morgan polls of 
August and October had National leading Labour by an average of 
15.5%. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Other polling in August and September indicates that Labour 
was gaining ground on National.  The September findings of the One 
News-Colmar Brunton poll showed that National had dropped 4 points 
since the last poll in August to 49% with Labour picking up 3 points 
to finish at 39%.  The August Herald Digipoll was in line with the 
prevailing trend when it found National ahead of Labour by 15 
points.  By the end of September, however, this same poll found the 
gap had narrowed to barely 5 points.  The September One News-Colmar 
Brunton and Herald Digipoll both came in a month when National's 
leader, John Key, was not in the media spotlight nearly as much as 
Clark. During this period Clark received good press for voicing the 
argument against nuclear power at the APEC Leaders' summit and the 
government's climate change announcements.(Note:  Sources within the 
National Party have told us that they routinely discounted those 
polls that placed National 12-15 percentage points ahead of Labour. 
National's own polling has shown an 8-10 point lead, which they 
consider more realistic.  End Note.) 
 
Despite Recent National Mistakes Gap Fails To Narrow 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶5.  (SBU) The polls that showed a slight upswing in support for 
Labour were paradoxically all conducted before a series of National 
Party blunders which threatened to further close the gap between the 
two parties.  National Party leadership recently floated several 
half-formulated policies that recalled former National failures. 
Labour has tried to capitalize on such remarks to question whether 
National has abandoned its more unpopular economic policies of the 
past. 
¶6. (SBU) The first blunder was made by National's shadow Finance 
Minister Bill English, when he floated the idea of selling up to 50% 
of selected state-owned companies to help finance improvements to 
New Zealand's public infrastructure. Labour seized on his 
announcement as favoring privatization and assets sale - both 
concepts that instill apprehension in many New Zealand voters who 
still remember widespread job losses that resulted from the last 
major round of asset sales in the 1980s.  Key then talked about 
having schools built and operated by private enterprise.  After 
receiving flak from both the media and Labour, Key tried to reassure 
voters that these ideas were not policy decisions but rather options 
"seriously under consideration" by his party. 
¶7. (SBU)  The third blunder was committed by National Health 
spokesman Tony Ryall, who announced a controversial proposal that 
would lift the ceiling on doctors' fees; Ryall also omitted the 
policy from the party's health policy paper, leading critics to 
charge that National was unwilling to come clean on its real 
policies.  All three statements played into Labour's long-held 
assertion that National, even under the supposedly moderate 
leadership of Key, has a hidden, right-wing policy agenda that will 
only emerge once National is in power.  In all three instances, 
National Party officials - sensitive to media and Labour demands 
that they provide greater specificity to their party platform - had 
prematurely speculated about potential policies without having a 
well-thought-out justification in the face of almost-certain Labour 
criticism.  National spokesmen have shrugged off the recent 
missteps, acknowledging that mistakes have been made and that 
National cannot afford to look so inept in the future. Yet despite 
Labour's best efforts to capitalize on National's errors the latest 
poll, from One News-Colmar Brunton, on October 14 showed that 
 
WELLINGTON 00000765  002 OF 003 
 
 
National had held steady at 49% with Labour itself dropping two 
points to 37%. 
Don't Write Off Labour Yet 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Political analysts say that despite National's lead, Labour 
is still a political force and there remains considerable time 
before Clark must call for an election.  Even one of Clark's 
fiercest critics, former National Party leader Don Brash, has spoken 
of her ability to steer Labour to victory at the next election. 
Brash, who came close to unseating Clark at the last election in 
2005, said that Labour under Clark's leadership can never be ruled 
out because of her renowned political survival skills and the 
ability, as the Prime Minister, not only to "promise things, but to 
actually do things."  National sources also indicate that the PM is 
determined to achieve what no New Zealand PM since the Second World 
War has attained - a fourth term. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Prominent Auckland-based political scientists, Raymond 
Miller and Barry Gustafson, both echoed Brash's observation noting 
that Clark can take control in election year from her "privileged 
position in government".  Miller believes that Clark's greatest 
success as leader has been "her ability to reach across political 
parties and forge deals, a vital political skill under New Zealand's 
proportional representation electoral system."  Former Labour leader 
Mike Moore has also predicted that Labour could form a government 
even by polling less than National, because the minor parties would 
rather work with Labour than with National. 
 
What Should Labour Do? 
---------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Political analysts argue that the Government cannot rely 
on capitalizing on National Party gaffes if Labour is to defeat 
National in 2008. The October One News-Colmar Brunton poll 
reinforces this argument.  Indications are that Labour is likely to 
take several steps in the near future to win back some momentum from 
National.  One area that has been subject to intense media 
speculation for some weeks has been a shakeup in the Labour Cabinet. 
 Labour's front bench is much the same as it was when it came to 
power eight years ago.  If the party wants to give a reinvigorated 
look to the public, so the logic goes, it is past time for a Cabinet 
shuffle.  Clark, on the other hand, is very loyal to her Ministers, 
and is not likely to make radical changes for fear of internal party 
dissension in the run up to the Labour Party Conference, scheduled 
for early November.  Political analysts believe that whatever 
reshuffle takes place will be modest, with a likely announcement 
before the break for summer holidays in early December.  There is 
also speculation that those most likely to advance are more to the 
Right side of the Labour party than the Left.  But, most analysts 
doubt voters will give Labour any credit for such a modest 
reshuffle. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Another area where Labour must address public concerns is 
tax reform.  The government recently announced significant budgetary 
surpluses, which have reinforced National's calls for tax cuts. 
Finance Minister Michael Cullen has been coy in responding to such 
calls, noting that much of the surplus is already slated for 
infrastructure upgrades.  Media analysts believe that Labour will 
hold off in announcing any cuts until the budget is released at the 
end of the first quarter in 2008, thereby giving voters some extra 
cash just before the election is called.  Some journalists are 
already warning voters not to take the bait, as the following year 
could see their taxes go up again if Labour is returned to power. 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  A third area is to refocus the government on the 
business of governing rather than trying to discredit John Key and 
National over old speeches and newspaper quotes - which have not 
worked with voters nor impacted National in polling results.  Labour 
of late has tried to shift the focus back to governance but several 
badly drafted bills, including one on campaign finance, have left 
many wondering if the Labour Government has lost its way. Clark's 
recent climate change policy (which had National's support) shows 
that Labour still has a knack for articulating a vision that has 
broad appeal across the political spectrum.  On the other hand, some 
media critics have argued that voters want more than lofty idealism 
- they are concerned with rising prices and shrinking purchasing 
power. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) At this early stage, the polls are an interesting 
barometer for gauging public opinion, but the election remains 
nearly a year away.  Both sides need to rethink, or at least 
refurbish, their respective game plans. National needs to up its 
 
WELLINGTON 00000765  003 OF 003 
 
 
game and defend its policy choices rather than running for cover at 
the first volley of Labour criticism.  Labour needs to address the 
classic third-term blues, and find ways to reconnect with the 
voters.  More specifically, Labour should realize that New 
Zealanders are more likely to vote with their wallets in 2008 rather 
than according to their ideals.  End Comment. 
 
Keegan