VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2091/01 2962128
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 232128Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9538
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; TURKS AND KURDS; IMF GENERAL ASSEMBLY; 
10/23/07 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Major international stories today include implications of Turkey's 
plan in Northern Iraq and its parallel with Israel's formula in 
Lebanon; and the outcome of the IMF General Assembly with an alleged 
IMF crisis. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "A Lebanese-styled solution in a hot area" 
 
Oscar Ral Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarn," 
opines (10/23) "A 'Lebanese' solution to the escalated war between 
Iraq's Kurdish provinces and Turkey seems to be on the horizon. It 
does not seem to be the best of ideas, although the first step would 
be a 'ceasefire', which is about to be made public through US 
political cooperation. 
 
"Let's see what this formula could bring about. The overall feeling 
is that the combatant Kurdish faction (the PKK) and the Turkish army 
will not be able to maintain the ceasefire for too long. 
 
"The point is that the Ankara government's real objective seems to 
be to advance on the Iraqi-Kurdish territory and establish an 'area 
of containment' that will be occupied by its Army in the same way 
Israel has occupied Lebanon since 1982. 
 
"During the following 22 years, the Israeli military usurped the 
sovereignty of Southern Lebanon without really improving security. 
 
"... These conditions could be reproduced in a magnified way in the 
current Iraqi-Kurdish scenario. It will take place in a country, 
Iraq, that seems to be on the verge of dissolution, with an 
incipient civil war affected by the converging geo-strategic 
interests of Iran, Syria, Turkey and of course the Iraqis that have 
been co-opted by the US military occupation. 
 
"A clear sign of the importance of this conflict is the immediate 
impact triggered by the PKK's recent attack against Turkish forces 
on already high international oil prices. 
 
"Actions now could not only involve oil pipelines from the region 
but also from the Caspian Sea. 
 
"The Turkish government plans to encourage the confrontation between 
the two main Kurdish factions..., while the Turkish Army is devoted 
to annihilating the most aggressive PKK in the future 'mattress 
area.' 
 
"This would remarkably alleviate pressure from the Kurds, who claim 
their rights to part of the Turkish national territory... 
 
"Nonetheless, whatever is functional to Turkey may at the same time 
worsen the ongoing regional disaster uncorked by the 2003 invasion 
of Iraq." 
 
- "The IMF will have to test its own prescription - it will have to 
adjust expenditures" 
 
Martin Kanenguiser, on special assignment in Washington DC for 
daily-of-record "La Nacisn," comments (10/23) "If the IMF ever had a 
friend or defender, the Annual Assembly that ended yesterday 
demonstrated that no one is left and that claims from Argentina, 
among other countries, about IMF lack of legitimacy and 
representation will present the need to 'reinvent itself' in order 
to survive in a world that is increasingly unwilling to hold 
multilateral talks. The IMF crisis was so patent that US Treasury 
Secretary Henry Paulson himself asked the IMF to adjust its 
 
SIPDIS 
expenditures to again obtain a balanced budget, exactly the same 
claim the IMF staff constantly asks from developing countries. 
 
"Lula also said that the IMF and the WB 'are only focused on wealthy 
nations' and yesterday Chinese Finance VM Li Yong said that 
'developing countries should no longer be excluded from the main 
decisions or have little representation' at multilateral lending 
agencies, 'and he also complained about the G7's tough treatment of 
his country's exchange policy. 
 
"Argentina made its own claim, less aggressive in rhetorical terms 
that those of President Nstor Kirchner but not less ironic. Economy 
Minister Miguel Peirano pointed out in many speeches that the IMF 
does little monitoring of developed countries, in which the current 
international liquidity crisis was created, and that 'the IMF runs a 
big risk of becoming irrelevant.' 
 
"... The IMF monitoring system seems to be plagued with criticism. 
In the wealthy countries' view, the IMF is too complacent with 
 
emerging nations. In the view of the latter, there is no chance that 
the IMF's wealthiest members, the US and the EU, would agree to be 
monitored by a multilateral lending agency... 
 
"... The left wing hates the IMF and the conservative right wing 
wanted to eliminate the IMF. The IMF should be rapidly overhauled 
before it loses all importance, and, in the view of many analysts, 
the Argentine case could mark the beginning of its recovery, or not, 
in the same way it marked the beginning of its failure in late 
2001." 
 
- "Argentina amid a ferocious IMF internal dispute" 
 
Jorge Luis Velsquez, on special assignment to Washington DC for 
leading "Clarn," writes (10/23) "The visit of (Economy) Minister 
Miguel Peirano's attendance at the IMF Assembly in Washington left 
at lest two certainties. One seems encouraging for Argentina and the 
other, of concern. 
 
"The first one is related to the degree of consensus Argentine 
negotiators managed to obtain, which until short ago only raised 
criticism - all G-24 countries supported its questionings over the 
IMF current role, which led Kirchner to decide to pay off the 
country's debt in cash in order to get rid of the IMF. 
 
"The consensus also approached Argentina's position to that of 
Mexico and Brazil, which will strengthen regional integration and 
long-standing initiatives such as Mercosur or Banco del Sur. We 
should also bear in mind a still light rapprochement with the US 
Treasury Department, which was conveyed through some special remarks 
from Secretary Henry Paulson towards Argentine authorities. There 
was a subtle although perceptible wink - congratulating Argentina 
for having supported a US initiative to condone an 
800-million-dollar debt Liberia owed to the IMF. 
 
"The concern is over the IMF internal dispute sparked by Rodrigo 
Rato's departure from the IMF and his replacement by French 
Dominique Strauss Kahn. In this arm-wrestling the Argentine case is 
the spoil of war between confronted sides... 
 
"... Under these circumstances, (IMF) criticism of Argentina was 
interpreted as a defensive reaction from local bureaucracy. It would 
reportedly seek to survive by underscoring the failings of the 
Argentine economy, and, in this way, they would mark a difference 
with Strauss Kahn's conciliatory posture towards Nstor Kirchner." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE