VZCZCXRO3850
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2301/01 2820221
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090221Z OCT 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7090
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7336
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1401
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2136
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6109
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0587
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8618

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Ma Ying-jeou's "Long Stay" Campaign in Southern Taiwan: 
Early Indications 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
REF:  TAIPEI 2095 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's "long 
stay" campaign strategy appears to be having a positive effect in 
south Taiwan, as indicated by recent opinion polls showing his 
approval rating increased by 5 percent following his recent long 
stay effort.  Southern DPP party operatives acknowledge their own 
polling indicates Ma's long-stay drive has diminished the DPP's lead 
in this traditionally heavily "green" part of Taiwan.  Ma apparently 
learned about and took to heart the political influence of 
underground radio stations in the south, for the KMT has started 
buying broadcast time from legal radio stations to counteract the 
anticipated negative impact underground stations will have on Ma's 
presidential campaign in the South.  Ma's campaign aides in the 
south express optimism that his personal charisma, reinforced by his 
long stay campaign, will encourage swing voters and maybe even 
"light green" supporters to vote for him and the KMT.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ma Ying-jeou's senior election campaign advisor Dr. Steve 
Chan told AIT/K that Ma Ying-jeou's long stay project in southern 
Taiwan has been beneficial to his campaign there and has given Ma a 
better understanding of southern attitudes and of the depressed 
state of the economy in southern Taiwan.  According to Chan, Ma's 
popularity increased by 5 percent after his recent long stay in 
southern Taiwan from August 9 to September 18.  Chan noted that as 
he escorted Ma during his long stay project in southern Taiwan 
(covering brief periods in every major city and county), he came 
away convinced that many business people who had previously 
supported the DPP, appeared increasingly ready to switch and vote 
for the KMT out of disappointment over the Dip's poor economic 
performance.  Chan also stressed the positive response Ma received 
from the general public and wide recognition from the "silent group" 
of centrist swing voters.  (Bio note.  Chan was President of Chi Mei 
Hospital in Tainan, where President Chen Shui-bian received 
emergency medical treatment for a gunshot wound during his 2004 
election campaign.  He served as Director of the Executive Yuan's 
Health Department in the 1990's.  End Note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to Chan,  the KMT is buying time slots from 
formerly underground, but now legal, radio stations in southern 
Taiwan to counteract underground radio stations that have served as 
mouthpieces for the DPP and earlier for the opposition movement in 
the 1970's and 1980's.  Chan noted that some local radio stations 
have even offered to put on talk shows and advertise for the KMT 
free of charge because the radio station owners, as entrepreneurs, 
believe the KMT is the best hope for change and rescuing the 
southern Taiwan economy.  On the other hand, some legal radio 
stations have been unwilling to sell time to the KMT so as not to 
offend their major advertising clients in the south, including DPP 
candidates and party.  Some of them have bluntly told the KMT that 
they do not expect to receive any KMT advertising following the 2008 
presidential election campaign and do not want to jeopardize their 
long-term income stream for the few dollars they can earn during 
campaign season. 
 
¶4. Chan told AIT/K that Ma was warmly received by local people 
during his "long stay" visits in southern Taiwan.  This face-to-face 
contact, he said, was helping change people's impressions about Ma, 
who has long been viewed by southerners as born to a privileged KMT 
family.  According to Chan, Ma made a number of campaign promises to 
boost economic development in southern Taiwan during his long stay 
in southern Taiwan, including cross-strait direct links, government 
funding for local infrastructure and financial assistance for local 
fishery, agriculture and traditional industries. 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to Chan, Ma is planning to come back to southern 
Taiwan for another "long stay" campaign visit to further strengthen 
his ties with southern Taiwan.  Chan said that during his meetings 
with various local professional groups he has discovered that 
southern Taiwan is no longer an exclusive DPP political stronghold. 
For example, some medical groups that have traditionally been deep 
green supporters have changed their views on Taiwan politics and 
their attitudes toward certain political parties.  Chan attributed 
some of the credit for this shift to his own active efforts reaching 
out and speaking to large and small medical associations throughout 
the south, in particular explaining the KMT's proposed health care 
program.  Chan did note, however, that the Frank Hsieh and Su 
Tseng-chang team will be formidable and that the DPP has the most 
 
SIPDIS 
disciplined politicians in Taiwan. 
 
 
TAIPEI 00002301  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Separately, Central News Agency Reporter Cheng Chi-feng 
told AIT/K that he believed Ma's long stay campaign had helped him 
consolidate hardcore KMT voters and encourage swing voters, "light 
blue" (i.e., tending toward the KMT) or maybe even "light green" 
supporters to vote for him and the KMT.  In southern Taiwan, he 
noted, light blue supporters and swing voters tend to be silent and 
politically apathetic, and usually do not vote.  If these voters can 
be stimulated to go vote, he continued, Ma's chances of winning the 
presidential race will be greatly strengthened, since the KMT 
already has a larger voter base than the DPP in northern Taiwan. 
Taiwan Daily News reporter Tsui Chia-chi separately told AIT that 
Ma's long stay campaign is helping him in the south.  Ma's effort to 
learn the Taiwanese language, moreover, is another plus in his 
election campaigning in southern Taiwan. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In various meetings with DPP and KMT party operatives in 
Tainan and Kaohsiung (reftel), AIT/K learned that both DPP and KMT 
private opinion polls show Ma's long-stay campaign has eaten into 
DPP support in the South.  In a recent meeting with former Chiayi 
mayor Chang Bo-ya (non-affiliated, but green leaning during her 
tenure) AIT/K learned that Chang, who is greatly disillusioned with 
the DPP, thinks Ma's short stay in Chiayi could have minimal effect. 
 Although she indicated she may personally support Ma's policies, 
she cannot declare public support for him in order to sway her 
grassroots supporters.  She characterized her supporters as solidly 
green, indicating her public support for Ma would win her a lot of 
public criticism while Ma would gain no votes.  Chiayi County's DPP 
and KMT party chairs agreed that Ma's one day visit to Chiayi had 
some small effect, but neither felt Ma could capture any significant 
votes in Chiayi unless the KMT wins one of the two LY seats in the 
upcoming legislative election.  Neither the DPP nor KMT chairs 
expressed optimism about that outcome in Chiayi County. 
 
¶8. (U) Comment:  While DPP leaders publicly denigrate Ma's southern 
long stay campaign as "useless' and "a joke," privately they 
acknowledge concern that Ma's campaign appears to be increasing his 
popularity in southern Taiwan.  For their part, KMT operatives 
appear more upbeat as their messages seem to be falling on fertile 
ground.  End Comment. 
 
Thiele 
 
Young