VZCZCXYZ0005
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2016/01 2831509
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 101509Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9447
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; IRAQ; ARGENTINE-IMF TIES; ARGENTINE 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER; 10/09/07 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend international stories include UK Gordon Brown's decision to 
reduce UK troops deployed in Iraq; ties between the IMF and 
Argentina; and the risks to be met by Argentine Presidential 
Candidate Cristina Kirchner if she wins the presidency. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "The US is increasingly alone" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, daily-of-record "La Nacisn's" Washington-based 
correspondent, comments (10/09) "Six months ago, Gordon Brown was on 
the verge of announcing the partial withdrawal of UK troops from 
Southern Iraq. However, the White House managed to delay his 
announcement by arguing that it could complicate the offensive 
promoted by US Commander David Petraeus. 
 
"Yesterday, the Bush administration reacted with moderate public 
gestures in view of the withdrawal of 2,500 (UK) soldiers. It 
lamented in private that the UK was 'fleeing' Iraq when US official 
sources believe that the right plan is quite the opposite - staying 
and promoting the stabilization of the country. 
 
"... The US president envisions a 'long-term' presence in Iraq, just 
like in Germany or South Korea. This possibility is also gaining 
strength among Democrats who compete to succeed him. 
 
"... In view of the situation, Americans are increasingly isolated 
in Iraq, where they have deployed 160,000 troops. UK troops and the 
rest of the so-called 'coalition of the willing' are already 
withdrawing their troops. 
 
According to Toby Dodge, an academic from the International 
Institute for Strategic Studies, 'the White House is deeply 
uncomfortable with this decision.' 
 
"... The strategic value of Southern Iraq lies in its oil fields as 
well as in its land routes, which are indispensable for the way out 
of US troops heading for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. 
 
"... According to 'The Telegraph,' which quoted 'high-ranking US 
Pentagon members, US 'hawks' promoting the bombing of Iran also 
believe that Brown's announcement will not alter the support they 
say they have received last July from the UK for an attack. 
 
"Nevertheless, the UK withdrawal adds a new problem for Petraeus, 
who will have to 'seal' or at least reduce the porosity of the 
border between Iran and Iraq by using less reliable troops in order 
to avoid retaliation against his troops if the bombing is ordered. 
 
"In this scenario, the 180,000 custodians and contractors hired by 
the US Pentagon and the Department of State in Iraq take on 
importance, including the questioned Blackwater, Triple Canopy, 
DynCorp and Halliburton." 
 
- "Argentina and the IMF" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacisn" editorializes (10/09) "At a particularly 
critical moment of the world economy, the Argentine Government's 
support for the new IMF Managing Director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, 
seemed to be a sign of change in the country's relationship with the 
IMF, which President Kirchner blamed for the country's worst 
economic crisis... 
 
"... In the face of (Argentine) presidential elections, official 
candidate Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner received many signals about 
the positive effect of an improvement in the country's ties to the 
IMF... 
 
"No one questions IMF responsibility for the Argentine crisis. The 
IMF itself concluded in a report from its Independent Evaluation 
Office (IEO) that it had been 'too indulgent' with Argentina for 
'having maintained its support for the convertibility plan when the 
latter was no longer sustainable...' 
 
"This means that the IMF acknowledged its partial responsibility in 
the crisis, all of which is constructive... 
 
"However, in spite of the acknowledgement of mistakes, the IMF has 
had a failing since the time it was founded - the continuity of the 
1944 unwritten deal whereby European countries reserve for 
themselves the right to appoint their managing director and the US 
has the right to appoint the head of the World Bank... 
 
"... In the IMF mea culpa regarding Argentina, the multilateral 
lending agency imposed 'more rigorous standards on itself in the 
 
future'... Rato warned Argentina that it should accelerate the 
structural reforms included in the three-year program reached in 
¶2003. The Kirchner administration subjected them to the review of 
the program since monetary and fiscal guidelines had been honored. 
What remains pending is compensation for local and foreign investors 
after the December 2001 default. 
 
"In this scenario, the Argentine Government's support for 
Strauss-Kahn seemed to be a signal of membership. If one member is 
willing to modify a structure, then one should take part in it. 
Otherwise, criticism could be interpreted as remarks from a country 
that did not accept the acknowledgement of third parties' mistakes, 
and prefers to remain outside of a debate in which it should 
participate as a member." 
 
- "Cristina's risks" 
 
Leading "Clarn's" political editor Eduardo van der Kooy writes 
(10/07) "Cristina Fernndez is not a candidate campaigning for 
presidency. Rather, she seems to behave like a president-elect only 
three weeks before elections and two months before the transfer of 
power takes place. Is this miscalculation, a mistake or a strategy? 
 
"... The strategy could bear fruit in the (presidential election) 
campaign and also abroad. When US Secretary of State Condoleezza 
Rice met with FM Jorge Taiana in New York last week, she asked 
Taiana about how the US-Argentine bilateral relationship could 
evolve in the future. The new head of the Southern Cone at the US 
Department of State, Milton Drucker, made a short visit to Buenos 
Aires to gather information almost exclusively about Cristina. Lula 
mounted a decorated stage for the candidate with the attendance of 
the twelve most powerful businessmen in Brazil... 
 
"Problems for Cristina will unlikely appear during her election 
campaign. Problems could well appear, if she wins, during the 
transition period and the first months of her term in office. There 
are social and economic problems to be met by any triumphant 
candidate... 
 
"Cristina's role as a parallel and virtual president will make her 
share the Kirchner administration's dusk, which seems to have more 
shadows than lights, regardless of the social consensus the 
President attributes to him... The honeymoon every recently elected 
president enjoys could run the risk of reduction and could pave the 
way for increasing popular claims. 
 
"Perhaps all these threats led to a soft change in the official 
campaign. Cristina's trips abroad have come to an end... Instead, 
she will present herself in the country and perhaps she will have to 
change her speech, in which big political lines prevail, for another 
one regarding ordinary difficulties met by Argentines... 
 
"... The government's relationship with the media is not the main 
problem to be solved by Argentina, but still it is a problem... 
 
"Inflation does pose a big dilemma for everyone. Kirchner is still 
clinging on some imprecise conspiracies to justify the criticism of 
the government's price manipulation and the INDEC political 
disaster... Most opponents... agitate the issue as an omen of chaos. 
Just for once, Cristina was not able to escape the 'fire' when a 
Brazilian banker asked her about it." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE