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DE RUEHSA #3783 2991557
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R 261557Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2458
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5003
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9312
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RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS PRETORIA 003783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS ZUMA EMERGING AS TOP PRESIDENTIAL 
CONTENDER 
 
 
¶1. (U) ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma came in first place 
when 2,000 adults were asked, "Who do you think will succeed 
President Mbeki in 2009?", according to a poll released by 
TNS Surveys on 25 October.  Zuma came out heads above the 
others, receiving 27 percent of the vote.  Deputy President 
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka came in a distant second with only ten 
percent of the vote.  Filling out the top five were President 
Mbeki (who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third 
term) with eight percent, Cyril Ramaphosa with seven percent, 
and Tokyo Sexwale with six percent.  Of the next five 
contenders, three were not even ANC members, indicating some 
respondents do not understand how the country chooses its 
President.  Democratic Alliance (DA) Leader Helen Zille 
received four percent, Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana 
Dlamini-Zuma received three percent, and Finance Minister 
Trevor Manuel, Independent Democrats Leader Patricia de 
Lille, and former DA Leader Tony Leon each received two 
percent of the vote.  Twenty-six percent of respondents did 
not know.  Respondents were also asked, "Who would you like 
to succeed President Mbeki?" with almost identical responses. 
 
¶2. (U) Thirty-eight percent of respondents agreed to the 
statement "South Africa will not be ready for a female 
President when President Thabo Mbeki steps down."  This shows 
a slight warming to the idea.  In September 2006, 48 percent 
of people agreed with the statement.  Black males agreed 
most, with 47 percent, while only 33 percent of both black 
and white females agreed that the country is not ready. 
 
¶3. (U) Though a quarter of those polled believe Zuma will 
become President, nearly half (48 percent) agreed that this 
would "bring disaster to South Africa."  While significant, 
the number of respondents in 2006 who agreed with this 
statement was 58 percent.  However, it is important to note 
that this sentiment was not shared equally among races. 
Indian or Asians were the most pessimistic with 81 percent of 
respondents agreeing that a Zuma presidency would be 
disastrous, 78 percent of coloured respondents felt it would 
be, and 69 percent of whites felt it would be.  Only 33 
percent of blacks agreed.  Responses also varied dramatically 
between provinces, with Cape Town being the most pessimistic 
-- 73 percent of respondents felt SA would be worse off, 
while Durban was the least pessimistic with only 36 percent 
of inhabitants predicting disaster. 
 
¶4. (U) TNS Surveys conducted the survey during face-to-face 
interviews in the first half of September.  Respondents are 
from Gauteng province (Johannesburg, Soweto, East, South, and 
West Rand, Pretoria, and Vaal Triangle), Western Cape (Cape 
Town), KwaZulu-Natal (Durban), Eastern Cape (East London and 
Port Elizabeth), and Free State (Bloemfontein.)  No polling 
was done in North West, Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, and 
Limpopo provinces.  The 2,000 respondents included 1,260 
blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds, and 115 Indians/Asians. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  Mission cautions against drawing too many 
conclusions from this snapshot poll, especially in connection 
with the ANC party election in December.  The poll likely 
reflects Zuma's political momentum, as much as the negative 
public criticism of Mbeki, in the past few weeks.  However, 
South Africa's next President will be chosen by the ruling 
party in Parliament (inevitably the ANC) in 2009, not by the 
man on the street and definitely not by those who are not 
Qman on the street and definitely not by those who are not 
members of the ANC.  In this sense, public opinion is less 
revealing in South Africa than in many other countries.  END 
COMMENT. 
BOST