VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #3064/01 2761520
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031520Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6489

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: RIGHT WING VLAAMS BELANG SAYS SUPPORT FOR FLEMISH 
INDEPENDENCE GROWS BUT NO REVOLUTION IMMINENT 
 
REF: BRUSSELS 3021 
 
¶1.  (SBU) With over one hundred days without a government, 
speculation in the international media rapidly spread about 
the future of Belgium.  Touted to become Prime Minister after 
the June 10 elections, Flemish Christian Democratic (CD&V) 
leader Yves Leterme's efforts to form a government broke 
down, held hostage by the wide gulf between the Flemish and 
French sides on institutional or state reform and the 
Francophones' dislike and suspicion of Leterme (reftel). 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The international press picked up on the feud, 
speculating about the "two extremes in Belgium," those 
hankering for separation versus those who believe Belgium 
will last forever.  Some Flemish nationalists, like the 
right-wing Vlaams Belang (VB) party, are almost jubilant 
about the lack of a government.  VB leaders have been 
pictured celebrating the passing of one hundred days without 
a government, certain the impasse only reinforces their 
position that Flanders would be better off without Belgium. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) According to a VB parliamentarian with whom embassy 
maintains discreet contact, the idea of Flemish independence 
has surged in support in Flanders, up from approximately ten 
percent of the population a couple of years ago to forty to 
fifty percent now.  He called the numbers supporting 
separation "exceptional, something we have never seen 
before."  He partly attributed the increase to the problems 
ensuing from the government formation talks, and complained 
that CD&V leader Leterme was negotiating with a "watered down 
version" of the institutional (state) reform platform he ran 
on for the June 2007 federal elections.  Our contact did not 
mince words about what he saw as the true nature of the 
Flemish desire for institutional reform.  He argued that 
"true state reform" was crucial to give Flanders more 
regional competencies, which Flanders needed in order to 
accrue power and combat an overreaching federal government. 
While the Flemish contention, distrusted by Francophones, 
that state reform is needed to make Belgium more economically 
competitive was true, elevating Flanders by limiting the 
federal role was a primary objective. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The parliamentarian summed up the divide between 
Flemish and French speakers, particularly on state reform, 
from VB's perspective: "Francophones are attached to the 
Belgian state, whereas the Flemish see Flanders as their 
country."  While Flanders was eager to be more independent 
and powerful, Wallonia feared the loss of government benefits 
and additional responsibilities that more regional 
competencies would bring. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Despite the increased Flemish desire for 
independence, "there's no revolutionary atmosphere in 
Belgium," he maintained.  VB preferred a united Belgium over 
a separate one garnered from violence or overt factional 
hostility.  But the desire for separation remains strong in 
Flanders because "we Flemish do not feel at home in Belgium," 
a holdover from historical French elitism and disdain towards 
the Flemish.  He maintained that Belgium's royal family did 
not want to acknowledge Flanders, and referred to the Queen's 
lack of Flemish language skills as "an insult."  He also did 
not view the prominent role played by Flemish politicians in 
the federal Government (i.e., as Prime Minister and Foreign 
Minister) as particularly favorable.  Pointing to PM 
Verhofstadt's change in stance to favor voting rights for 
immigrants in the 2006 local elections, effectively a 
concession to the francophone Socialist party, he claimed 
"the price to have a Flemish Prime Minister is so high -- 
they have to make a lot of concessions to French-speakers." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Our contact was optimistic about VB's future 
growth, although noticeably concerned about the effect 
political parties such as "Lijst Dedecker" and Flemish 
nationalist N-VA (New Flemish Alliance) might have on VB's 
position.  While Vlaams Belang managed to better its 2003 
score in terms of percentage in the 2007 federal elections, 
it still lost a seat in the House of Representatives.  Coming 
on top of a disappointing showing in the October 2006 
municipal elections, the 2007 results fueled speculation that 
VB has reached its natural ceiling of around twenty-five 
percent of the vote.  On the other hand, "Lijst Dedecker," a 
new party centered around Jean-Marie Dedecker, a maverick 
former member of the Flemish Liberal Open VLD, expelled from 
the party in 2006, did better than expected and won five 
seats. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Calling NV-A both an "ally and a traitor," the VB 
contact said NV-A and Vlaams Belang have the same nationalist 
goals but thought NV-A had compromised on the forcefulness of 
its platform in order to be "more palatable" to the general 
public.  "We have the same goals but a different strategy," 
he opined (perhaps alluding to episodes such as VB leaders 
 
Frank Vanhecke and Filip Dewinter purposely getting arrested 
at an outlawed anti-Islam rally that VB supported, or 
cheerfully brandishing a cake to celebrate one hundred days 
without a government).  He thought NV-A, in partnership with 
CD&V, held strong cards in the government formation talks but 
would remain politically successful only if institutional 
reform is part of the package.  If Leterme's CD&V forms a new 
government without major state reform, he felt NV-A could 
split from CD&V and join "Lijst Dedecker". 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment: While still a force to be reckoned with on 
the Belgian political scene, VB leaders are nevertheless 
concerned about the party's growth potential, with a 
disappointing showing in the 2006 local elections and the 
loss of a House seat in 2007.  The party strives to remain 
relevant on its separatist platform.  It must be noted, 
however, that the huge number for independence cited by our 
VB contact may be less striking than he presents: the result 
was from a small poll that asked whether respondents would 
support independence if the francophones refuse to make any 
concessions during government talks. 
 
FOX 
.