VZCZCXYZ0011
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2145/01 3031735
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301735Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9617
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002145 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; NEW ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT FOREIGN POLICY; 
LATIN AMERICA ARMS RACE; 10/30/07 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's key international stories include speculation about the 
newly elected Argentine Government's foreign policy; and an 
"emerging" arms race in Latin America. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "The US expects Cristina Kirchner's wink" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, daily-of-record "La Nacion's" Washington-based 
correspondent, comments (10/30) "Republicans and Democrats alike 
expect the first concrete "winks" from President-elect Cristina 
Kirchner in order to verify whether her actions will confirm the 
image she promoted during the election campaign, which was a more 
open, neat, moderate and internationalist image than that of her 
husband. 
 
"Yesterday at midday, the Bush administration congratulated her. 
Sean McCormack, chief spokesperson of the Department of State said: 
'We congratulated President-elect Kirchner for her election 
victory.' He added that the US expects to work with her 'on 
bilateral and regional issues.' 
 
"A US official source told 'La Nacion' that the ball is now in 
Argentina's court, and it added that the US expects to see the 
Argentine Government play the regional game in a different way, that 
is, to join Brazil and Mexico, and distance itself from Venezuelan 
President Hugo Chavez. 
 
"He insisted: 'We'll have to wait. One always has to go step by step 
with Argentina. We do not know how much the Government will change 
with Cristina. They sold a more open image of Cristina towards the 
US and the world, which will also be less dependent on Chavez, but 
we will have to wait.' 
 
"Since Deputy Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon took over two years 
ago, he has sought to build better bridges with the region, 
including Argentina, following the "short-circuits" with his 
predecessor, Roger Noriega. 
 
"However, the Bush administration wants to check her first speeches 
as President-elect, see how she will form her cabinet and get to 
know the first steps she will take. 
 
"Such is the Republican administration's cautiousness that it 
avoided making comments that could impact on the election campaign 
of recent weeks. This was made clear when the number three at the 
Department of State, Nicholas Burns, spoke about the region without 
referring to the country in his address to the Council of the 
Americas. 
 
"He said: 'We will work with every democratic government that wants 
to put aside the points of disagreement in order to meet shared 
goals. We do not subject our potential partners to an ideological 
test and we do not fear political disagreement.' He set as an 
example Washington's alliance with center-right leaders from Mexico 
and Colombia, and center-left leaders from Brazil and Chile." 
 
- (Argentine) foreign policy, experts recommend reaching out to the 
world" 
 
Walter Curia, political columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(10/30) "... Most analysts acknowledge the limitations of Kirchner's 
foreign policy. They agreed that it has largely been conditioned by 
the crisis and by the features of a president that was exclusively 
focused on the country's domestic policy. 
 
"... Conditions have changed and the new president's predisposition 
also seems to be different. What can we then expect from the next 
(Argentine) government's foreign policy? 
 
"Juan Tokatlian, head of International Relations at Universidad San 
Andres, says: 'When a country goes through what Argentina did, 
foreign policy evaporates. We had a president too focused on 
domestic issues and in an internationally restrictive context. 
Today, the context seems more appropriate. We can reach out to the 
world having the opportunity to hold talks with important leaders, 
but this implies considering what strategy we will use. 
 
"In Tokatlian's view, the new stage will call for 'a more heterodox 
Argentina on foreign policy issues,' which knows how to handle a 
'balance between cooperation and reticence in US-Argentine ties'... 
 
"Roberto Russell, head of the Master in International Studies at Di 
Tella University, agrees with Tokatlian that the country 'lost 
international weight' as a result of the crisis. 'We cannot have 
 
such weak ties - a relationship with the US in which the presidents 
do not speak to each other is absurd.' 
 
"... Jorge Castro, head of the Institute for Strategic Planning, 
points out that the new government's main challenge will be 
'reorienting foreign policy towards a closer relationship with the 
world.' He opines that the country should start revisiting its ties 
to the region. 
 
"... Re the Iranian issue, Castro said that the Argentine claim 'is 
a demonstration of subordination to the country's domestic policy or 
else an international posture...' Russell disagrees. He sustains 
that the new government should further its international claim, 
'which is due to an Argentine genuine interest, which is independent 
from US needs.' 
 
"... Sergio Cesarin, CONICET researcher, believes that, in contrast 
to Kirchner, the new government will draw 'a traditional line with 
Latin America, Europe and the US,' and he predicts 'an alliance of 
gender with Bachelet, Merkel and Hillary Clinton.'" 
 
- "Signs of an incipient arms race in Latin America" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
opines (10/30) "Until  now, the development of a new arms race in 
Latin America is a theoretical problem in relation to which analysts 
position themselves according to their degree of optimism/pessimism. 
Generally speaking, the prevailing opinion since the beginning of 
the 21st century has been that the region is one of the moderate 
regions (if not the most moderate) when it comes to purchasing 
military equipment. 
 
"The truth is that between 2000 and 2004 Latin American countries 
have invested about 1.3 per cent of their annual GDP in defense 
expenditures. Vis-`-vis the defense budgets of the Middle East and 
Northern Africa (3.7%), South Asia (2.5%) and Europe and Central 
Asia (2.3%), everything suggests that Latin American democracies are 
focused on other uses for their funds. 
 
"However, has this changed? Experts believe that an emerging arms 
race has been reestablished in Latin America particularly in 2006 
and 2007. 
 
"During a regional forum held in Miami last year, former Costa Rica 
President and Nobel Peace Award Laureate Oscar Arias, predicted that 
'Latin America has started a new arms race.' 
 
"Arias explained that 'in 2004 Latin America invested a total amount 
of 24 billion dollars in troops and armaments, which accounts for an 
eight-percent-increase vis-`-vis 1994.' 
 
"... Arias pointed out that 'it is shameful that the governments of 
some of the poorest countries continue stockpiling tanks, jeeps and 
weapons to allegedly protect  people sunk in poverty and 
ignorance.' 
 
"While some experts believe this warning is excessively alarmist, 
the truth is that many defense budgets have increased again in the 
region, as suggested by the Brazilian case. 
 
"According to Real Instituto El Cano, in 2005 Chile and Venezuela 
had the highest defense expenditures with 2.78 and 2.3 billion 
dollars respectively... Argentina is positioned on the other extreme 
of the ranking, with barely 80 million (dollars) on the item. 
 
"Venezuela, which has purchased combat airplanes and submarines on 
an alleged US military intervention, is the most frequently 
mentioned case, but it is not the only one." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
KELLY