VZCZCXRO9418
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1554/01 2791307
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 061307Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8708
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001554 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, AND AF/SE 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SPLM TELLS S/E NATSIOS NCP IMMUNE TO PRESSURE, IN 
FIRM CONTROL 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 01479 
 
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Summary 
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1,. (SBU) Immune to pressure from the international 
community, the National Congress Party (NCP) remains in firm 
control of Sudan, is not interested in resolving the Darfur 
conflict prior to elections, and is stalling implementation 
of the CPA, five senior leaders of the Sudan People's 
Liberation Movement (SPLM) told S/E Natsios in Khartoum. 
They said that the NCP is operating from a position of 
relative strength with no widespread violence outside Darfur 
and has launched an offensive against the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement (CPA).  In the absence of a holistic, consistent, 
and coordinated international strategy for the transformation 
of Sudan, the SPLM will concentrate on building the party and 
military.  S/E Natsios noted recent international efforts to 
re-focus attention on the CPA and provide incentives for the 
NCP's cooperation.  While characterizing the NCP as unstable, 
CDA Fernandez said that any improvement in U.S.-Sudan 
relations could only be tied to concrete steps and that the 
U.S. maintained the ability to exert pressure on the regime. 
End summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
NCP "Immune" to Western Pressure 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In an October 3 meeting with S/E Natsios, Minister 
of Cabinet Affairs Deng Alor, Minister of Humanitarian 
Affairs Kosti Manibe, Minister of Transport, Roads, and 
Bridges Kuol Maniang Jak, SPLM Deputy Secretary General for 
the Northern Sector Yassir Arman, and Blue Nile State 
Governor Malik Agar said that the NCP is now immune to 
pressure from the international community.  The regime 
remains in firm control of Sudan, is not interested in 
resolving the Darfur conflict prior to elections in 2009, and 
is stalling implementation of the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement (CPA).  "We have reached a point where we have to 
make some tough decisions," said Alor on the eve of an SPLM 
Politburo meeting in Juba scheduled to begin October 4.  He 
added that the SPLM needs to consider what pressure it could 
bring to bear on the regime.  Arman noted the lack of a 
"holistic, coordinated approach (by the international 
community) to bring an endgame to the transformation of 
Sudan." 
 
------------------------------------------ 
CPA Caused Crack but Regime Remains Strong 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Playing the "devil's advocate," Arman argued that 
the NCP was in a better position than before signing the CPA 
because of the absence of fighting in Southern Sudan, the 
Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, and Eastern Sudan.  He said that 
it is important to "take the NCP as they are, without 
exaggerating their strengths or weaknesses."  While the CPA 
had made a crack in the essentially totalitarian nature of 
the regime, the NCP is benefiting from an internal situation 
where no alternative to its rule existed.  Oil is flowing 
northward, the NCP maintains "strategic pockets" in Southern 
Sudan, and Khartoum is "making a full offensive against the 
CPA," said Arman.  As examples of the NCP's bold action, he 
cited the break-down of the Assessment and Evaluation 
Commission (AEC), the slow pace of civil service integration, 
and the NCP's refusal to allow First Vice President Kiir to 
reshuffle the cabinet ministers in posts designated to the 
SPLM (reftel).  "These are not indications of weaknesses," 
said Arman.  "To me, these are indications of strength." 
 
--------------------------- 
Strategy to Break Sanctions 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Maniang said the NCP strategy to break free of 
sanctions had been to turn East to China, Malaysia and other 
Asian countries for economic access and then to show the West 
that it is missing important commercial opportunities in 
Sudan.  President Omar Al Bashir's recent trip to Rome, "the 
center of Christendom," was the opening salvo of this 
conscious strategy--an attempt to create a domino effect by 
luring Italian, and then more European, investment to Sudan. 
"If the Italians come, that will be a dismantling of the 
 
KHARTOUM 00001554  002 OF 003 
 
 
sanctions," said Maniang, who claimed that NCP officials had 
described this tactic to him when he was previously scheduled 
to accompany Bashir.  The SPLM had attempted to cooperate 
with the NCP in the last few months, explained Maniang, but 
the regime had exploited it.  Concurring with Alor, Maniang 
said that the SPLM Politburo would now discuss how the party 
could go on the "offensive." 
 
----------------------------------- 
International Pressure Inconsistent 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Inconsistent relations between the international 
community, including the U.S., and Khartoum exacerbated the 
problem, complained Agar.  "During the war in the South, the 
international community came up with carrots and sticks," he 
said.  "That stick never falls on any heads and then it turns 
into a carrot.  And then, when it's frustrated again, it goes 
back into a stick.  You never know what it really is." 
Khartoum was "not interested" in resolving the Darfur 
conflict or implementing the CPA because it knew the 
international community would "never tighten the bolt."  "We 
thought the bolt had tightened," said Agar, alluding to U.S. 
sanctions in May, "but now the international community 
already changed its tune." 
 
¶6. (SBU) Arman emphasized that the NCP was "not stupid" and 
closely followed international events, such as the war in 
Iraq, the looming conflict between the West and Iran, and the 
2006 Israeli war against Hezbollah as "part of the 
equation"--all of which they believed had seriously weakened 
the U.S.  If the NCP was panicking, it would strive for good 
relations with the SPLM and the U.S., but "I don't believe 
this is the situation," said Arman.  The SPLM's response 
would be to build the party and the military, regardless of 
the international community's actions.  He urged the U.S. to 
keep one eye on Darfur and one eye on the CPA because they 
were intrinsically linked.  "There will be no election 
without Darfur," said Arman. 
 
-------------------------- 
West Re-Focusing on CPA... 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) S/E Natsios explained that the international 
community is broadening its focus from Darfur to Southern 
Sudan, and, during a ministerial-level meeting in New York on 
September 21, "the Western democracies had set up a process 
to mobilize on the CPA."  He characterized the NCP as "losing 
control," saying that on his recent trip to Darfur he had 
seen that Khartoum's support among its core "constituents," 
such as the Northern Rizeigat, had eroded.  The Misseriya had 
begun to fight the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and nations 
such as China and Saudi Arabia were ambivalent and pressing 
Sudan to fulfill its international commitments.  As the NCP's 
position weakened, it had become a "bully," said S/E Natsios, 
remarking that weaker governments tended to become more 
aggressive.  He maintained that while the NCP did want to 
hold elections and "win," it was limiting implementation of 
the CPA "to make its election strategy easier." 
 
------------------------------------ 
...And Willing to Provide Incentives 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) The NCP sought an improved relationship with the 
U.S., said S/E Natsios, and after using pressure to achieve 
the USG's aims on Darfur, the U.S. was prepared to provide 
incentives for NCP cooperation on CPA implementation.  The 
U.S. remains skeptical about the NCP's intentions, and he 
admitted that such incentives could fall on deaf ears among 
the regime's hard-liners.  The NCP had "seriously" 
miscalculated in believing that outreach to Italy would 
change its international standing, noting that Italy had no 
influence on Sudan policy or sanctions.  CDA Fernandez said 
that while the U.S. had told the NCP that the possibility of 
improved relations existed, it was tied to concrete issues 
such as a resolution to the Abyei dispute and the rapid and 
full deployment of the UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID).  He 
underscored that despite U.S. obligations in other parts of 
the world, the USG could take actions to chasten the Sudanese 
Government.  He encouraged the SPLM to forge greater party 
unity, political and military discipline and alliances with 
like-minded groups outside of Southern Sudan. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00001554  003 OF 003 
 
 
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Comment 
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¶9. (SBU) The grim tone and defiance of these senior SPLM 
leaders underscores the mood of the movement's leadership in 
the run-up to the SPLM Politburo meeting in Juba.  They are 
deeply concerned that the CPA, the cornerstone of a 
transformed and better Sudan, has succumbed to the NCP's 
favorite political game: the triumph of form and "process" 
over substance and reality.  Dismissive of some very real 
progress in CPA implementation, the SPLM's fears about the 
future now outweigh their hopes about the CPA.  End comment. 
 
¶10. (U) S/E Natsios cleared this message. 
FERNANDEZ