VZCZCXRO2032
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #1190/01 3021332
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291332Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1812
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001190 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: RPG OPPOSITION PARTY EAGER FOR ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. CONAKRY 1186 
     ¶B. CONAKRY 1146 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Leaders of the opposition Rally for the 
Guinean People (RPG) party told poloff that they are eager 
for legislative elections and see them as a viable mechanism 
for affecting political change.  Contacts were frustrated 
with election delays, but optimistic that elections could 
take place before June 2008.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Poloff met with two executive board members of the 
RPG opposition party on October 24:  Dr. Mohamed Diane and 
Ibrahima Khalil Keita.  Keita is also one of the twenty-five 
representatives appointed to the National Independent 
Electoral Commission (CENI).  Drawing most of its support 
from the Malinke ethnic group based in Upper Guinea, the RPG 
is considered a leftist opposition party. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The RPG is led by Alpha Conde, an intellectual 
political activist who left Guinea in 1956 to pursue an 
education in France.  He did not return to Guinea until 1991 
when he became involved in local politics.  Conde has been a 
contender in Guinea,s last two presidential elections, 
winning nearly 20% of the vote in 1993 and 16% in 1998. 
Shortly after the 1998 elections, he was arrested and charged 
with treason.  Conde was sentenced to five years in prison, 
but was released in 2001 under presidential pardon.  He then 
left for France and did not return to Guinea until 2005. 
Under Conde,s leadership, the RPG boycotted the 2002 
legislative elections, but did participate in Guinea,s 2005 
local elections during which they won the mayor positions in 
Kankan, Faranah and Kouroussa (Upper Guinea). 
 
------------------------------------ 
ELECTIONS ARE A MECHANISM FOR CHANGE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to Mohamed Diane, the RPG is eager for 
legislative elections and sees them as a viable mechanism for 
affecting political change.  However, Diane said that the 
government lacks the political will necessary to push the 
process forward.  &It starts all the way at the top,8 he 
said, &with (President) Conte,s refusal to sign 
administrative decrees,8 referring to delays in establishing 
the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI).  When 
asked whether Prime Minister Kouyate is also delaying 
progress on elections, Diane said the majority of the delays 
are coming from Conte,s political power base. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Diane suggested that Kouyate,s main problem is 
that his government is essentially blocked because Conte 
continues to maintain a tight hold on powers of state.  &If 
I were Kouyate, I would focus on holding elections because it 
is the one concrete thing the (Kouyate) government can do,8 
he said.   In addition, transparent elections will lend 
credibility to Kouyate,s government, he said. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Diane emphasized that despite the appointment of 
Kouyate,s consensus government, the underlying bureaucracy 
remains essentially unchanged.  He said that most bureaucrats 
are long-time supporters of Conte and the ruling Party for 
Unity and Progress (PUP).  &They should be replaced before 
we hold elections,8 he said, citing concerns about potential 
manipulation of election results by Conte,s cronies. 
 
---------------------- 
WE REQUESTED THE DELAY 
---------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In regard to the Ministry of Interior and 
Security,s (MIS) recent announcement that the government is 
halting all elections preparations until the establishment of 
the CENI, Diane said that this delay was actually at the 
request of all political parties.  In an October 12 meeting 
between Kouyate and political parties, representatives 
reportedly told Kouyate that they did not want to proceed 
further on elections without the CENI for fear of 
jeopardizing overall transparency.  At the same time, Diane 
said, the RPG is frustrated with the slow pace of election 
preparations.  &We wanted elections in December, but we 
recognize that that is now impossible.8 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
CENI LIKELY TO BE SET UP SOON, BUT NO BUDGET 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Diane was optimistic that the CENI would be 
 
CONAKRY 00001190  002 OF 002 
 
 
established soon, noting that Kouyate told parties that he 
would authorize the establishment of the CENI himself within 
two weeks if Conte did not sign the decree.  (COMMENT.  If 
Kouyate did say this, it would be surprising if he follows 
through since it could be seen as a public defiance of Conte 
and is inconsistent with Kouyate,s methods to date.  An EU 
contact told DCM that he had heard Kouyate make this promise 
as well.  END COMMENT.)  Diane said that if the CENI is not 
established by October 26, the RPG will publicly protest via 
official public statements. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Regarding the European Union,s elections 
assistance project for voter registration, Diane said that 
the RPG is frustrated that the Government of Guinea has not 
been more proactive.  &This is a great opportunity for us to 
have a valid voter list for the first time, not just for 
these elections, but for the presidential elections as 
well,8 he said. 
 
-------------------------- 
ELECTIONS POSSIBLE BY JUNE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) When asked about timing of elections, Diane said 
that once the CENI is in place, there is no reason that 
elections be delayed beyond June 2008.  Diane added that 
political parties will likely be ready to settle on a new 
elections date once the CENI is on board.  While Diane did 
not think the CENI representatives would have much difficulty 
electing a CENI president and members of the executive board, 
he said that there is currently no budget for the CENI. 
 
------------------------- 
ON POLITICAL ALLIANCES... 
------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Referring to other opposition parties, recent 
efforts to forge political alliances, Diane said that the RPG 
already has a solid alliance in place, but are open to 
additional alliances should an offer be made.  (NOTE.  The 
RPG is allied with several minor opposition parties.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Poloff,s discussion with RPG executive board 
members suggests that the party is supportive of Kouyate,s 
administration.  Although Kouyate has not made any public 
indication of his possible affiliation with any political 
party, both the press and a number of contacts have 
speculated that if Kouyate were to join an existing party, it 
could be the RPG.  Kouyate, a Malinke, comes from Kouroussa, 
which is a significant political support base for RPG.  END 
COMMENT. 
CARTER