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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #3764/01 2981443
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251443Z OCT 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2426
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 4992
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9300
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003764 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ANC NOMINATIONS PROCESS OUTLINED 
 
REF: A. 06 PRETORIA 2545 
 
     ¶B. PRETORIA 3328 
 
PRETORIA 00003764  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) The ANC unveiled in detail on 17 October the mechanics 
of the nomination process leading up to the party's 52nd 
National Conference 16-20 December (see www.anc.org.za).  ANC 
branches, ANC provincial general councils, the ANC Women's 
League, and the ANC Youth League will all meet between now 
and 26 November to nominate candidates for what the ANC calls 
"Official Positions": President, Deputy President, National 
Chairperson, Secretary General, Deputy Secretary General, and 
Treasurer General.  Candidates for the 60-member National 
Executive Committee (NEC) will also be selected.  The list 
for the NEC must include at least one-third women, but there 
is no such requirement for the top six official positions. 
(NOTE: Mission will transmit a separate message on delegate 
distribution and selection.  END NOTE) 
 
------------------------- 
STRICT OVERSIGHT PROVIDED 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The NEC has appointed Henry Makgothi, Ruth Mompati, 
Mochubela Seekoe, Laloo Chiba, Ben Turok, Benson Fihla, Essop 
Jassat, Bertha Gxowa, Rosalia Morutuoa, Makho Njobe, Rashaka 
Ratshitanga, and Gertrude Shope as members of the Electoral 
Commission (EC) in accordance with Rule 14 of the ANC 
Constitution.  Ebrahim Fakir of Center for Policy Studies 
told PolOff that the NEC purposefully selected older ANC 
stalwarts, known for being independent thinkers.  EC members 
cannot make themselves available for election.  An 
independent electoral agency -- press reports describe it as 
a capacity building NGO -- also has been appointed to oversee 
(in conjunction with the EC) the final elections in December. 
 
 
------------------------- 
BRANCH NOMINATION PROCESS 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The 2,700 ANC branches in good standing as of 30 June 
2007 will hold branch general meetings to decide on their 
preferred candidates for each of the six leadership slots 
(Ref B).  A series of votes will be held until only two 
candidates remain for each position, at which time branch 
members will vote again with the candidate receiving more 
than 50 percent of the votes winning the nomination. 
Branches also nominate up to 60 names for the NEC.  Only 
those candidates who receive more than 50 percent of the vote 
will be nominated.  Completed branch nominations are placed 
in sealed envelopes and placed in a sealed box at the 
provincial office. 
 
---------------------- 
PROVINCIAL NOMINATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Provinces will hold Provincial General Councils 
(PGCs) to consolidate and finalize nominations after branches 
have met.  Delegates to the PGC should be the same delegates 
who will go on to vote at the national conference.  The 
process will begin after the independent agency and 
provincial monitors open the sealed boxes containing branch 
nominations and count all ballots for both Official Positions 
and the NEC.  According to the ANC, "the provincial 
nominations process will be based on a democratic process 
that uses the branch nominations as a basis."  For example, 
for the NEC, the top 60 names should automatically become the 
provincial nominees.  However, PGC delegates may add or 
delete names "that would enhance representivity or other 
leadership criteria" for the NEC provided 50 percent of 
delegates agree to the change, and for the top six positions 
provided, 25 percent of delegates must agree. Voting will be 
done by secret ballot. 
 
Q 
-------------------------------- 
GENDER PARITY NOT MANDATORY, YET 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) According to the ANC's current constitution, the NEC 
candidate list must include at least one-third females.  If 
not, the top 20 females will be added to the list, regardless 
of their overall ranking.  There is no such criteria for the 
top six leadership positions, which are currently held 
entirely by men.  (NOTE: During the ANC's policy conference 
in June 2007, it was widely agreed that the party would amend 
the constitution to allow for gender parity in all ANC 
 
PRETORIA 00003764  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
structures, but this will not affect the current election. 
END NOTE) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
YOUTH AND WOMEN'S LEAGUES QUASI-PROVINCE WITH MORE VOTES 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶6. (U) The nomination process by the ANC Women's League and 
ANC Youth League follows the same procedure as above, but 
with National League Nominations Conferences taking the place 
of Provincial Nominations Conferences.  The Youth League and 
Women's League each will have 68 voting delegates to the 
National Conference, whereas provinces will send 22 delegates 
each (septel).  The remaining 3,675 delegates will come from 
branches. 
 
------------------- 
NATIONAL CONFERENCE 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Between 26 November, when provincial and League 
nominations are due, and 14 December, the real horsetrading 
process will begin, according to UNISA Professor Dirk Kotze. 
The independent agency and the EC will compile the top 200 
candidates for the NEC (providing for 33% women) and the top 
three names for each of the Official Positions.  Candidates 
may be nominated for more than one position.  New names may 
be added to a ballot during the conference provided the 
nomination is supported by 25 percent of delegates (i.e., at 
least 1,000 delegates).  New candidates for the NEC may also 
be added not to exceed two additional persons per province. 
 
¶8. (U) Delegates will be notified of the ballot on the first 
day of the conference.  Delegates "are not bound by their 
branch, province, or League and who may be influenced by 
debates and other nominations that occur at the conference." 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) It is impossible to predict how the election will 
turn out based on process alone.  The fact that provincial 
delegates can override branch wishes could benefit President 
Mbeki slightly since he controls many of the provincial 
structures.  However, voting delegates are free to both 
nominate from the floor and vote independently of their 
branch, province, or League, which could neutralize this 
advantage.  Regardless, it appears that both Mbeki and ANC 
Deputy President Jacob Zuma will likely appear on the final 
ballot.  With the Electoral Commission stacked with respected 
ANC stalwarts, combined with the outside monitoring agency, 
the actual election also will most likely be free.  However, 
what will influence the outcome the most is the 
behind-the-scenes horsetrading -- what will be promised or 
threatened and by whom -- that will ensue between 26 November 
and 15 December. 
BOST