VZCZCXRO6619
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2379/01 2960716
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230716Z OCT 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7206
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7380
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1426
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2160
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6134
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0611
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8660

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002379 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP and KMT Preparing for Possible Kaohsiung Mayoral 
Supplemental Election 
 
REF:  A) Taipei 1565  B) Taipei 1457  C) Taipei 1382  D) 2005 Taipei 
3793 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  The Taiwan High Court Kaohsiung Branch reportedly 
will announce its final ruling on November 16 on Kaohsiung Mayor 
Chen Chu's appeal against the District Court's earlier judgment that 
nullified the results of the December 2006 Kaohsiung mayoral 
election (reftel c).  While a local journalist told AIT/K he expects 
the High Court to deny Mayor Chen's appeal, a local attorney 
predicted the opposite result, and even the KMT's lawyers have 
indicated they are not overly optimistic about the Court upholding 
the nullification decision.  The DPP is concerned the nullification 
may be upheld for reasons of political bias within the judiciary. 
Both the KMT and DPP are actively making preparations for a possible 
supplementary mayoral election.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The Taiwan High Court Kaohsiung Branch held its final 
public hearing October 15 regarding Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu's 
appeal against the first District Court ruling, which nullified the 
results of the December 2006 Kaohsiung mayoral election (see reftels 
a,b,c).  The High Court reportedly will announce its final ruling on 
November 16.  If Mayor Chen loses her appeal, a supplementary 
mayoral election must be held within three months.   According to 
Ms. Pan Jui-er, a senior staff member of the Kaohsiung Election 
Committee (KEC), if the High Court declines Mayor Chen's appeal, KEC 
will begin on the same day, November 16, to prepare a supplementary 
mayoral election, which must be completed fully within three months. 
  According to Pan, two months will be needed for internal 
administrative preparation.  One additional week is needed for 
posting the election announcement and ten days for accepting 
registrations.  A November 16 announcement that upholds the 
nullification will not allow for the supplementary mayoral election 
to be held simultaneously with either the LY elections, scheduled 
for January 12, 2008, or with the presidential election, scheduled 
for March 22, 2008. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  On September 28, 2007, Central News Agency Reporter Chen 
Chi-feng, who attended the final public hearing on the Kaohsiung 
mayoral nullification lawsuit, told AIT/K he believes there is an 
eighty percent chance Chen Chu's appeal will be denied and a 
supplementary election ordered.  According to Mr. Chen, the decision 
to uphold the nullification may revolve around alleged perjured 
testimony of former Kaohsiung City Government Information Office 
Director Hsiao Yu-cheng, then-spokesman of Chen Chu's campaign 
office.  According to court records, Hsiao testified that Chen Chu 
was not informed of any of the three press conferences held by her 
campaign office to accuse KMT mayoral candidate Huang Chun-ying of 
vote-buying.  Chen Chi-feng noted that Hsiao's accounts immediately 
were rebutted by the KMT's lawyers who played the recording of a TV 
interview in which Chen Chu told the media on election day of plans 
for one of the press conferences about her opponent's alleged 
vote-buying scandal.  Mr. Chen suggested that because of Hsiao's 
supposed attempted cover up of Chen Chu's involvement, judges may 
dismiss Mayor Chen's request to overturn the nullification.  Chan 
Yuan-hsiang, former Next Magazine correspondent and executive 
secretary for former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, told AIT/K 
 
SIPDIS 
that there is widespread speculation among local media that Chen Chu 
will lose the case based on the weight of the evidence presented by 
Huang Chun-ying's lawyers that points to perjury. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to the journalist Chen Chi-feng, if Chen Chu 
loses her appeal, she is legally prohibited from running in the 
supplementary election.  Instead, many speculate that Chen Chi-mai 
would run as the DPP candidate against the KMT's Huang Chun-ying in 
a supplementary election.  Fueling that speculation is that 
Kaohsiung's newly-appointed vice mayor, Lin Ren-yi, has close ties 
with Chen Chi-mai.  [NOTE:  Chen Chi-mai, who took over as Acting 
Mayor of Kaohsiung when Frank Hsieh left the post to become Premier 
in 2005, resigned in the wake of the 2005 Thai labor riots in 
Kaohsiung as reported in reftel D.]  Chen Chi-mai's resurrection in 
local politics became possible only when his father, former 
Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-general Chen Che-nan, was 
absolved by a court of all corruption charges related to the Thai 
labor scandal. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) It is also open knowledge in Kaohsiung that the local DPP 
is making preparations for a supplementary mayoral election by 
deploying Chen Chi-mai's team players, such as the new Vice-Mayor, 
within the city government.  Dr. Liao Da-chi, Professor of 
International Relations at National Sun Yat-sen University, 
 
TAIPEI 00002379  002 OF 002 
 
 
indicated that the KMT is also busy preparing for the election, but 
doubts Huang Chun-ying can win even this time around given his lack 
of charisma and the negative fallout that may have come from the 
nullification lawsuits.  Although the KMT could field a different 
candidate if the supplementary election is held, Lai Feng-wei, 
Deputy Chair of the Kaohsiung City KMT office, indicated that Huang 
Chun-ying still is the most qualified KMT candidate.  According to 
Lai, not only did Huang run well in the first election, but Huang 
has pursued the nullification lawsuit with great conviction.  Lai 
said that Huang himself has great interest in running and that many 
of Huang's supporters, including KMT officials, have urged him to 
run if there is a supplementary election. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Attorney Hung Kuo-chin told AIT/K that the Kaohsiung High 
Court will probably reverse the first ruling, thus validating Chen 
Chu's election and status as current mayor.  Hung noted the first 
District Court ruling has been criticized widely for breaching due 
process of law as the appointed judge's opinions were not accepted 
by the presiding judge (reftel b).   An assistant of former KMT 
mayoral candidate Huang Chun-ying told AIT/K that their own 
lawyer(s) believe the chances of the High Court upholding the 
nullification decision are about fifty-fifty.  Huang Chun-ying, in 
the meantime, he said, is keeping busy readying for the 
supplementary election, knowing it will require far more than three 
months to prepare for a full-blown mayoral election. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Former DPP Kaohsiung City Chairman Chao Wen-nan, now a 
Kaohsiung City official, expressed concern that blue-leaning judges 
will issue a biased ruling in order to unseat the DPP in Kaohsiung. 
Nevertheless, he argued, a KMT win in this suit would only serve to 
unite and motivate DPP supporters, adversely affecting KMT hopes for 
the upcoming legislative and presidential elections.  Chao 
acknowledged that former Acting Mayor Chen Chi-mai's team is now 
preparing for a possible supplementary mayoral election, but said 
they have been told by the DPP to keep a low profile. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment.  The final ruling on this mayoral nullification 
case, especially should the nullification be upheld, has the 
potential to become an issue in the upcoming 2008 Taiwan legislative 
and presidential elections. The DPP would likely blame the result on 
bias in a blue-leaning judiciary, while the KMT could claim a 
victory over illegal DPP campaign tactics.  End comment. 
 
Thiele 
 
Young