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DE RUEHBU #2126/01 3020244
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290244Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9586
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6659
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6540
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1564
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT MONTEVIDEO 6869
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0880
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA 0313
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 1464
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 1930
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: EXIT POLLS SAY CRISTINA KIRCHNER BECOME 
ARGENTINA'S FIRST ELECTED FEMALE PRESIDENT 
 
REF: (A) BUENOS AIRES 02086 (B) BUENOS AIRES 2090 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  According to exit polls and the partial 
official vote tally, First Lady and Senator Cristina 
Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) appears to have been voted the 
next president of Argentina in the October 28 national 
election.  With 45.41% of the ballot boxes counted, CFK had a 
preliminary 43.63% of the vote, over twenty points ahead of 
the next candidate, Elisa Carrio.  CFK claimed victory, and 
several of her opponents conceded defeat (but, so far, likely 
runner-up Carrio has not/not).  According to press reports, 
Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Uruguayan President 
Vasquez have already called to congratulate CFK on her 
presumed victory.  Congressional results will take longer to 
tally, in part because of the complicated formula used to 
allocate seats in the Chamber of Deputies.  Given Argentines' 
tendency to vote straight party tickets, it appears likely 
that Kirchner's Victory Front Party (FPV) consolidated its 
control of Congress by sweeping the majority of the available 
seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies.  The 
opposition, however, appeared to have done well in the big 
cities.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Preliminary Election Results 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Beginning at 1900 local time, the moment when the last 
polling stations closed, media reported that exit polls 
indicated that First Lady and Senator Cristina Fernandez de 
Kirchner had won the October 28 presidential election with 
over 40% of the vote and more than a twenty-point lead over 
the next candidate.  Indeed, one major exit poll gave CFK 
46.3% of the vote and only 23.7% to Elisa Carrio.  The 
official provisional count started trickling out after 2130 
local time, and as of 0100 on October 29, with 45.14% of the 
ballot boxes counted, CFK had a preliminary 43.63% of the 
vote, over twenty points ahead of the next candidate -- 
currently Carrio in second place with 20.89% and Lavagna in 
third with 18.95%.  If confirmed with final tallies, CFK will 
be the first elected female president of Argentina.  (Juan 
Domingo Peron's widow Isabel Peron, who was Vice President at 
the time of his death, served as president from 1974-76.  She 
was overthrown by a military coup in March 1976.) 
 
¶3. (U) According to preliminary results, the opposition did 
very well in the Federal Capital, Cordoba and Rosario, while 
CFK scored very strongly in Buenos Aires province, which 
accounts for about 39% of the country's population. 
 
¶4. (U) Around 2200 local time, CFK appeared at her bunker at 
the Intercontinental Hotel and declared victory, saying "We 
have won by a wide margin, perhaps the biggest margin between 
first and second place since the return of democracy."  She 
said the elections represented a victory for all Argentines, 
and that the margin of victory implied an even greater 
responsibility for her.  She invited political participation 
by young people, regardless of their political affiliation. 
She directed some words to her "sisters of gender," and 
praised her husband, her "partner in life," noting that 
thanks to his successful administration, she would assume the 
presidency under much better circumstances than he did in 
¶2003.  She called for an end to hatred and rancor and called 
for united efforts to build a new Argentina. 
 
¶5. (U) Of a field of 14 candidates, all of CFK's major 
opponents, including Roberto Lavagna (UNA), Alberto 
Rodriguez-Saa (Frejuli), and Jorge Sobisch (MPU) have 
conceded defeat.  Likely second-place finisher Elisa Carrio, 
as of midnight, has not/not conceded yet.  Brazilian 
President Lula da Silva and Uruguayan President Tabare 
Vasquez reportedly called to congratulate CFK within hours of 
the closing of polls (in Lula's case, within minutes). 
 
------------------- 
Congressional Races 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Congressional results will take longer to tally, in 
part because of the complicated D'Hont formula used to 
allocate seats in the Chamber of Deputies.  Given Argentines' 
tendency to vote straight party tickets, it appears likely 
that Kirchner's Victory Front Party (FPV) deepened its 
control of Congress by sweeping the majority of the available 
seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies.  Prior to 
this election, Kirchner's FPV held 41 out of 72 seats in the 
Senate and 111 out of 258 seats in the Chamber of Deputies 
(where it relied on shifting alliances to obtain 
congressional majorities).  The Chamber had 130 seats up for 
grabs, and it was widely expected that enough FPV candidates 
would ride CFK's coattails to give the FPV a majority in the 
Chamber as well as the Senate.  Septel will provide more 
details on the congressional races. 
 
--------------------- 
Opposition Complaints 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In Argentina, political parties are responsible for 
printing and providing ballots for their candidates.  In the 
voting booth, voters choose from stacks of ballots and insert 
them in the envelopes that they deposit in the ballot box. 
Voting across party lines is not a common practice, but to do 
so, voters can clip the names of candidates from different 
slates for the various offices at stake.  Throughout the day, 
there were reports that ballots were missing at some polling 
stations, particularly opposition ballots.  Media reports did 
not attempt to quantify the scale of the problem, but 
anecdotally there were reports from places throughout the 
country of missing ballots, and party representatives filed 
complaints with the authorities.  In a press conference, 
Interior Minister Anibal Fernandez asserted that, under 
Argentine law, it was incumbent upon the political parties to 
replenish their ballots at each polling station throughout 
the country. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Analysts and pollsters had predicted a Kirchner win 
and an FPV majority in congress, and there were no big 
surprises today, except perhaps the strong opposition showing 
in major cities.  CFK's victory over a divided opposition and 
the FPV's consolidation of its control of Congress should 
strengthen her claim to a strong mandate -- but that will 
depend on how much above 40% her final tally is.  (A first 
round victory requires at least 40% of the vote plus at least 
a ten-point lead over the runner-up.) 
 
WAYNE