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P 191759Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 002366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR C WARD AND E JAFFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON DR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: CANDIDATES WARM UP FOR THE 
BIG GAME 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With the presidential election only seven 
months away, candidates Leonel Fernandez and Miguel Vargas 
Maldonado are tapping into the Dominican passion for 
baseball.  Both recently threw out ceremonial first pitches 
at Major League Baseball games in the United States, during 
trips in which they pursued votes and campaign contributions 
among the Dominican diaspora.  President Fernandez and his 
ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) continue to focus 
their campaign on reminding voters of the poor record in 
office from 2000 to 2004 of the opposition Dominican 
Revolutionary Party (PRD).  The PRD's Vargas Maldonado is 
also hammering away at his opponent's record, arguing that 
the PLD talks a good game but delivers little.  The PRD also 
alleges that Fernandez is abusing government resources for 
political ends, and that the President violated the 
constitution in seeking a $130 million loan for public works. 
 The PLD retorts that it has the goods on Vargas and his 
association with the Marbella scandal in Spain.  Polling 
shows Fernandez leading Vargas by three-to-seven percent. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
A-ROD VS. PEDRO 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Officials from the PLD and PRD both recently told 
POLOFF that the Dominican people have two passions -- 
baseball and politics.  It should therefore come as no 
surprise that the two leading presidential candidates visited 
Major League stadiums last month during visits to the U.S. 
President Fernandez threw out the first pitch at Yankee 
Stadium, then dined with New York star Alex Rodriguez. 
Vargas was the guest of honor at a Marlins-Mets game in 
Miami, where he shared center stage with pitcher Pedro 
Martinez.  Both candidates spent a considerable amount of 
time in the U.S., where Dominican politicians traditionally 
seek campaign contributions and votes from the diaspora. 
Back in the Dominican Republic, Vargas held a campaign event 
where he received the public endorsement of Jose Rijo, winner 
of the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award in the 1990 World 
Series.  Adopting baseball's acronym, Vargas' campaign 
material frequently features the lettering "MVP" matched with 
the phrase "Miguel Vargas Presidente." 
 
REMEMBER 2002 
------------- 
 
¶3. (U) In a country with widespread poverty, bread and butter 
issues will continue to dominate the presidential campaign. 
The PLD repeatedly reminds voters of the poor economic 
performance of the last PRD government (2000-2004), when a 
banking crisis led to a major economic downturn and a spike 
in unemployment.  At a recent event, Fernandez focused on how 
the PLD stabilized the economy after taking office in 2004, 
and highlighted the fiscal and development setbacks he 
believes the country suffered under PRD rule from 1978-1986. 
The President said, "The Dominican economy always grows, 
except when the Dominican Revolutionary Party governs." 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a meeting with ECOPOLCOUNS and POLOFF, Francisco 
Javier Garcia, the PLD's campaign director, addressed the 
PRD's attempts to redefine their image.  Garcia argued that 
while Vargas has de-emphasized the PRD logo on his campaign 
material, the candidate is inextricably linked to the last 
administration's failures since he served in the cabinet as 
Minister of Public Works.  Garcia reinforced the President's 
arguments regarding economic performance, treating EMBOFFs to 
a long series of statistics without referring to notes. 
 
THE M.B.A. PRESIDENT 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) One way in which the Vargas campaign seeks to 
 
differentiate itself from the poor economic management of the 
last PRD government is to emphasize their candidate's 
business experience.  Vargas, a wealthy construction magnate, 
recently told the press that his campaign represents "modern 
management," which he contrasted with what he termed the 
PLD's "improvisation."  This PRD campaign theme seeks to chip 
away at one of the PLD's advantages -- Fernandez's excellent 
oratory skills -- by portraying the President as 
all-talk-and-no-action.  Other key PRD campaign themes 
include charges that the incumbent government has spent too 
little on health and education; indebted the country and 
engaged in questionable contracting for the Santo Domingo 
subway system; and, raised taxes on three occasions while the 
working class sees little improvement in the delivery of 
government services. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In a meeting with ECOPOLCOUNS and POLOFF, Orlando 
Jorge Mera, Secretary-General of the PRD, focused on his 
party's charge that President Fernandez is abusing government 
resources for political ends.  When asked for specific 
examples, Jorge produced a binder filled with advertisements 
paid for by government ministries, in which the Fernandez 
administration's accomplishments were touted.  Jorge noted 
that Fernandez's campaign slogan, "Let's move forward!," is 
used in the publicly funded materials, and claimed that 
government spending on advertisements has increased by 71 
percent under PLD rule.  The PRD leader also expressed strong 
concerns with the manner in which the President inaugurates 
public works projects, alleging that the presentations and 
speeches at many of the events give the clear impression of a 
political rally.  Jorge said that his party believes the 
government's use of public funds represents a violation of 
campaign rules and that he had reported the PRD's findings to 
the OAS representative here.  (Note: The OAS replied that 
they would forward the information to their headquarters and 
recommended that the PRD take the issue up with the Dominican 
Central Elections Board.) 
 
POINTING FINGERS 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) As part of its broad effort to portray the Fernandez 
administration as corrupt, the PRD recently alleged that the 
President violated the constitution in seeking a $130 million 
loan for public works.  The PRD alleges that the loan did not 
have the required approval of Congress and that it is unclear 
where the borrowed funds were allocated.  The opposition 
party provided reporters with documents related to the loan, 
a financial transaction which was handled by The Sun Land 
Corporation -- a U.S.-owned firm which is controversial 
because of suspicions (albeit unconfirmed) that its 
intermediary activity is designed to mask corruption.  In its 
response, the PLD states that the loan was perfectly legal 
and that the PRD had also used Sun Land when they held the 
presidency.  Civil society organizations, for their part, 
argued that both parties had violated the constitution by not 
seeking congressional approval for the loans. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Garcia, the PLD campaign director, told EMBOFFs he 
was surprised that the PRD was focusing on corruption as a 
campaign issue, considering what he described as the high 
levels of graft in the last PRD administration.  Garcia also 
told us that Vargas was vulnerable on the corruption issue, 
claiming that the party "has information" on the candidate's 
involvement with the Spanish citizens accused in the Marbella 
corruption scandal.  Finally, Garcia claimed that Vargas had 
declared assets of US$3 million upon entering the Mejia 
cabinet in 2000, and declared US$5 million when he left 
office.  How is it possible, the campaign director asked, for 
Vargas to have built a US$20 million home in the Casa de 
Campo resort during that time? 
 
THE WILD CARD 
------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Amable Aristy Castro, the candidate of the Social 
Christian Reform Party (PRSC), is the presidential race's 
wild card.  Aristy's party is badly split and in search of a 
strategy that will give them a legitimate chance of winning 
the election.  The PRSC went down to a humiliating defeat in 
the 2006 congressional elections after joining in a coalition 
with the PRD.  Polls show Amable with 8-to-14 percent of the 
vote, and much of that is in Altagracia, the candidate's home 
province.  Amable has gained headlines in recent days for his 
practice of handing out chickens and 100-peso notes at his 
campaign rallies.  The PRSC's goal is to deny its opponents 
an absolute majority and push the election to second round. 
Amable would then be in a position enter into negotiations 
over his endorsement for the two remaining candidates, in the 
hope of playing a powerbroker role. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The conventional wisdom here is that Fernandez will 
win re-election, but the polls numbers reveal a situation 
which is not so clear.  The President led his challenger by a 
range of only 3-to-7 percent in reliable polls from July and 
August.  And despite GDP growth forecast by the IMF at 8 
percent this year, opinion data shows several negative trends 
for the incumbent -- e.g. 40 percent of Dominicans believe 
the economy will improve next year, down from 50 a year ago; 
and, 36 percent believe the country is headed in the right 
direction, down from 46 last year.  Clearly the working class 
and poor -- the vast majority of poll respondents -- do not 
the view the strong economic growth as having positively 
affected their livelihood. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The PLD won resounding victories in the 2004 
presidential and 2006 legislative elections by running 
against the record of President Mejia and his PRD.  In 2008, 
a key question will be whether -- with a new PRD leader and 
the economic crisis six years in the past -- the Dominican 
voters hand the PLD another victory based on the PRD's 
troubled past, or whether they will now demand that the PLD 
be judged based on its own, mixed record of government. 
 
(U) This report and additional information can be found on 
Embassy Santo Domingo's SIPRNET site, 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/  
BULLEN