VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2368/01 2930629
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200629Z OCT 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7195
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7375
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8655

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002368 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN REFERENDA ON UN BID AND US-TAIWAN 
RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary:  News coverage of Taiwan's major Chinese-language 
dailies October 19 centered on the dispute over the arrangements for 
issuing referendum ballots during the 2008 legislative and 
presidential elections; YouTube's launching a site in traditional 
Chinese characters; and the returning of the body of Chen Chi-li, 
former leader of Taiwan's largest triad, Bamboo Union, who was 
imprisoned for killing Henry Liu, who wrote a critical biography of 
the late president Chiang Ching-kuo. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a news analysis in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" said US-Taiwan relations may be 
worsened by arrangements for issuing referendum ballots during the 
2008 presidential election.  Another "China Times" commentary said 
Taiwan may have to explain to the United States about its next step 
after the UN bid referendums cross the 50% validation threshold. 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" in an 
editorial criticized the US position toward Taiwan's UN referendums. 
 Meanwhile, the conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" editorialized that the DPP is only using the referendum 
votes as an aid to win the presidential election.  End summary. 
 
A) "Once the Threshold Handicap Is Resolved, US-Taiwan Relations 
Will Feel the Impact" 
 
Journalist Wu Tien-jung noted in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China 
Times" [circulation: 400,000] (10/19): 
 
"Once the Central Election Committee decides that the ballots of the 
presidential election and the two referenda on Taiwan's bid to the 
UN will be 'cast at the same time', then the probability will 
significantly increase that the referendum on 'applying for UN 
membership under the name of "Taiwan"' will cross the high 
validating threshold and be approved.  It can be expected that 
US-Taiwan relations will be further strained from now until March 
¶2008. 
 
"... Although the United States strongly opposes Taiwan's 
referendums on its UN bid, the messages conveyed by all parties were 
that the threshold for validating a referendum in Taiwan is too high 
for the UN referenda to be adopted.  In the future, should it find 
that the validating threshold is no longer a problem for the 'UN bid 
referenda,' how is the United States going to react?  One can expect 
that it will be more difficult to improve US-Taiwan relations until 
March 2008." 
 
B) "After the Referenda" 
 
A commentary in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" 
[circulation: 400,000] commented (10/19): 
 
"... If the same arrangements for simultaneously issuing and casting 
ballots for the legislative elections and the referendums [on 
anti-corruption and KMT party assets] are to be applied to the 
presidential elections, there will still be troubles mentioned 
above.  There can be only one advantage: the ballots may be issued 
'half-coercively' so that the turnout rates of the referendums will 
cross the 50% validating threshold... 
 
"As the Pan-Blue and the Pan-Green camps each have their own 
proposed referendum, the only way to avoid the situation that the 
rival camp reaches the 50% threshold while our own camp fails is to 
step up to mobilize supporters.  The argument being used to ease US 
pressure in the first place was that the two referenda will not be 
validated.  If the Blue and Green voters work smartly with the 
mobilization efforts, then the proposal to join the UN and the 
proposal to return to the UN will both exceed 50%.  Then the last 
and possibly the most important issue will be: how is Taiwan going 
to explain to the United States what the next step will be?" 
 
C) "Blocked by the US at Every Turn" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (10/19): 
 
"Taiwan watchers in the US may have been surprised by media reports 
on Wednesday that the military has already begun deployment of its 
newly developed Hsiung Feng II-E cruise missile and is on the verge 
of starting mass production. The White House must have been aware of 
this well in advance. 
 
"Several conservative think tank academics in the US -- most notably 
at the Cato Institute -- have been highly critical of Taiwan, 
accusing it of over-reliance on the US and claiming it is unwilling 
to defend itself. 
 
"The US government, meanwhile, is eager to hold up Taiwan's 
democracy as an example to the world, but when Taiwan asserts the US 
administration's favorite buzzword by holding a referendum, 
 
Washington changes the rules, criticizes Taipei and holds back on 
previously agreed weapons sales. 
 
"Then, when Taiwan, in its frustration over the lack of weapons 
available, begins to develop means of defending itself, the US 
frowns upon it and takes prompt action to block any move. 
 
"Washington, it seems, wants to have its cake and eat it too. 
 
"The document that dictates US policy on Taiwan -- the Taiwan 
Relations Act (TRA) -- states that the US is only allowed to sell 
Taiwan weapons 'of a defensive character.' Nowhere does it give the 
White House the right to dictate what the Taiwanese military can or 
cannot do. 
 
"Of course, the TRA also stresses the need to 'help maintain peace, 
security and stability in the Western Pacific,' but calling the 
Taiwanese government's UN referendum campaign a threat to regional 
stability -- as influential US officials have done -- is grossly 
exaggerating matters. 
 
"... The US' decades-long policy of strategic ambiguity over the 
Taiwan issue means no one -- including the Taiwanese government and 
the US itself -- knows whether Washington would send US troops to 
help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. 
 
"Meanwhile, the Bush administration's 'war on terror' and the 
unlimited nature of such a conflict means the US military is already 
stretched to its limits and will remain so for the foreseeable 
future. While its forces remain bogged down in the Middle East, 
there would be little domestic appetite for US troops to get 
involved in another war far from its shores. 
 
"This means that if the White House continues to hold back on 
weapons sales, then Taiwan must forge ahead and develop and build 
its own -- even at the risk of upsetting its best friend. 
 
"But even the mass production of these domestic missiles is now in 
jeopardy, as Washington has begun to put the squeeze on the export 
of key engine components, while the pan-blue camp has slashed the 
budget for production. 
 
"Washington has said many times in the past that it wants Taiwan to 
be in a strong position militarily to enable it to negotiate a 
peaceful settlement to the cross-strait issue with China on an equal 
footing. 
 
"The US' recent actions, juxtaposed with the relentless pace of 
China's military build-up, have shown those assertions to be nothing 
more than lip service." 
 
D) "Referendums Mustn't Be Used to Achieve Selfish Objectives" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/19): 
 
"... The electoral win [in the 2004 presidential election] has led 
the DPP to believe holding a referendum is one of the most effective 
strategies to win voter support.  To make this strategy even more 
effective, the DPP has proposed that during next year's presidential 
election, voters be issued two ballots at the same time -- one for 
the election and the other for the referendum.  Apparently the party 
thinks this procedure will increase the percentage of voters who 
cast the referendum ballot.  This plan is further evidence that the 
DPP is using the referendum as an aid to win the presidential battle 
and that its U.N.-membership-for Taiwan campaign is a political 
trick intended to sway voters.  Referenda are designed to allow the 
people to vote directly on disputable issues.  Advocates of the 
referendum argue that certain decisions are best determined directly 
by the people and claim that such direct votes are a mark of 
democracy.  The fact is, the referendum has been used by dictators 
such as Hitler and Mussolini, who used the practice to implement 
oppressive policies under the guise of populism.  If referendums are 
a good way for the public to express their opinions on public 
issues, why should elections of people's representatives such as 
city councilors and legislators, be held?  Voters in a referendum 
may be insufficiently informed about the questions they are asked, 
especially if the questions concern complicated issues.  In Taiwan, 
most of the people living in the urban areas of the north are highly 
educated, and therefore able to deliberate carefully and 
independently on political matters.  But residents of the south are 
much likely swayed by propaganda or large-scale advertising 
campaigns.  And the DPP is currently carrying out an expensive 
propaganda effort to promote the idea that the island should seek 
U.N. membership under the name of Taiwan.  As some opposition 
legislators have pointed out, the advertising campaign is being 
pushed at the taxpayers' expense.  Sadly, this party, with the word 
'democratic' in its name, is dong something very undemocratic." 
 
 
WANG