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RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0629/01 2850523
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 120523Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1277
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2814
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0848
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 5118
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1362
RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IN
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL RULE IMPOSED IN KARNATAKA:  ADVANTAGE 
CONGRESS 
 
REF: A) CHENNAI 620 B) CHENNAI 611 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Pratibha Patel imposed direct rule over 
the southern Indian state of Karnataka on October 9, following the 
recommendation of the state's governor the day before.  The governor 
submitted his recommendation after the October 8 resignation of the 
Chief Minister (CM), which followed the collapse of the state's 
JD(S)-BJP coalition government (refs A and B).  The imposition of 
Presidential rule, which gives Karnataka's Congress-appointed 
governor the authority to run the state, must receive Lok Sabha 
approval, which should occur when it convenes in November.  Having 
been handed effective control of the state, Congress will try to use 
the situation to its advantage as it prepares for state elections in 
¶2008.  End summary. 
 
"Suspended animation" occurs not only in science fiction 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) President Patel signed an order on October 9 imposing 
Presidential rule in Karnataka, placing the state's governor, a 
Congress appointee, effectively in charge following the collapse of 
the state's JD(S)-BJP coalition government.  The order, approved 
earlier by the Union Cabinet, also reduced the state's legislature 
to a state of "suspended animation," allowing its members to 
continue to hold their seats, but preventing it from meeting in 
session.  (Patel also has the legal authority to dissolve the 
legislature.)  A Congress member of Karnataka's legislative assembly 
told us that these developments have unfolded "as expected." 
 
¶3. (U) The Lok Sabha must approve the imposition of Presidential 
rule, which should occur during its next session slated to begin in 
November.  The term of Presidential rule is six months, but the 
President can extend it, again subject to parliamentary approval. 
Should the end of the Indian fiscal year (March 31) occur during 
Presidential rule, the governor will have the authority to draft and 
pass the state's budget for the following year.  The state 
legislature can call for an end to Presidential rule if a party 
leader convinces the governor that he or she commands majority 
support. 
 
Timing is everything 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Our contacts tell us that early elections in Karnataka are 
likely (they are not required until 2009) and that Congress will try 
to time them to its advantage.  A Bangalore-based journalist told us 
that an election as early as December could favor the BJP by giving 
it the opportunity to benefit from voters' sympathy because of it 
shabby treatment at the hands of its JD(S) coalition partner.  He 
predicted, however, that this sympathy would dissipate by the 
spring, encouraging Congress to aim for an election around March 
¶2008. 
 
¶5. (SBU) A senior Karnataka bureaucrat told us that the state's 
Election Commission is currently updating its voter registration 
system, a process expected to reach completion only in January.  He 
said this would discourage elections from taking place until at 
least 45 days after the completion of the system, noting that this 
delay would "suit Congress very well." 
 
Former coalition partners continue to implode 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Bitter infighting within both the BJP and JD(S) threatens 
to hamper both parties' electoral futures.  Two prominent BJP 
members told us that some in the BJP continue to push for compromise 
with the JD(S), while others are too bitter about the party's 
treatment to consider another agreement with their former coalition 
partner.  One told us that the BJP's urban, middle-class supporters 
are "disgusted" by the thought of another compromise with the JD(S) 
simply to become part of the government again. 
¶7. (SBU) Caste politics threatens the cohesion of the JD(S), a party 
long dominated by the Vokkaliga, who reside mainly in southern 
Karnataka.  Many of the party's Lingayat caste members, who dominate 
northern Karnataka, criticize the decision to renege on the party's 
promise to give the position of Chief Minister (CM) to the BJP, 
whose candidate for the job was a Lingayat.  Congress is actively 
wooing these members to defect to its side, promising that its 
candidate for CM will be a Lingayat.  A JD(S) legislator (neither 
Lingayat nor Vokkaliga) told us that his party's Lingayat members 
"do not want to be seen as having stopped a Lingayat from becoming 
CM." 
 
Might direct rule help infrastructure problems? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
CHENNAI 00000629  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Some in Karnataka hope that Presidential rule might make 
infrastructure improvements easier to implement.  One journalist 
told us that the governor, unfettered by the political constraints 
of a typical CM, could choose to implement tough decisions on a 
variety of infrastructure projects.  He said that a tough 
administrator could have a lasting impact on the state's 
infrastructure, especially if his tenure lasted a full six months. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The collapse of the JD(S)-BJP coalition in Karnataka after 
20 months has handed effective control of the state to Congress, and 
we expect Congress to do its utmost to gain as much advantage as 
possible out of the situation.  By placing the state's legislature 
into "suspended animation" rather than dissolving it, President 
Patel has put Congress in the best possible position in Karnataka. 
Dissolving the legislature could have invited legal challenges. 
Allowing it to exist will serve as a constant reminder that both the 
BJP and JD(S) failed while providing an opportunity for Congress to 
woo enough JD(S) defectors to declare a majority. 
 
¶10. (SBU) However this situation plays itself out, we expect it will 
have little negative impact on U.S. business interests in Bangalore. 
 Should Presidential rule result in speedier implementation of 
much-needed infrastructure improvements, it might even be helpful. 
 
HOPPER