Hanan Y Cohen  10/25/2007 05:25:36 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Hanan Y Cohen

Cable 
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UNCLAS        AMMAN 04277

SIPDIS
CXAMMAN:
    ACTION: ECON
    INFO:   RSO USAID AMB RAO CONS ISU PA POL DCM

DISSEMINATION: ECON
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB:DHALE
DRAFTED: POL:BBALL
CLEARED: DCM:DRUBINSTEIN, POL:ALEJLIC

VZCZCAJI576
RR RUEHC RUEHXK
DE RUEHAM #4277/01 2941503
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211503Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0660
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 004277 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: JO PGOV KDEM
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JORDAN: A PRIMER 
 
REF: AMMAN 2985 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary.  Preparations are well underway for November 
20 elections in Jordan, in which voters will select members 
of the lower house (Chamber of Deputies).  These elections 
are the second to take place under a reformed election law 
from 2001.  110 seats are at stake, among them six seats set 
aside for women, nine seats for Christians, three seats for 
Circassians or Chechens, and nine seats for bedouins.  The 
election law prescribes a set calendar during which  citizens 
declare their candidacy, the Interior Ministry approves those 
candidates, and campaigning begins.  The Ministry has already 
identified violations of the election law, and is promising 
to prosecute those who undertake further infractions.  While 
the Interior Ministry and candidates themselves are charged 
with monitoring the elections, the ability of civil society 
organizations to do so remains unclear.  End Summary. 
 
The Elections 
------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Elections for the 110 seats in Jordan's lower house 
are scheduled to take place on November 20.  According to 
public statements of Interior Minister Id al-Fayiz, 3.4 
million people (57% of Jordan's population) are eligible to 
vote.  Of those 3.4 eligible voters, 2.5 million (73% of 
those eligible) have obtained voter registration cards.  The 
large disparity between eligible voters and those with 
registration cards is due to non-voting (for parliamentary 
elections) members of the military, security services, and 
expatriate Jordanians. 
 
¶3.  (U) These polls are the second to take place under the 
2001 amendments to the election law.  That law lowered the 
voting age from nineteen to eighteen, merged voter 
registration into the national ID card, brought the judiciary 
into the process of counting and verification, increased the 
number of seats in Parliament, and increased the number of 
constituencies from which members are elected. 
 
Division of Seats 
----------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Before the last elections in 2003, a quota was set by 
law for women in the lower house.  This quota was set at six 
seats which are set aside for women candidates only.  There 
is no separate ballot for women, and no upper limit to the 
number of women candidates who can be elected.  The quota is 
filled on a national basis by the female candidates who 
obtain the top percentage of votes in their districts, but 
who do not win their districts outright.  Women candidates 
who are the top overall vote getters in their districts win 
their seats in the normal way - the quota is not applied to 
them.  While the law stipulates six seats reserved for women, 
theoretically the entire parliament could be composed of 
women if women candidates win outright - or earn the most 
votes of all candidates - in all of the districts. 
 
¶5.  (U) The quotas for Christians (nine seats) and 
Circassians/Chechens (three seats) are more straightforward. 
These seats are assigned based on census data to the 
districts where Christians, Circassians, and Chechens live. 
The top vote getters from each of these groups in each 
district wins the allotted seat. 
 
¶6.  (U) Nine seats in Jordan's parliament are set aside for 
bedouins.  There are three separate, specially delineated 
electoral districts in Jordan that are designed specifically 
to fill these bedouin seats - one in the north of the 
country, one in the middle, and one in the south.  Each 
district is allotted three seats. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Looking at how the non-quota seats are divided, 
there is quite a bit of rural/urban inequity in Jordan's 
electoral system.  Going by 2004 census data, the 
distribution of seats heavily discounts the votes from Amman. 
 While the Amman governorate is home to 38% of Jordan's 
population, it is only represented by 24% of the seats. 
Similarly, Zarqa claims 15% of Jordan's population, but only 
11% of the seats.  The mountain town of Karak, on the other 
hand, has just 4% of Jordan's population, but 11% of its 
parliamentary seats.  If seats in parliament were truly 
representative, Amman would gain thirteen seats and Zarqa 
would gain four, while Karak would lose up to seven seats. 
 
Candidate Lists and the Campaign Period 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) While many potential candidates have been 
unofficially running their campaigns, the official period of 
candidate registration will occur between October 21 and 
October 24.  All candidates pay a non-refundable 500 dinar 
(USD 700) fee.  There is then a period where the eligibility 
of candidates can be challenged in court.  This period will 
last from the end of candidate registration (October 24) 
until one week before the election (November 12).  Until 
November 12, the candidacy of those running is officially 
considered to be "under review".  Campaigning is allowed once 
a person's candidacy papers are filed.  However, if a 
candidate is challenged in court, they are not allowed to 
campaign until the court rules on whether or not they are 
allowed to run. 
 
¶9.  (U) In a public statement on October 1, Interior Minister 
al-Fayez reminded all candidates that those who campaign 
outside of the official period will be prosecuted according 
to the elections law.  The penalties in that law carry fines 
and/or jail time - up to five years hard labor.  The Minister 
noted that "some candidates have started to put up signs - a 
clear violation of the law".  He also commented on 
vote-buying and tribal endorsements, encouraging citizens 
"not to keep silent" on either.  On the subject of tribal 
endorsements, al-Fayiz stated that the Interior Ministry "is 
examining the issue" and will "take measures" if necessary. 
On October 5, the Ministry asked newspapers to stop 
publishing campaign ads or pseudo-campaign ads in an effort 
to create a level playing field for all. 
 
¶10.  (U) During the official campaign period (October 21 - 
November 19), the candidates are free to make speeches, post 
election propaganda, and go door-to-door.  There are 
restrictions on where campaign events can be held, however. 
Campaigning cannot take place in universities or schools of 
any kind, places of worship, "public streets", and government 
buildings. 
 
Monitoring 
---------- 
 
¶11.  (U) The High Committee for Elections is responsible for 
the preparation and execution of the election law.  The 
committee is chaired by the Minister of the Interior, and is 
also comprised of the Chief Justice of the Court of 
Cassation, along with a series of Interior Ministry 
officials:  the Director of the Civil Status Department, the 
Secretary General, the Director of the Passport Department 
 
SIPDIS 
(who prepares voter rolls) and the Director of the Electoral 
Department.  This national electoral commission is paralleled 
by committees in each of the twelve governorates, which are 
chaired by the governor and comprised of district court 
chiefs along with provincial officials.  All in all, there 
will be over 35,000 workers manning the polls on election 
day.  In an effort to educate Jordanians about how the 
electoral process works, the Interior Ministry has reportedly 
prepared an "election guide" that it will distribute via the 
governorates. 
 
¶12. (SBU) While the Ministry of the Interior and the GOJ have 
issued conflicting statements regarding elections observation 
by Jordanian NGOs, the Prime Minister announced on October 19 
that the National Center for Human Rights (NCHR) will be able 
to "follow" the voting and vote count on election-day.  Prior 
to the PM,s announcement, the GOJ floated the idea of having 
Jordanian NGOs "supervise" or "follow-up" on the elections, 
and at least four Jordanian NGOs and NGO coalitions have 
expressed an interest in monitoring the elections.  According 
to the constitution, candidates themselves (or their 
representatives) are explicitly authorized to monitor the 
elections, but there is no stipulation that clearly allows or 
prohibits non-candidates or organizations from monitoring 
elections.  The PM,s decision will allow 100 to 150 
representatives of the NCHR and affiliated civil society 
groups to visit voting and vote-counting stations.  The 
government has deliberately avoided using the terms 
"monitoring" or "observing" in favor of the phrase 
"following" the elections.  NGOs are also considering 
overseeing the election process from outside of polling 
stations. 
 
Timeline 
-------- 
 
¶13.  (U) The following is a timeline of Jordan's electoral 
calendar: 
 
August 6:  Final voter lists approved, Ministry of Interior 
forms election committees. 
 
October 21:  Start of candidacy declaration period. 
Candidates submit their names to the Ministry of Interior. 
Campaigning begins for candidates whose eligibility is not 
challenged in court.  Candidates are allowed to hold election 
rallies, post signs, and proclaim their platforms. 
 
October 24:  End of candidacy declaration period. 
October 24 - November 12:  Courts hear any potential 
challenges to candidates. 
 
November 12:  Campaigning begins for candidates whose 
eligibility was challenged in court, but who survived the 
challenge. 
 
November 19:  Campaigning ends. 
 
November 20:  Election day.  Polls open at 0700, and close at 
¶1900.  An extension of two hours may be added to the voting 
times if deemed necessary. 
 
November 22:  Interior Minister announces the official 
results of the election.  Official results are published in 
the official gazette. 
 
The new parliament will likely require a royal decree to come 
into session, as the electoral law stipulates October 1 as 
the standard day on which to open a parliamentary session. 
This was also the route taken after the 2003 election, which 
occurred in July. 
Hale