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DE RUEHOT #1928/01 2902257
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 172257Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6723
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0134
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0808
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001928 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA AF
SUBJECT:  HARPER GOVERNMENT TO SURVIVE THRONE SPEECH 
 
REF:  A.  Ottawa 1924 
 
-         B.  Ottawa 1910 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  The Liberal leadership will not seek to bring 
down the Harper government over the contents of the October 16 
Throne Speech, recognizing election fatigue among the voters.  The 
Liberals have charged that the government's comments on Afghanistan 
were nonetheless too ambiguous, while saying that they could accept 
a true training role -- but not a combat mission -- for Canadian 
troops after 2009.  They will offer an amendment to the Speech that 
insists on adherence to Kyoto Convention objectives and clarifies 
the nature of Canada's military role in Kandahar, among other 
issues.  The government is unlikely to accept any substantive 
amendment from the Liberals, however.  The next test of the 
government is likely to come -- sooner rather than later -- with the 
introduction of the government's omnibus crime bill.  End summary. 
 
ROUND ONE TO THE GOVERNMENT 
-------  -------------  --------------  ------------ 
 
¶2. (U) In the formal Opposition response on October 17 to the 
government's second "Speech from the Throne" at the outset of the 
new session of Parliament (reftels), Liberal leader Stphane Dion 
admitted that the electorate did not support new elections after 
having gone through three national elections in three years, as well 
as several provincial elections and a few by-elections.  He claimed 
that the idea of trying to bring down the Harper government over the 
contents of the Throne Speech and hold new elections in the near 
future  was "too much in the eyes of Canadians."  Instead, Dion 
announced that the Liberals will register their dissent by proposing 
a substantive amendment that calls upon the government to change its 
"weak approach" on climate change to allow Canada to catch up on 
Phase II of its Kyoto commitments, to announce the combat mission in 
Kandahar will end in February 2009 or morph into a purely training 
role, to take action on poverty, to reduce corporate taxes, and to 
rescind its decision on income trusts.  However, the Liberal caucus 
will apparently abstain both on the amendment itself and on the 
final vote approving the Speech, thereby allowing the government to 
survive its first vote of confidence in the current session. 
(Alternatively, the government could conceivably strike a compromise 
with the Liberals and accept at least some of the Liberal amendment 
in a face-saving gesture.)  Dion emphasized that the Liberals are 
determined to "make Parliament work in accordance with the wishes of 
the Canadian people" but swore that the Conservatives "will never 
form a majority government." 
 
MOST PROBLEMATIC ISSUES 
---------  --------------  --------------- 
 
¶3. (U) In his remarks in Parliament on October 17, Dion claimed that 
the Speech displayed "disconcerting" and deliberate ambiguity on the 
future of Canada's mission in Kandahar province, which he described 
as a counterinsurgency operation, beyond February 2009.  Dion said 
Liberals could likely accept reconfiguration of the mission to a 
purely training role, and complained that the government had already 
pre-empted the work of the new non-partisan advisory panel on 
Afghanistan by stating in the Speech that it wanted the mission to 
continue to train the Afghan police and army until 2011.  He 
insisted that the government inform NATO allies and the Afghan 
government that the combat mission will end in 2009.  Dion also 
Qgovernment that the combat mission will end in 2009.  Dion also 
charged that the Harper government had turned its back on Africa and 
on the crisis in Darfur, and insisted that the government's claim 
that "Canada is back" was "absurd" and untrue. 
 
 
¶4. (U) On provisions to revise the Anti-Terrorism Act, Dion again 
complained the Speech was too vague, and warned the government "not 
to play politics" on the issue.  He urged the government to accept 
earlier recommendations on this legislation from the Commons and the 
Senate.  With respect to strengthening the Canadian federation, Mr. 
Dion said Liberals would work to promote the wise use of the federal 
spending power but "would not allow this Prime Minister to build a 
federalism of firewalls" to divide Canadians.  On the economy, he 
criticized lack of action on promoting economic innovation, 
competitiveness, and productivity, on meeting challenges in the 
manufacturing sector and from emerging economies, and on resolving 
the softwood lumber dispute.  He lamented a "missed opportunity" and 
incompetence in implementation over the past nineteen months on 
climate change, and pledged that Liberals will continue to push for 
Canada to meet objectives in phase II of the Kyoto Protocol. 
 
 
SOME FAINT PRAISE 
------- --------- ------------ 
 
 
OTTAWA 00001928  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (U) Dion that the Liberals themselves are "tough on crime" and 
indicated that the party might possibly support the proposed Omnibus 
Crime Bill, depending on its exact contents.  He noted that the 
Liberals had supported five of the six government bills in the 
previous session on crime, none of which passed both Houses.  He 
offered measured praise for the government's willingness to expand 
the scope of the Official Languages Act, its attention to the Arctic 
-- especially plans to build a world-class Arctic research station 
and complete mapping of the Arctic seabed (while criticizing the 
government for not developing small ports in this region) -- and its 
plan to continue modernizing the Canadian Forces (while charging 
that the government relied too extensively on non-tendered bids). 
He expressed unqualified support for the proposal to confer honorary 
Canadian citizenship on Aung San Suu Kyi. 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Comment:  With the government set now to survive a vote 
of confidence by October 24 on the Throne Speech, all political eyes 
are on the next (of perhaps many) vote of confidence that the 
minority government must face, which will likely come later this 
year.  Prime Minister Harper has already made clear that the first 
priority legislation to run this gauntlet will be the Omnibus Crime 
Bill, without specifying yet how quickly he would expect this to 
make its way through Parliament or how much flexibility the 
government would ultimately show in altering its draft to respond to 
Liberal and other comments. 
WILKINS