VZCZCXRO0977
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #1991 2891858
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161858Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0208
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6336
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5054
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 7044
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 6464
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7227
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 5248
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 0984
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BRASILIA 001991 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: EMBATTLED SENATE PRESIDENT TAKES LEAVE, WILL 
RESIGN PRESIDENCY 
 
REF: BRASILIA 1745 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Embattled Senate President Renan 
Calheiros (PMDB, Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, 
governing coalition; of Alagoas) took leave from the Senate 
on October 11 after five months of unrelenting media and 
opposition attacks over alleged corruption.  He is now 
expected to resign the presidency to escape conviction on 
ethics charges, but now facing five separate cases, the odds 
of avoiding a conviction are against him.  The Workers Party 
(PT) now has temporary command of both houses of congress, so 
should be able to speed approval for legislation supported by 
the PT-controlled executive branch.  It will take much longer 
for the Senate to repair its severely damaged public image. 
End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Media reports on October 16 confirmed what many 
analysts expected: Calheiros has told friends he will resign 
from the Senate Presidency to try to avoid being expelled 
from the Senate and losing his political rights.  His gambit 
may fail and he could still lose his Senate seat. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Calheiros faces three cases in the Senate Ethics 
Committee that were developed after he came under scrutiny 
when Veja magazine wrote last May that child support payments 
for an illegitimate daughter were paid by, or through, a 
lobbying firm that represents construction firms with 
government contracts.  The cases accuse him of concealing 
ownership in radio stations, improperly aiding a brewing 
company, and deviating funds from ministries controlled by 
his party.  A fourth case will accuse him of spying on 
political enemies, and a fifth of founding a phantom firm to 
defraud the government.  He was previously acquitted in the 
Senate Plenary of the first case against him (reftel). 
 
¶4.  (U)  Calheiros's leave-taking makes Tiao Viana (PT, 
Workers Party, lead party in the governing coalition; of 
Acre) the acting Senate President, giving the PT the 
presidency of both houses of Congress for at least 45 days. 
When Calheiros officially resigns the presidency, senators 
will elect a successor, with speculation centering on former 
president Jose Sarney (PMDB, Amapa), Roseana Sarney (PMDB, 
Maranhao), and Gerson Camata (PMDB, Espirito Santo).  The 
opposition favorite is Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB, Pernambuco), 
but he is unacceptable to the government coalition and 
probably unelectable. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Calheiros undermined his case throughout the ordeal 
in a series of missteps, including presenting documents that 
TV Globo showed to be false, but the last straw was the 
allegation that he tried to spy on political enemies.  Many 
Senate allies abandoned him, and according to press reports, 
longtime supporter Jose Sarney counseled him to step aside. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Comment:  The big winner is President Lula's 
Workers Party, now at the helm of both houses and in control 
of the agenda.  This probably will translate into more clout 
in the legislative process, but it is only temporary because 
Calheiros's permanent successor will come from the PMDB, the 
largest party in the Senate.  The loser is the Senate's 
public image: senators were shown on television in heated 
exchanges, trading accusations and insults over the Calheiros 
affair, undermining public confidence in the institution's 
dignity and integrity, while Calheiros refused to step down 
as evidence against him mounted.  While the Calheiros case 
may have limited long-term impact on the legislative process, 
in the near-term the opposition has ended its obstructionism 
and the Senate can  resume consideration of legislation and 
act on key bills.  It also prompted some senators to 
introduce a bill to require any member of the leadership 
("mesa diretora") to take leave from the presidency if the 
Ethics Committee votes to consider a case against him or her. 
 While the proposal is not a watershed response to what could 
have been a watershed moment, it is a step in the right 
direction. 
 
Sobel