Amy Marie Newcomb  01/22/2008 04:32:37 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  ECO-POLShare

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UNCLAS    SENSITIVE     NICOSIA 00855

SIPDIS
CXNICOSI:
    ACTION: DCM EXEC
    INFO:   DAO RAO ECON POL

DISSEMINATION: EXEC
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB:RSCHLICHER
DRAFTED: POL:AMYIALLOUROU
CLEARED: DCM:JZIMMERMAN; POL:GMACRIS

VZCZCNCI026
RR RUEHC RUEHZL RUCNDT RUEHBS
DE RUEHNC #0855/01 2990927
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260927Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8267
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0981
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000855 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS 2008:  MECHANICS AND PROCESS 
 
Reference:  06 Nicosia 1964 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  Cypriots will go to the polls on February 17 to 
elect their president.  With three strong candidates in the race, it 
is doubtful that one of them will tally the required 50 
percent-plus-one to win outright, forcing a February 24 runoff. 
Historically, successful candidates have enjoyed first-round backing 
from either Communist AKEL or conservative DISY, each party 
commanding one-third of the electorate.  This race is different, 
however, since both AKEL (for the first time ever) and DISY are 
sponsoring challengers against incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos. 
Polling results vary according to which party sponsored the count, 
but all show less than four points separating the leading and 
third-place candidates.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
How the Game is Played 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Presidential elections in Cyprus are held every five years. 
According to the 1960 Constitution, the President should be a Greek 
Cypriot elected directly by the Greek Cypriot community (the 
Constitution provides for the simultaneous election of a Turkish 
Cypriot Vice President, but the position has remained vacant since 
the onset of inter-communal clashes in 1963).  The presidential 
candidate who receives more than fifty percent of the vote wins 
office.  If none attains the requisite majority, a runoff election 
takes place the following week between the two top vote-getters. 
Next year's elections are scheduled for February 17 and 24, with the 
presidential investiture slated for February 29. 
 
¶3.  (U) Voting is mandatory for all eligible Greek Cypriots over 18 
(Turkish Cypriots residing in the government-controlled areas may 
also vote).  Not registering in the electoral roll, or not voting 
without a valid reason is a criminal offense punishable by up to six 
months imprisonment and/or a fine of 200 Cyprus pounds 
(approximately USD 485).  In practice, however, authorities do not 
exercise these provisions.  The projected number of voters in the 
February election is 520,000.  Of those, some 27,000 are new voters 
between the ages of 18 and 30 who have so far failed to register. 
The Electoral Service of the Ministry of Interior has sent them 
letters informing them of their obligations, and all major parties 
are working to gain their support. 
 
¶4.  (U) On election day (always a Sunday), polling stations open at 
07:00 and close at 17:00.  Ballots are counted by hand and the 
president of the polling station transmits the results via e-mail to 
the central election service in Nicosia.  The Election Service of 
the Ministry of Interior expects to have a reliable projection of 
the results by 19:30. 
 
¶5.  (U) By law, campaigning stops at midnight of the preceding 
Friday, and the publication of opinion polls is prohibited for the 
entire week before the election.  Exit poll results can be announced 
immediately after the closing of polling stations, however. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Historical Background and Current Situation 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Next February's vote will mark the eleventh presidential 
election in the brief history of the Republic of Cyprus.  Only five 
chief executives have governed since independence:  Archbishop 
Makarios (1959-1977), DIKO leader Spyros Kyprianou (1977-1988), 
independent George Vassiliou (1988-1993), DISY leader Glafcos 
Clerides (1993-2003), and incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos. 
Papadopoulos won office in via an alliance of his own party, DIKO, 
plus AKEL and socialist party EDEK. 
 
¶7.  (U) In the post-Makarios era, the support of one of the two 
major parties, AKEL or DISY, was a sine qua non for the success of a 
presidential candidate.  The two parties, which represent 
approximately one-third of the electorate each, possess strong 
mechanisms which enable them to rally the support of the bulk of 
their followers at every election.  However, the strong public and 
media support for incumbent Papadopoulos' Cyprus problem policy 
presents a difficulty that the two parties never have had to 
confront before.  Surveys conducted in September and October show 
Papadopoulos continuing to hold a slim lead over challengers 
Dimitris Christofias (AKEL) and Ioannis Kasoulides (DISY), with 
roughly four percentage points separating them. 
 
¶8.  (U) Papadopoulos is supported by a coalition incorporating DIKO, 
EDEK, the European Party (EUROKO), as well as a few other smaller 
political groups and organizations united in their opposition to the 
2004 Annan Plan and similar, "unfair" Cyprus reunification efforts. 
Based on the May 2006 parliamentary election results, the 
coalition's combined electoral strength amounts to one-third of the 
electorate, roughly equaling the DISY and AKEL haul. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Over the next four months, the presidential candidates 
will develop and promote platforms containing planks on the economy, 
crime, education, and other matters affecting day-to-day Cypriot 
life.  And voters will ignore them.  Two factors ultimately will 
determine who advances into the second round:  "syspeirosy," best 
defined as a mixture of party cohesion and high turnout, and the 
individual candidate's success in convincing the electorate that 
he's most fit to manage the Cyprus Problem. 
 
SCHLICHER