VZCZCXRO0851
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHSP #1077/01 2992029
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 262029Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8751
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3712

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI TD
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: TEN DAYS TO GO 
 
 SENSITVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Trinidad and Tobago's citizens are 
experiencing high intensity campaigning with only ten days 
until the elections, and seem convinced that this vote will 
have long-lasting implications.  The ruling People's National 
Movement (PNM) seems confident of victory and a growing 
number of pundits agree this is the most likely election 
outcome.  The two opposition parties, the Congress of the 
People (COP) and the United National Congress-Alliance 
(UNC-A), continue fighting each other as much as the PNM. 
Both publicly and privately still express the expectation 
they will emerge victorious on November 5, though the UNC 
implies it might squeak to a majority while the COP predicts 
it will either win big or lose big.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Dirty Politicking or Politicking As Usual? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) As the election clock winds down, claims of &dirty 
politicking8 are heating up.  Police Commissioner Trevor 
Paul has made public appeals for a clean campaign.  Though 
the level of mischief so far is actually low, what has 
occurred has gotten major media play.  COP candidate Marlene 
Coudray,s campaign office, for example, was vandalized and 
PNM loyalists supposedly did not allow her to distribute 
campaign flyers.  In an October 25 meeting with Poloffs, 
another COP candidate said some PNM loyalists living in 
government-built housing projects actually confronted Coudray 
with guns and refused to allow her to enter their 
neighborhood. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The COP is not the only victim, though, as a few 
PNM billboards have been destroyed and UNC offices 
vandalized.  For his part, Prime Minister Patrick Manning 
suggests the occasional incidents are a result of the 
infighting between the COP and the UNC.  Others have 
downplayed these reports, noting that these could easily have 
just been criminal acts in a society suffering under the 
weight of rampant crime. 
 
---------------------------- 
Running on Two Citizenships? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Another issue that has arisen involves whether a 
couple of UNC candidates are eligible to stand for election 
since they enjoy dual-citizenship ) one from the U.S. and 
the other from the UK.  Section 48 (1) of the TT constitution 
states that no person who has sworn a voluntary allegiance to 
another country shall be eligible to hold a seat in the House 
of Representatives.  The two candidates argue that they had 
no control over where they were born and received passports 
of those other nations as children and, as such, they should 
not be penalized.  In a meeting with Poloffs, a noted 
election analyst pointed out that one of the questioned UNC 
candidates is running in the same constituency (district) as 
COP leader Winston Dookeran.  If opposition voters don't see 
this UNC candidate as legitimate (and the COP has been 
running ads telling people not to waste their votes on him), 
they might throw their support to Dookeran.  The &pin 
action8 on this might even spread to other marginal 
districts, the analyst suggested, since opposition voters who 
wondered whether Dookeran could win a seat could take heart 
from this turn of events and stay loyal (or move to) the COP. 
 (Note:  A similar issue involving two MPs with dual 
citizenship arose in 2001.  The MPs lost their local case, 
but appealed to the Privy Council.  The matter was rendered 
moot, though, when parliament dissolved before the case could 
be heard.) 
 
---------------------------- 
New Voters, New Allegiances? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) All three parties are courting the votes of women 
and youth.  For the first time in election history, 
registered women voters (slightly) outnumber men.  In 
addition, the PNM and UNC have hosted concerts to attract 
youth voters and the COP developed a youth manifesto (all 
three parties are finally unveiling their platforms after a 
long delay).  Some analysts have posited that a large youth 
turnout would favor the COP, the self-declared party of 
change. 
 
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Comment: What Will Be the Outcome? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) As candidates head into the final week of 
 
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campaigning, it is still difficult to predict the outcome of 
the election, though the PNM remains the favorite and 
increasingly so among most pundits.  Manning has toned down 
his triumphalist rhetoric, though, which was not playing 
well, but also conceivably could have encouraged complacency 
among PNM voters.  A high-PNM official, though, told us this 
week that the party will win at least 26 seats and went so 
far as to invite us to his victory &lime8 (party; we 
politely declined). 
 
¶7. (SBU) The race is not in the bag, however, given the 
vagaries of politics, mixed and unreliable polling, and the 
fact that the combined opposition vote probably exceeds the 
PNM vote.  If the COP can ride the wave it predicts is 
building and drive the UNC into a distant third place, it 
could surprise.  According to some election analysts to whom 
we spoke, as well as many COP insiders, it is plausible the 
COP could win the election or take no seats at all.  The 
party says for this wave to crest on election day, it will 
need a large voter surge (beyond the normal mid- to high-60 
percent turnout).  The UNC, for its part, is banking on its 
traditional voters staying loyal or returning to the fold on 
November 5 and it squeaking through to victory. 
KUSNITZ