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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHBW #1463/01 2991416
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261416Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1673
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001463 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ELECTION DAY SPRINT OR HURDLES 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Serbian citizens may head to the polls on December 9 -- or 
maybe they won't.  The election date remains up in the air, as ruling 
coalition partners jockey for control of the process and results. 
President Boris Tadic, with the most to gain from elections prior to 
the end of the Kosovo Status negotiation process, is looking for 
assurance of a first-round victory before setting the date.  With too 
many potential candidates crowding the field, he doesn't have it. 
His coalition partner Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica continues to 
advocate for elections post KosQo status.  Both leaders are in the 
discussions with the Radicals, whose support (for the date, not the 
candidate) may ultimately decide election timing.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic will announce and establish 
a schedule for Serbia's presidential and municipal elections, but, as 
of October 26, Dulic was uncertain how he would proceed.  The Speaker 
told poloff that President Tadic had decided two or three weeks ago 
to push for December 9 presidential elections, but was now waffling. 
Tadic is angry, Dulic said, that Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
leader Cedomir (Ceda) Jovanovic had announced his own candidacy.  No 
longer assured of a first-round win, the President was reconsidering 
his options.  Reflecting the President's uncertainty, political 
insider, FM Vuk Jeremic told Ambassador, October 24, that he was 
99.9% sure the elections would go ahead in December, but was less 
certain about when in December they would be held.  Sulking over the 
impasse, Dulic said he hoped that all parties would acknowledge the 
democratic needs of the country and, he insinuated, but did not 
articulate, that Ceda would withdraw from the race. 
 
Democrats Divided 
----------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) For the moment, the Liberals show no sign of backing down. 
In a September conversation with the Ambassador, Ceda had framed the 
democratic imperative differently, describing his "democratic 
responsibility" to run for president.  An LDP member of parliament 
told us that the LDP decided on October 24 to mount a campaign.  MP 
Ivan Andric told us that the LDP will push for parliamentary 
elections, as well, out of concern for the government's lack of 
direction. 
 
¶4.  (U) Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has repeatedly 
voiced opposition to holding elections while Kosovo status is 
unresolved.  Party whip Milos Aligrudic declined to discuss internal 
coalition negotiations on October 26, but, presenting the legal 
argument for delay, insisted that there would be sufficient time 
between December 10 and 31 to enact constitutionally mandated 
legislation and enable the Speaker to meet all legal requirements for 
calling elections.  DSS members have told the press that they would 
boycott early (i.e. December) elections. 
 
Radicals Ready to Go to the Polls 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Radical Party (SRS) leader Seslj announced, from the Hague, 
the candidacy of his deputy Tomaslav Nikolic.  Media contacts told 
emboff that SRS leadership believes Nikolic could win on the first 
round, even in early elections.  Setting aside rumors that the 
Radicals would boycott December elections, Nikolic said in an 
interview publish October 25, that the SRS would not allow Tadic to 
run and win unopposed. 
 
The Law 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Parliamentary speaker Dulic insisted that he would hold 
elections before the end of the year politics, not withstanding.  The 
Qeaker asserted that although constitutional law establishes a 
timetable for elections that presumes passage of several laws, 
including the law on the presidency, a superior constitutional 
requirement that the Speaker call presidential elections prior to the 
end of 2007 takes precedence.  The government's failure to introduce 
the necessary legislation, or parliament's failure to enact it before 
the end of the year, would not obviate this responsibility, he said. 
Former President of the Constitutional Court and former Justice 
Minister Momcilo Grubac confirmed to us this interpretation of the 
law.  Dulic confided that the DSS current tactic, arguing that there 
was time and will to meet all the legal requirements, particularly 
was particularly worrisome because it was difficult to refute or 
resist. 
 
¶7.  (U) Dulic confirmed that Serbian law stipulates a minimum 30-day 
period between the proclamation of elections and Election Day.  This 
means, Dulic noted, that to proceed with the December 9 election, he 
would need to announce no later than November 9.  Dulic told poloff 
that he expected Tadic to make a decision on October 28.  Foreign 
Minister Jeremic told the Ambassador to expect Tadic to decide by 
October 31. 
 
 
BELGRADE 00001463  002 OF 002 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (AVU) If he gets a December 9 Election Day, Tadic avoids the 
inevitable fallout from the Troika's report on Kosovo status 
negotiations, due to the UNSYG the following day.  The President's 
advantage, however, expires if he doesn't win on the first round.  In 
the run-up to a run-off, Tadic believes he would need Kostunica's 
support to counter SRS claims that Tadic had lost Kosovo -- and that 
support would not come cheap.  In courting SRS support for December 
elections, Tadic is playing a high stakes game at which he may risk 
the presidency itself (unlikely) and might have to forfeit election 
wins in certain municipalities (more likely).  It remains to be seen, 
however, whether the President can trump Kostunica in his own game by 
getting the Radicals to agree to Presidential elections over 
Kostunica's protests.  For now, the election date is not settled. 
Defense Minister Sutanovac, a DS insider, said October 25 he didn't 
know what would happen.  DSS advisor Parivodic told us the same.  We 
expect this question -- with its significant impact on events in the 
Kosovo endgame -- to be answered by the end of October.