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UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON AR
SUBJECT: NEAR-COMPLETE ELECTION RESULTS CONFIRM IMPRESSIVE 
VICTORY BY CRISTINA KIRCHNER, ARGENTINA'S NEXT PRESIDENT 
 
REF: BUENOS AIRES 2126 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  As of October 29, with ballots from 
approximately 96.5% of the voting stations tallied, Senator 
and First Lady Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) maintains 
an insurmountable lead in the presidential race with 44.91% 
of the total vote.  Second-place finisher, center-left 
candidate Elisa Carrio conceded the race six-and-a-half hours 
after the polls closed, but vowed to assume the role of 
leader of Argentina's political opposition.  The press 
reports that CFK has taken congratulatory calls so far from 
Lula, Hugo Chavez, Nicanor Duarte, Michelle Bachelet, and 
Rafael Correa.  As predicted by local polls leading to the 
election, Kirchner's Victory Front party (FPV) held its 
majority in the Senate and gained control of the Chamber of 
Deputies.  End Summary. 
 
---------------- 
Kirchner Victory 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As of 2:00 pm local time on October 29, Senator and 
First Lady Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) maintains an 
insurmountable lead in the presidential race with 44.91% 
(8,197,756) of the total vote.  Just under 94% of the total 
votes were cast for a specific candidate; about 5% were 
blank, 1.12% were invalid, and 0.18% were duplicates. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The second-place finisher, center-left candidate 
Elisa Carrio conceded the race at approximately 1:35 am local 
time on the morning of October 29, but said she will continue 
as the leader of the Argentine political opposition.  She 
received 22.96% of the vote (i.e., 4,188,660 ballots). 
Ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna received 16.89% or 
3,081,922 votes to finish in third place, a showing that was 
widely viewed as a disappointment.  San Luis Governor Alberto 
Rodriguez Saa finished with 7.72% or 1,407,652 votes, 
approximately what local polls had predicted he would 
receive.  The ten other presidential candidates each received 
less than 2% of the total votes. 
 
¶4. (SBU) According to local press reports, CFK has taken 
congratulatory calls so far from Brazil's Lula da Silva, 
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Paraguay's Nicanor Duarte-Frutos, 
Chile's Michelle Bachelet, and Ecuador's Rafael Correa.  The 
Brazilian Ambassador (protect) told the Ambassador that Lula 
plans to attend the December 10 inauguration of CFK and a 
farewell dinner for Nestor Kirchner on December 9. 
 
-------------- 
Senate Results 
-------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  As predicted by local polls leading to the 
election, Kirchner's Victory Front party (FPV) maintained its 
majority position in the Argentine Senate.  According to 
local newspaper estimates of the final seat distribution, the 
FPV defended its twelve seats in question in the Senate and 
picked up one more, giving the party 41 total seats out of 
¶72.  The FPV is also expected to enjoy the support of another 
seven non-FPV senators who are considered to be reliable 
Kirchner allies.  Carrio's Civic Coalition was the election's 
surprise, winning four new senate seats for a total 
representation of five.  The Radical Civic Union (UCR), which 
backed Lavagna, lost five seats for a total of 10. 
Meanwhile, the dissident Peronist lost seats, reducing their 
representation to four seats.  Other local and provincial 
parties share the remaining nine seats. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Eight provinces had Senate elections:  the 
Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Chaco, Entre Rios, Neuquen, 
Rio Negro, Salta, Santiago del Estero, and Tierra del Fuego. 
Each province has three representatives in the Senate:  two 
from the majority political party and one from the minority 
party that wins the most votes.  Terms in the Senate are for 
six years, with elections every two years to renew one-third 
of the seats.  There are no restrictions on repeated 
reelection.  The vice president serves as the president of 
the Senate and has the tie-breaking vote.  According to the 
Argentine Constitution, candidates for the Argentine Senate 
must: be at least 30 years old, have been a citizen of 
Argentina for six years, and be native to the province of 
his/her office (or have been a resident of that province for 
two years). 
 
--------------------------- 
Chamber of Deputies Results 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) According to local newspaper estimates of how the 
complicated D'Hondt formula would affect distribution of the 
130 seats that were up for grabs in the Chamber of Deputies, 
the FPV (including allied Radicals, socialists, and others) 
gained 20 seats, giving it control of 131 seats, just over 
the quorum level of 129.  In addition to the 131 FPV 
deputies, however, another 29 deputies in the Chamber are 
considered Kirchner allies, giving CFK a comfortable majority 
of the 258 votes in the Chamber.  Carrio's Civic Coalition is 
expected to gain 19 seats for a total of 27.  Lavagna-backed 
candidates are estimated to have lost 7 seats, bringing the 
UCR's totals down to 30 representatives (meaning that, for 
all the Radicals' troubles, they remain the second biggest 
bloc in the Chamber).  Rodriguez Saa and the dissident 
Peronists are expected to have lost 15 seats for a total of 
36 total seats for the incoming Chamber of Deputies.  Buenos 
Aires Mayor-elect Mauricio Macri's PRO party is predicted to 
lose 11 seats for a new total of 13.  The remaining 25 seats 
are divided among provincial and local parties. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Representation in the Chamber of Deputies 
(Argentina's Congressional Lower House) is based on 
provincial population.  Provinces receive one deputy for each 
161,000 inhabitants.  The distribution of seats per province 
has not been adjusted since 1983 and is based on the 1980 
census.  Buenos Aires province has 70 deputies; Buenos Aires 
City 25; Santa Fe 19; Cordoba 18; Mendoza 10; Entre Rios and 
Tucuman each have 9; Chaco, Corrientes, Missiones, Salta and 
Santiago del Estero each have 7; Jujuy and San Juan have 6 
each; and Chubut, Formosa, La Pampa, La Rioja, Neuquen, Rio 
Negro, San Luis, Santa Cruz, and Tierra del Fuego each have 5 
deputies.  Deputy terms are for four years and are elected by 
the D'Hondt formula of proportional representation. 
According to the Argentine Constitution, candidates for the 
Argentine Chamber of Deputies must be at least 25 years old, 
have been a citizen of Argentina for four years, and be 
native of the province of his/her office (or have been a 
resident of that province for two years).  There are no 
restrictions on repeated reelection.  Political parties must 
receive a three percent minimum of the national vote to 
receive a seat in the Chamber of Deputies. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  CFK is surely comforted by the knowledge that her 
FPV has a simple majority in both houses of Congress.  Even 
more important, however, is the magnitude of her almost 
22-percentage-point victory over her nearest rival, which 
equals the total number of votes won by her husband in the 
first -- and ultimately only -- round of the last Argentine 
presidential election.  Cristina's convincing electoral 
triumph should strengthen her political hand, providing her 
with the political capital she desperately needs to tackle 
the many policy challenges that confront her government. 
 
KELLY