VZCZCXRO9752
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0654/01 2990326
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260326Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1309
INFO RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0860
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 5130
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1364

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000654 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PRM/ANE FOR MELISSA PITOTTI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: TRICKLE OF SRI LANKAN REFUGEES TO INDIA COULD BECOME FLOOD 
IF WAR BREAKS OUT IN NORTH 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The flow of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees to the south 
Indian state of Tamil Nadu has steadily declined to less than 200 a 
month.  But the situation could quickly reverse itself:  our 
contacts say that up to 50,000 refugees could arrive in India within 
a few months if war breaks out in northern Sri Lanka.  They are 
confident India can handle an influx of new refugees but note that 
it could cause political trouble for Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK party 
and, by extension, India's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 
coalition government in New Delhi.  END SUMMARY. 
 
REFUGEES ARRIVE IN SMALLER NUMBERS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to the Organization for Eelam Refugees 
Rehabilitation (OfERR), there are a total of 79,772 Sri Lankan 
refugees registered in camps in India.  Arrivals from Sri Lanka have 
steadily decreased in the past two years, with less than 200 Sri 
Lankan refugees reaching Indian shores in each of the past few 
months.  This is in sharp contrast to the situation in mid-2006 when 
thousands landed each month.   Figures for monthly refugee arrivals 
follow: 
 
2006 
 
May:    1456 
June:   1770 
July:    1822 
August:   5769 
September:  3794 
October:   750 
November:    364 
December:    319 
 
2007 
 
January:    412 
February:    890 
March:     524 
April:    339 
May:     286 
June:    279 
July:    193 
August:    105 
September:   159 
October (10/17) 138 
 
REFUGEES WILL FLOOD IF WAR BREAKS OUT IN THE NORTH 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (SBU) OfERR founder-treasurer S.C. Chandrahasan told Post that 
the situation will dramatically change if the government of Sri 
Lanka attacks the stronghold of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
in the north of the country.  He said that up to 50,000 refugees 
could land in Tamil Nadu within two to three months under such 
circumstances.  Chandrahasan was certain that Tamil Nadu's refugee 
camps could easily absorb the additional numbers.  But journalists 
pointed out that such a situation could be politically difficult for 
Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK.  News of a military attack in northern Sri 
Lanka coupled with a flood of refugees will likely stimulate 
sentiment in favor of Sri Lankan Tamils, leading to calls for the 
DMK use its influence as a member of the ruling UPA to have India 
pressure Sri Lanka to halt its offensive.  Regardless of the 
government of India's response, Tamil Nadu's opposition parties 
would no doubt demand that the DMK explain why it could not do more 
to stop the suffering of Tamils in Sri Lanka. 
 
REFUGEE ADVOCATES APPRECIATE USG INITIATIVE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Chandrahasan expressed great appreciation for the recent 
invitation for proposals for U.S. assistance funds to improve 
conditions at the Sri Lankan refugee camps.  He pointed out that 
water and sanitation are priority needs. He also urged the United 
States to be sensitive to the need to consider the overall local 
environment when evaluating the conditions in the camps.  The 
refugee camps are often located amidst impoverished Indian 
communities.  It is important, he said, not to squander the goodwill 
of Indian host communities by conspicuously widening the gap between 
the living conditions of the refugees and those of he poor Indian 
villagers in surrounding communites. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Heightened monitoring by oth the Indian and Sri 
Lankan navies and the thrat of impounding traffickers' boats have 
limited the flow of refugees to Tamil Nadu.  Despite these curbs, we 
will likely see a flood of refugees if the Sri Lankan army goes on 
the offensive in the north.  The refugee camps, civil society, and 
 
CHENNAI 00000654  002 OF 002 
 
 
Tamil Nadu's bureaucratic machinery can handle a heavy influx of 
refugees.  But such a flood will cause pressure to build on the DMK 
party to influence the UPA government in New Delhi to engage Sri 
Lanka.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶6.  This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. 
 
KAPLAN