VZCZCXRO3948
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #3816 3041009
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 311009Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2483
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5007
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9316
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS PRETORIA 003816 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ANC DELEGATE DISTRIBUTION AND IMPACT 
 
REF: PRETORIA 3764 
 
¶1. (SBU) The ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) in 
September determined that the total number of voting 
delegates at the ANC's national conference in December will 
be 4,075, according to UNISA Professor Dirk Kotze, who said 
he received the breakdown from the ANC.  In accordance with 
the ANC's Constitution, 90 percent, or 3,675 delegates, will 
come from the almost 2,700 ANC branches in good standing as 
of June 30, 2007.  The remaining delegates include 66 NEC 
delegates (all 60 current NEC members plus the top six ANC 
Official Positions), 68 ANC Women's League delegates, 68 ANC 
Youth League delegates, and 22 delegates from each of the 
nine provinces.  (NOTE: The total number of delegates is 
higher than expected as ANC documents have consistently 
listed the maximum number of delegates for the 2007 
conference as 4,000.  END NOTE) 
 
¶2. (U) The number of branch-level delegates per province, 
ranked by size, is as follows: 
 
     -- Eastern Cape (906 delegates) 
     -- KwaZulu-Natal (608 delegates) 
     -- Limpopo (400 delegates) 
     -- Free State (363 delegates) 
     -- Gauteng (354 delegates) 
     -- Mpumalanga (325 delegates) 
     -- North West (280 delegates) 
     -- Northern Cape (220 delegates) 
     -- Western Cape (219 delegates). 
 
Delegates will be divided among the branches in a two-part 
process.  First, each branch in good standing will be 
allocated one delegate.  The remaining delegates will be 
divided among branches in the province in proportion to their 
membership.  In other words, because allocation is done in 
two stages (first to the province, then to the branches), the 
number of delegates each branch will be able to send is 
dependent on the size of the branch and the total number of 
members in the province. 
 
¶3. (U) When compared to 2002 figures, Eastern Cape and 
KwaZulu-Natal have maintained the number one and two spots as 
far as the number of voting delegates per province.  Free 
State has increased from 7th place to 4th, Limpopo has moved 
from 5th to 3rd, and the Northern Cape has moved from 9th to 
8th.  Provinces that lost rankings include Gauteng (from 3rd 
to 5th), Mpumalanga (4th to 6th), North West (6th to 7th), 
and Western Cape (8th to 9th).  When compared to provincial 
population figures as a whole, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free 
State, and Northern Cape will have a disproportionate 
influence, while the percentage of delegates allotted to 
KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo, and Western Cape reflects 
less than their proportion of the national population.  Only 
North West has seven percent of the population and seven 
percent of delegates. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Individual provincial delegations, ANC Leagues, and 
the NEC together will have less than 10 percent of the total 
delegates.  However, the ANCYL and ANCWL could have a 
disproportionate impact since some ANC branch delegates could 
also come from these leagues. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  It is impossible to predict the outcome of 
the ANC succession race based on distribution of delegates 
alone for two reasons: first, provinces do not vote as blocks 
and second, the branch-level nominations process has just 
gotten underway (reftel).  With the exception of 
KwaZulu-Natal, which is firmly behind ANC Deputy President 
Jacob Zuma, most provinces appear divided or undecided. 
Knowing the percentage of support each candidate has within a 
province would be helpful, but not conclusive.  Delegates 
"must be able to persuade as well as be persuaded," leaving 
Q"must be able to persuade as well as be persuaded," leaving 
the door open for unexpected results.  In previous party 
elections, when backroom deals produced an uncontested 
ballot, delegates' votes were pro-forma.  But in what is 
likely to be the most contested election in the ANC's 95-year 
history, the concept of "free agent delegate" may take on a 
whole new meaning.  For the first time, delegates will likely 
have to weigh a number of competing interests, including 
their conscience, morals, ethnicity, pocket books, personal 
aspirations, and calls for a united party. END COMMENT. 
BOST