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DE RUEHSF #1272/01 3021645
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P 291645Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4467
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001272 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: RULING SOCIALISTS, POPULIST GERB CLAIM VICTORY IN LOCAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1259, (B) SOFIA 1176, (C) SOFIA 1269, (D) SOFIA 678 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  PM Sergei Stanishev's ruling Socialists and the 
populist GERB party of Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov both claimed 
victory in the October 28 local vote, as party leaders spun the 
outcome of the hotly contested election.  The Socialists said they 
had won the bulk of the nationwide vote for municipal counselors. 
GERB won the mayoral races in Sofia and Plovdiv, the two biggest 
cities, and won most votes in larger towns, but fell short of a 
hoped-for national landslide victory.  The Socialists retained their 
traditionally strong base in rural areas and small towns.  The 
overall picture will be clearer after the November 4 mayoral run-off 
elections in which mostly Socialist and GERB candidates will face 
off.  Turnout was around 42 percent, normal for European mid-term 
elections.  The vote was marred by massive allegations of vote 
buying, with price reportedly running as high as 300 levs (USD 
¶220.  END SUMMARY 
 
 
SOCIALISTS CLAIM VICTORY DESPITESOFIA LOSS 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The Bulgarian Socialist Prty (BSP), which dominates the 
ruling three-part coalition, claimed national victory in the 
elecion despite a clear defeat in Sofia where its canddate, former 
external intelligence officer Brigo sparuhov came in a lackluster 
third (Ref. A).  M Stanishev said his party captured the bulk of 
he votes for municipal counselors across the county, terming the 
outcome a "mid-term success" for is ruling party.  The PM quoted 
preliminary resuls based on 70 percent of the vote counted, whichshowed that the BSP had captured some 21.0 percentof the vote, 
followed by GERB with 17.4 percent,the predominantly ethnic Turkish 
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) with 14.0 percent, and 
extreme nationalist Ataka party with 8.0 percent.  The National 
Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) won 2.67 percent of the votes for 
municipal counselors, followed by the traditional center-right 
parties - the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan 
Kostov's Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB) with about 2.2 percent 
each, the PM said. (The Central Electoral commission does not 
publish consolidated nationwide results for political parties 
because they form different coalitions in different municipalities. 
Ref. B) 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  A visibly cheerful Stanishev told an election night news 
conference that predictions about an electoral collapse of the BSP 
have not come true and the result was a "clear success" for the BSP, 
especially given the teachers' strike and rising consumer prices 
(Ref. C).  He noted that forecasts for a GERB landslide had not 
materialized, adding that the results gave no grounds for Borissov 
to seek an early vote for parliament.  The PM saw his two-year 
government completing a full term in office through mid-2009, and 
vowed to stick to his current policies of political and economic 
stability. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The internal Socialist opposition nevertheless attacked 
the PM, saying the BSP's defeat in Sofia was a "slap in BSP's face." 
 Asparuhov, the failed Socialist candidate who is a key figure in 
the BSP's hard-line Generals' Movement, said the BSP's loss in Sofia 
was a "catastrophe."  He blamed his defeat on the BSP leadership, 
claiming their reformist policies had alienated the BSP base.  The 
PM ignored his comrades' attack, attributing BSP's loss to the 
traditionally low support for the Socialists in Sofia, which has 
been a center-right stronghold since communism collapsed. 
 
 
GERB DOMINATES IN BIGGER CITIES 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Seen as the rising force on the domestic political scene, 
Borissov's GERB party won the mayoral races in the two biggest 
cities, Sofia and Plovdiv, and captured the biggest share of the 
vote for municipal counselors in many of the larger towns.  In 
Sofia, Borissov, who served as Interior Ministry Secretary before 
becoming mayor in 2005, won re-election with 53 percent of the 
votes, compared to around 18 percent for center-right candidate 
Martin Zaimov and around 15 percent for BSP's Asparuhov.  (The Sofia 
electoral commission has not yet announced the final result and BSP 
officials say it is still possible that their candidate may come in 
second.)  Once again, debates over Borissov's questionable past and 
at least superficial ties to local organized crime leaders have not 
eroded public support for the former firefighter and bodyguard.  At 
a news conference October 29, Borissov questioned the Socialists' 
claims for a victory, saying that GERB has edged out the Socialists 
as it did in the May election for members of the European Parliament 
(Ref. D). According to Borissov, a total of 591,969 citizens across 
the country backed his party compared to 512,230 for the BSP.  He 
said the election result asserted GERB's position as a leading 
political force in Bulgaria and legitimized it as the biggest force 
on the center-right.  Borissov retreated from his previous calls for 
early general elections, giving evasive answers to repeated 
questions on the subject.  He did not miss the opportunity to boast 
again about his "special ties with the U.S.," noting his close 
cooperation with U.S. law enforcement services during his tenure at 
 
SOFIA 00001272  002 OF 002 
 
 
the Interior Ministry. 
 
STRONG SHOWING FOR ETHNIC TURKS, NATIONALISTS 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The predominantly ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior coalition 
partner in the government, retained its dominance in areas with a 
majority ethic Turkish population.  It defended its traditional 
stronghold Kurdzhali, a northeastern town where the incumbent MRF 
mayor won an outright victory.  With what many saw as arrogant 
indifference to public reaction, the MRF continued its practice of 
bussing dual citizens from Turkey to vote for the MRF, despite legal 
changes aimed at curbing this practice.  Eighty-nine busses with 
Bulgarian nationals living in Turkey were reported to have crossed 
the border on October 27-28.  The phenomenon, known as "electoral 
tourism," has stirred deep passions among ethic Bulgarians and 
partly explains the strong showing of extreme nationalist Ataka, 
running on anti-MRF rhetoric. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Strongly anti-U.S. and anti-EU, Ataka retained its highly 
energized base, defeating expectations that the bulk of its 
supporters would migrate to GERB.  Ataka leader Volen Siderov said 
the result was a success for his young party, which has become an 
important factor in Bulgarian politics since its launch in mid-2005. 
 Candidates of Ataka have made it to the run-off in two major towns, 
Burgas and Blagoevgrad,  according to preliminary results.  Siderov 
accused the BSP-led coalition of election fraud, saying the results 
in MRF-controlled municipalities had been manipulated and is seeking 
to disqualify the vote because of the use of transparent ballot 
boxes. 
 
BREATH OF LIFE FOR THE OLD CENTER-RIGHT? 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of 
Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for Strong 
Bulgaria (DSB) - scored relatively well given their waning support. 
Two joint center-right candidates in major towns won re-election in 
the first round.  The center-right candidate's second place in Sofia 
was also viewed as success although many center-right voters in 
Sofia have migrated to GERB.  Center-right leaders said they hoped 
the local vote would give an impetus for cooperation on a national 
scale and revival of the traditional center-right, which has been in 
disarray since 2001. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's National Movement for Simeon 
II (NMSS), a junior partner in the government, registered an 
election loss similar to its disastrous showing in the 2003 local 
vote.  The results reflect falling support for the ex-king's party, 
torn by high-profile infighting and a legal dispute about the 
legitimacy of the party leadership.  NMSS officials put the best 
face on a humiliating result, noting that some NMSS-backed mayoral 
candidates have made it to the run-off. 
 
MASSIVE VOTE BUYING 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  This year's local election saw a surge in the practice 
of buying votes, a phenomenon especially widespread in regions with 
large Roma populations and on the Black Sea coast, where the vote 
was contested by many "business parties," i.e., regional parties 
linked to local businesses seeking direct representation in local 
administrations.  The price of one vote reportedly varied from 20 to 
300 levs (USD 220) with stakes going up considerably this year 
because of the municipalities' increased powers to manage hundreds 
of millions of euros in EU structural funds.  If there is a bright 
spot, it is the widespread citizen anger at the practice and demands 
that it be cleaned up.  The Interior Ministry has launched 
investigations based on eyewitness accounts and citizen complaints. 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  The specifics of the local election, 
characterized as "the vote with many winners," allowed rival parties 
to claim "victory."  What is clear is that BSP and GERB have emerged 
as the leading forces in Bulgarian politics and will likely shape 
the next parliament.  Borissov's party scored well but failed to 
achieve the sweeping election victory it hoped for, thus making 
early elections less likely.  The party has yet to evolve from a 
Borissov-centered phenomenon into a traditional party based on a 
clear ideology.  GERB and another anti-status quo party, extreme 
nationalist Ataka, captured the bulk of the protest vote against the 
Socialist-led coalition.  GERB's strong representation at the local 
level, coupled with strikes by civil servants and ongoing BSP 
infighting, will generate political tensions but is not likely to 
force early elections.  PM Stanishev's problems stem more from 
internal party attacks and the need to maintain his equilibrium 
within the BSP and the three-party coalition.  The overall picture 
will be clearer after the run-off on November 4.  END COMMENT.