VZCZCXRO9809
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #1146/01 2881506
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151506Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1759
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 001146 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GV
SUBJECT: UFDG SEEKS ALLIANCES WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES 
BEFORE ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Leaders of the extremist opposition 
party, Union Forces Democratic Guinean (UFDG), told poloff 
that they are seeking to ally with like-minded opposition 
parties in order to present a single candidate list for the 
upcoming legislative elections.  The UFDG commented on the 
Guinean Government,s lack of political will to conduct 
elections and detailed internal issues blocking the formal 
establishment of the National Independent Electoral 
Commission (CENI).  Pointing to a need for capacity building 
programs for political parties, the UFDG requested U.S. 
Government assistance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) On October 9, poloff met with three leaders of the 
opposition party UFDG including Elhadj Ba Mamadou Bhoye, 
President; Dr. Saliou Bela Diallo, Vice President; and Amadou 
Oury Bah, Secretary General. 
 
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BACKGROUND 
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¶3.  (SBU) As one of the five main opposition parties vying 
for power in the upcoming legislative elections, the UFDG 
draws its support largely from the Peuhl ethnic group based 
in Middle Guinea.  Ba Mamadou, party president, has been 
active in Guinean politics since independence.  He was forced 
to flee the country under Sekou Toure,s regime, during which 
time he spent six years in the U.S. working for the World 
Bank as well as some years in Cote d,Ivoire and France.  He 
returned to Guinea in 1987 after President Lansana Conte 
seized power.  He was initially close to Conte and drafted a 
number of speeches for him including a 1990 speech that was 
seen as Conte,s political roadmap.  Later, Ba Mamadou 
reportedly became disenchanted with Conte,s leadership and 
started opposition political activity and when political 
parties were legalized in 1996, created the UFDG.  The UFDG 
is now reportedly seen as an extremist opposition group, 
since it has repeatedly refused to negotiate or dialogue with 
the government. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) When asked about the UFDG,s current membership, Ba 
Mamadou said that it is difficult to get an exact number, but 
he estimates that they have between 200,000 and 300,000 
active members.  Amadou Bah, party secretary general, added 
that he estimates total potential voters for the UFDG in the 
upcoming elections at more than 2 million.  The UFDG did not 
participate in the last legislative elections in 2002. 
 
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LOOKING FOR ALLIANCES 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) According to Ba Mamadou, the UFDG is actively 
negotiating with a number of competing opposition parties in 
order to form alliances and/or merge parties before the 
elections.  Specifically, the UFDG is negotiating with the 
Union Party for Progress and Renewal (UPR), which is the 
other major opposition party representing a largely Peuhl 
ethnic base.  (Note ) The UPR is the only opposition party 
holding seats in the current National Assembly).  Ba Mamadou 
said they are also talking to Sidya Toure of the Union Force 
Republican (UFR) to see if they can identify a common 
platform.  The UFDG is also seeking the support of several 
minor opposition parties.  Ba Mamadou was noncommittal as to 
whether any of these alliances would solidify, but said that 
&it,s advancing, little by little.8 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In regards to recent press reports that former 
Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo has agreed to join the 
UFDG as its honorary party president, Ba Mamadou said that 
the press announcements were a bit premature.  He added that 
the UFDG is actively negotiating with Diallo, but that no 
formal agreement has been reached.  &Diallo has the choice 
between the UPR and the UFDG...we,re not sure who he will 
join,8 Ba Mamadou said. (COMMENT ) An unconfirmed October 
13 internet report indicated that Diallo may have officially 
joined the UFR). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) When asked about his vision for these alliances, Ba 
Mamadou said that the first objective is to present a 
unified, communal electoral list meaning that any allied 
parties would agree to jointly submit their candidates on one 
party ticket.  The second objective, Ba Mamadou said, is to 
have the allied parties designate the new President of the 
National Assembly, provided that the opposition wins.  Poloff 
asked Ba Mamadou if he intended for the alliance to continue 
after the election of the National Assembly President, a 
question he repeatedly evaded. 
 
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CONAKRY 00001146  002 OF 003 
 
 
CRITICISMS FOR KOUYATE 
---------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Ba Mamadou also commented on Prime Minister Lansana 
Kouyate,s possible political alliances, saying that he did 
not think Kouyate would align with the ruling Party for Unity 
and Progress.  However, &we don,t know what side Kouyate 
will be on,8 he said.  According to Ba Mamadou, Kouyate, a 
Malinke, will likely identify with the Guinea,s People Rally 
Party (RPG), which is an opposition party representing a 
largely Malinke ethnic base or with the newly formed 
Convergence Patriotic Guinean (CPG), which also appears to 
draw Malinke support. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Commenting on Kouyate,s government in general, Ba 
Mamadou said that &we are disappointed; we were fooled into 
thinking there was a willingness for change.8  He added that 
the UFDG was hoping for absolute neutrality from Kouyate, but 
instead found that his appointments of prefects and governors 
were biased, alluding to ethnic and regional favoritism. 
 
------------------------------------ 
POLITICAL WILL LACKING FOR ELECTIONS 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Turning to elections, Ba Mamadou said that the 
&population is the sole guarantee we have; the population 
will not tolerate election theft.8  At the same time, Ba 
Mamadou added that Guinea,s illiterate population can be 
fooled, especially in rural zones.  Ba Mamadou also commented 
on the government,s lack of progress, saying that there are 
a number of deputies within the National Assembly who are not 
in a hurry to hold elections because they know that it means 
they will be going home.  &Political will is lacking,8 he 
said.  &We know that the opposition is the new majority and 
if elections are transparent, we will win,8 he added. 
 
------------------------------- 
DELAYS IN ESTABLISHING THE CENI 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) When asked about delays in establishing CENI, Ba 
Mamadou said the initial delay was due to political 
disagreement over the ten opposition seats, led by Sidya 
Toure of the UFR.  That issue has since been resolved and the 
Ministry of Interior and Security (MIS) has all 25 names for 
the CENI, Ba Mamadou said.  &Everything is in place, but we 
still have no CENI.8  He added that the question of a 
presidential decree is the current stumbling block, referring 
to internal government debate as to whether President Conte 
must sign an official decree or whether the law deems the 
Commission official upon submission of the names to MIS. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Poloff asked whether there is a clear candidate to 
serve as President of the CENI, a position that the members 
of the CENI must elect.  Ba Mamadou said that Sidya Toure is 
pushing for Ben Syllah, the president of the National Council 
for Civil Society Organizations, but that the UFDG will not 
support him.  &He,s just a militant of the UFR, and anyway, 
he doesn,t have the majority support,8 he said.  Despite 
poloff pressing, Ba Mamadou was unwilling to suggest an 
alternate candidate.  He said &there are some people in 
mind, but there is no clear candidate; it,s going to take 
some time, but we have time because we are waiting for the 
decree to be signed.8  Ba Mamadou added that a majority vote 
will decide the position.  &We will know the president 
before we ever get to the room because we will have decided 
among ourselves before the vote is taken,8 he said.  NOTE ) 
There is some debate within the government as to whether the 
president is elected by majority or by consensus.  END NOTE. 
 
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WE NEED CAPACITY BUILDING 
------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Ba Mamadou criticized the U.S. Government,s 
funding of capacity building for civil society organizations 
through USAID, saying the U.S. Government has ignored 
political parties, which are also desperate for such 
assistance.  &How can you build democracy without supporting 
political parties?  We make democracy; we decide who 
participates in the electoral process,8 he said.  According 
to Ba Mamadou, the government relies on the political parties 
to educate the population regarding elections.  He said that 
he does not disagree with providing funding for civil society 
organizations, but that such funding is also needed for 
political parties.  &It needs to be coordinated,8 he said. 
 
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COMMENT 
 
CONAKRY 00001146  003 OF 003 
 
 
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¶14.  (SBU) While the UFDG has not actively started 
campaigning in the interior, the party appears to be 
mobilizing for elections as it actively seeks to ally with 
likely opposition partners.  Given that there are five 
opposition parties with significant support bases, it is 
possible that they could split the vote, thereby enabling the 
ruling PUP to maintain its control over the National 
Assembly.  An allied opposition would have a better chance of 
emerging victorious.  However, it is unclear whether any such 
alliance would endure past the election of the National 
Assembly President. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Embassy strongly supports the need for a capacity 
building program for political parties and has requested 
funding (reftel).  With the exception of the ruling PUP, few 
of the parties have campaign or governing experience.  The 
parties seem to lack vision and cannot define any political 
platform or agenda.  Contacts from all the major opposition 
parties are focused on elections, but have not expressed any 
clear program for governing the country should they gain 
control of the National Assembly.  END COMMENT. 
BROKENSHIRE