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DE RUEHBW #1472/01 3031256
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301256Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1682
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001472 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA'S DSS DECLARES MILITARY NEUTRALITY 
 
REF:  BELGRADE 1450 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) The Democratic Party of Serbia of Prime Minister Vojislav 
Kostunica on October 28 adopted a declaration supporting military 
neutrality for Serbia.  The declaration, while dramatic, in fact, 
allows for the possibility of Serbia entering a military alliance by 
public referendum.  For the moment, coalition partners, who see 
Serbia's future built on European integration and Euro-Atlantic 
alliances, are treading softly around the issue.  With Kosovo status 
and presidential elections looming large, their agenda is already 
full of neuralgia triggers, without adding a debate on NATO.  Unless 
or until DSS tries to move this from a party platform to a 
government policy, the President and his party will likely defer 
this debate, while moving cautiously forward with PfP planning.  An 
unofficial translation of the declaration is provided in para 7. 
End summary. 
 
DSS Affirms Military Neutrality in Party Platform 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (U) The Democratic Party of Serbia's (DSS) main board unanimously 
adopted military neutrality for Serbia as a plank in its party 
platform, October 28.  "Military neutrality in relation to the 
existing military alliances represents the best and most reliable 
way for Serbia to preserve its state sovereignty, integrity, and 
independence," the declaration states.  The declaration stipulates 
that Serbia may enter into a military alliance only by decision of a 
public referendum.  The text does not explicitly bar Serbia's 
cooperation with other countries on common security issues. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The declaration restates as party policy the position 
against NATO membership that Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica 
outlined during the October 14 DSS party conference (reftel) and 
that DSS members have publicly echoed in recent weeks.  Dragan 
Sormaz, DSS member of the Parliament's Defense and Security 
Committee, told visiting NATO state parliamentarians on October 25 
that Serbia should not join any military alliance.  "Why criticize 
us for wanting to be neutral," Sormaz said to the parliamentarians 
and diplomats.  Sormaz pointed to Austria as a potential model for 
neutrality, citing Austrian cooperation with NATO in the PFP 
program.  Austria also is an example of a non-NATO member of the 
EU. 
 
Defining Neutrality 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Local media is trying to figure out the practical 
implications of the DSS brand of neutrality.  Gordana Logar, 
columnist of the independent daily "Danas," wrote in her October 29 
column that one might view the DSS declaration in the context of the 
DSS relationships with coalition partners and with Russia.  Logar 
speculated that the DSS declaration was meant to ease Moscow's 
concerns about Serbia's intention to sign a Stabilization and 
Association Agreement with the European Union.  Logar questioned 
whether the DSS brand of neutrality would preclude or limit military 
cooperation or membership in associations.  Logar also questioned 
whether neutrality would limit the government from active 
involvement in the affairs of Republika Srpska.  She also mentioned 
that Serbia's only current military engagement was with the United 
States -- with the Ohio National Guard. 
 
¶5. (SBU) While analysts and politicians are still trying to 
determine the impact of the DSS declaration, Democratic Party (DS) 
members are somewhat dismissive.  DS MP and member of the 
Parliament's Defense and Security Committee Konstantin Samofalov 
told poloff on October 29 that the announcement "gained cheap 
political points."  Samofalov noted, however, that the political 
isolation that neutrality suggests would be a setback for the 
country.  Serbia could not "stay in a black hole" when all its 
neighbors wanted to be NATO members.  Samofalov said he presumed 
that the DSS concept of neutrality posed obstacles only to NATO 
membership, "but with the DSS one never knows," he said. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Belgrade-based think tanks also were trying to read between 
the lines of the declaration; the text of the document left some 
unimpressed.  President of the International and Security Affairs 
Center, Pavle Jankovic, told poloff on October 29 that the DSS 
position "neglects an understanding of what neutrality means these 
days."  The DSS does not appreciate the challenge of neutrality, 
which requires a country to provide for one's citizens what 
otherwise could be provided for more easily through international 
obligations, Jankovic said.  Jankovic surmised that the DSS position 
was primarily drafted for domestic political impact, but speculated 
that it also played well for Russia, setting Serbia to aggravate 
U.S. and EU plans for Europe whole, free, and at peace. 
 
Moving forward Slowly with PFP 
------------------------------ 
 
 
BELGRADE 00001472  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Government officials suggest that the DSS neutrality will 
slow Serbia's participation in NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP). 
Director for MFA's NATO Office, Milan Gojkovic, told poloff on 
October 25 that, as a result of DSS's position, the MFA and MOD were 
carefully selecting PfP events and would devise a 
"non-controversial" Individual Partnership Plan (IPP) for Serbia's 
PfP participation that will assure coalition approval.  The GOS 
would present its IPP to NATO on December 4, Gojkovic said. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Neutrality sits comfortably with those nostalgic for 
Yugoslavia's non-aligned past, but it does not bode well for the 
country's future.  That Kostunica and his party advance an anti-NATO 
agenda is neither surprising nor new.  To couch this agenda in terms 
of neutrality is new.  And while neutrality might secure political 
and hydrocarbon support for Serbia from distant Russia, it would 
leave the country alone in the Balkans as a non-participant in the 
international security sector.  End Comment. 
 
Translation of DSS Declaration on Military Neutrality 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶7. (U) Begin Translation 
 
¶1. Military neutrality in relation to existing military alliances 
represents the best and most reliable way for Serbia to preserve its 
state sovereignty, integrity and independence as the basis for free 
and total progress and to provide a dignified life for its citizens. 
 
 
¶2. Military neutrality is the most secure guarantee for peace, while 
a policy of military neutrality is the best way for the development 
and improvement of Serbia in accordance to its own interests. 
 
¶3. Military neutrality represents the expression of Serbia's sincere 
choice against policies of force, threats to world peace, aggression 
and war. 
 
¶4. Choosing a policy of peace, development and preservation of 
internal and international security is proof that military 
neutrality is not, nor can it be, directed against other countries, 
and best testifies to Serbia's readiness to equally cooperate with 
all the countries in the world that respect the universal principles 
of international law embodied in the UN Charter. 
 
¶5. Military neutrality does not exclude the possibility of Serbia's 
cooperation with other countries in the interest of common and 
general security and allows Serbia to develop its own security 
system in accordance with its national and state interests, aimed at 
the democratic, peaceful and stable development of Serbia. 
 
¶6. Giving up the principle of military neutrality and joining the 
NATO Pact would require Serbia to take part in wars that are not in 
its interest, limiting its freedom and freedom of political 
decision, threatening the lives of its citizens and overburdening 
the internal reform and progress of the country. 
 
¶7. No one is entitled, nor has the right, to pass the decision for 
Serbia to join any military alliance without the approval of the 
citizens, who can pass such a decision exclusively by referendum. 
 
End Translation. 
 
BRUSH